So with the proliferation of all these Senate modeling sites, it seems kind of silly to write up a full preview for Tuesday from scratch. Gonna seize on this new info and set lines for the races (spread and moneyline) and place $1,000 in fake bets on the key races, and see if I can make some fake Internet money. I will make it easier on myself to make money by having no vig.

Odds taken from fivethirtyeight.com on October 30th

There are essentially thirteen Senate races that matter on Tuesday. Three of them – West Virginia, Montana, and South Dakota – only matter because the people who currently represent those states are Democrats, and they will be replaced by Republicans. This puts the GOP halfway to the six seats it needs

Of the remaining seats, seven are held by Democrats (Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina) and three are held by Republicans (Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky). An even split of these ten would result in an evenly split Senate.

Alaska – Sen. Mark Begich (D) vs. Dan Sullivan (R)
Line – GOP -2; GOP -203

Alaska polling has been sparse and all over the goddamn place. There had been a general sense that Sullivan was extremely likely to win, but a number of internal polls have leaked over the past week that have thrown that into flux.

Bet - $50 on Begich money line (pays $151.50)

Arkansas – Sen. Mark Pryor (D) vs. Rep. Tom Cotton (R)
Line – GOP -5; GOP -900

Cotton has consistently led Pryor in the polls, and Arkansas has slid away from the Democrats over the past decade plus faster than any other state outside of West Virginia.

Bet - $100 on Cotton -5

Colorado – Sen. Mark Udall (D) vs. Rep. Cory Gardner (D)
Line – GOP -2; GOP -300

Udall is the third Dem incumbent named Mark who is a sizeable underdog for reelection, although his status is much more surprising than either of his redder state colleagues. Gardner has run a fantastic campaign, and Mark Udall whining about birth control hasn’t had as much cache as the Dems had expected. The race remains close – Udall started as a clear favorite – and Colorado’s transition to vote by mail leaves room for questioning the public polling showing Gardner ahead.

Bet - $50 on Udall money line (pays $200)

Iowa – Rep. Bruce Braley (D) vs. State Sen. Joni Ernst (R)
Line – GOP -1; GOP -203

Much like Colorado, Iowa started off with the Democratic candidate thought to be the clear favorite, but the campaign and national environment have shifted the polls and public perception. Braley is not as strong of a candidate as national Dems had hoped, and Ernst managed to navigate a crowded primary uniting all sides of the party. The race remains close, though Ernst has held a lead in most public polling. Going to take the money line here again, which would mean if I hit on one of the three Dems I’m taking so far, it’s at least break even, and two of three would be a nice profit.

Bet - $50 on Braley money line (pays $151.50)

Louisiana – Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) vs. Rep. Bill Cassidy (R)
Line – GOP -5; GOP -335

Louisiana features different rules than any of the other states, as all candidates are in a jungle primary, and if no one wins 50%, there will be a runoff on December 6th. It seems overwhelmingly likely that there will be a runoff because there is a tea party Republican peeling off 10% of the GOP vote, and all candidates are quite a ways off from a majority. I’d bet on a runoff even if I was only getting like 1/10 odds, and would love to parlay it with a few of the other surer things if this was real gambling.

Bet – pass

New Hampshire – Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs. former Sen. Scott Brown (R)
Line – Dem -3; Dem -488

New Hampshire has been a race showing Shaheen consistently ahead throughout, but Brown has closed the gap, and has even led in a few less reputable polls. He remains an underdog, but with the national mood as it is, it is not outside the realm of possibility that he wins.

Bet - $100 on Brown money line (pays $588)

North Carolina – Sen. Kay Hagan (D) vs. NC Speaker Thom Tillis (R)
Line – Dem -1; Dem -213

This race looks like it might end up the closest in the country, although Hagan has consistently held a narrow lead in the polls, and early voting numbers have been very good for Democrats. Tillis needs to steal a point or two off the Libertarian (always possible) and get the lion’s share of the undecideds (who lean GOP and disapprove of Obama). Let’s get wild here.

Bet - $200 on Tillis money line (pays $626)

Georgia – Businessman David Perdue (R) vs. Daughter of a Senator Michelle Nunn (D)
Line – GOP -1; GOP -186

An open seat in a red state with a decent nominee shouldn’t be trouble in a year like this, but Nunn has run a solid campaign, and Perdue has been dogged by some outsourcing issues from his business past. Like Louisiana, this race will go to a runoff if no one gets 50% on election day, although unlike Louisiana there are no other major party candidates on the ballot so this is less certain of an outcome. Nunn seemed to have momentum a week or two ago, but momentum is only as strong as not having a fucking anchor weighing your party down in the White House, and Perdue has pulled back ahead. I think he’ll end up winning, although it might require overtime.

Bet - $100 on Perdue -1

Kansas – Sen. Pat Roberts (R) vs. Businessman Greg Orman (I)
Line – Ind -0; Ind -104

In what has been by far the weirdest Senate contest of 2014, businessman Greg Orman finds himself in a coin flip with longtime GOP Senator Pat Roberts in uber red Kansas. There are other places on the Internet to read about it. This race has by far the largest confidence interval on 538, and rightfully so. I’ll put a small wager down on the Kansas GOP having a ground game to save Roberts’ ass.

Bet - $50 on Roberts money line (pays $102)

Kentucky – Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) vs. KY Sec State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)
Line – GOP -4; GOP -669

McConnell has faced a spirited challenge from Grimes, but it was always a big ask for her to actually win the race. It seems like it will be close. It seems like he will win.

Bet - $100 on McConnell -4

I think I have $200 left. I would like to parlay McConnell and Cotton and Sullivan -2 with that money. If I’m doing the math right, this pays $511.

Big picture predictions – GOP +7 Sen; GOP +12 House; Dem +3 Gov

Might babble about governors races if I get inebriated tomorrow night

yeah yeah, jh, now theimportant stuff:

Hunting: Alabama and Mississippi voters will decide whether to establish a constitutional right to hunt. Maine voters will decide whether to ban bear-baiting and using dogs to hunt bears. And the only statewide ballot questions in Michigan are two nearly identical proposals to reject state laws authorizing wolf hunting — but it doesn’t really matter how people vote on them, since the state’s legislature enacted a new law to ensure that its authorization of a wolf hunt would stand, even if voters reject the other two laws.

Bait-and-switch questions: Arkansas’s Issue 3 is titled “The Arkansas Elected Officials Ethics, Transparency, and Financial Reform Amendment of 2014.” Its most important effect, however, would be to lengthen term limits in the state’s legislature from a maximum of 8 years to 16.

Are we really voting on this? In general, state constitutions can be amended only by popular vote, and the overinclusiveness of those constitutions can lead to voters being asked to weigh in on some very mundane questions.
For example, New York voters will decide whether to allow the state legislature to distribute proposed legislation to its members electronically. Currently, a paper copy of every proposed bill must be placed on every member’s desk three days before voting, leading to the use of 19 million sheets of paper in every two-year session. The paper-bills requirement is in the constitution, so the legislature can’t stop the printing without voters’ permission.
Wyoming voters will decide whether nonresidents of the state may sit on the University of Wyoming board of trustees. Again, yes, that’s a matter in the state constitution that the legislature couldn’t change without voter approval.
And then there’s the issue of the Montana state auditor. Despite her title, the state auditor’s job is regulating the securities and insurance industries. State Auditor Monica Lindeen thinks that confuses the public, and she’s already started using the title “Commissioner of Securities and Insurance.” Making that change official requires amending the constitution, which legislators voted to do last year; now, voter approval is required.
But this is not the first time Montanans have weighed in on what the auditor should be called. In 2006, when the legislature put a question on the ballot asking whether to rename the office as “Insurance Commissioner,” 64 percent of voters rejected the proposal. Perhaps this time will be different.

Gambling: Eight states will vote on proposals to expand legal gambling. In two, the question is whether legislatively approved expansions should be ratified: in Massachusetts, voters will decide whether to go ahead with three casinos that the legislature authorized, while Californians will consider rejecting a state law that authorizes the North Fork band of Mono Indians to open a casino in the Central Valley, on a site 36 miles away from the actual tribal settlement. Another tribe that operates a nearby casino has led the opposition to off-reservation gambling.
Colorado, Rhode Island and South Dakota will decide whether to legalize more kinds of gambling games at existing facilities. (For example, blackjack is currently legal in Deadwood, S.D., but craps and roulette are not.) Kansas, South Carolina and Tennessee will vote on allowing raffles or lotteries as nonprofit fund-raising vehicles.

Michael Grimm, the Staten Island congressman most famous either for his 20 count federal indictment or for telling a reporter about one third his size--on camera--that he would "break you in half… like a boy," is evidently heading for a landslide victory.

Tbf, he's basically running against Bill de Blasio and Al Sharpton, neither of whom are much liked among the racist gun nuts of the Island. But it also doesn't hurt that his opponent seems dumber than a bag of hammers.

I loathe Grimm, but I find this really funny. Likewise Martha Coakley about to lose another statewide race in Massachusetts.

Grimm somehow made his misconduct into some anti-staten island bias. Amazing.

Californians too stupid to torpedo health insurers' regulatory capture:

SFGate wrote:Field Poll shows voters turning on malpractice, insurance propositions

Proposition 45, which would give the state insurance commissioner the power to approve or reject health insurance rate changes, is also struggling. The poll found 30 percent of likely voters in favor, 42 percent against and 28 percent undecided. That fell from 69 percent in favor in a Field Poll in early July.

Prop. 45’s leading supporters — unions and the advocacy group Consumer Watchdog — have raised $1.6 million, a small sum compared with the $42 million raised by major health insurers to fight the effort.

Speaking of Senate races, some guy named McFadden is running opposite noted Communist Al Franken for Franken's MN Senate seat.

McFadden's bright campaign idea? Propose his own plan to replace ACA. Looks like that might not work out for him.

gotta love this Minnesotan's grasp of the vernacular:

“Everybody thought they were going to get a clown when he came into office, and I like comedy as much as the next person, but he’s really kept his shoulder to the grindstone,” said Klemek, a 44-year-old home-school teacher.

It's the unintentional gag, get it? About the funnyman Senator? "You do, but you don't" - what's that even mean?

In other Senate races, I don't know much, but I'll take a fantasy flyer on Nunn in the GA senate race.

NH pisses me off. How does a vapid opportunist like Brown persuade any flinty Yankee to part with a vote for him?

As far as governors, I've decided CT would be better off without one.

The Daily News endorsement of Grimm is something

Desperate times call for desperate measures, and beyond all doubt we are desperate in considering the choice for Congress in the district representing Staten Island and southern Brooklyn.

In Domenic Recchia, the Democrats have fielded a candidate so dumb, ill-informed, evasive and inarticulate that voting for a thuggish Republican who could wind up in a prison jumpsuit starts to make rational sense.

At least Michael Grimm can string three sentences together in arguing that he deserves the presumption of innocence on federal criminal charges stemming from his past operation of a restaurant.

Should he be convicted, Grimm has promised to resign, paving the way for a match between two fresh candidates. All the better.

Recchia, a former councilman, is clueless as to the issues. He accomplished the unprecedented feat of failing to give a single coherent answer when he was interviewed hoping for the Daily News endorsement.

He was equally incoherent in debates. Even in his best showing, on Tuesday night, he couldn’t give a straight answer as to whether he supports a $10.10 minimum wage. He said no, then yes, then who knows what.

Once, when asked about foreign policy credentials, he boasted of having run a student-exchange program.

Sent to Washington, Recchia would be, at best, a cipher and, at worst, a dupe in an impotent Democratic House minority.

Grimm would have more power as part of the Republican majority, an advantage not to be taken lightly. Also a plus, he has been a clear voice for fixing broken immigration laws.

Unfortunately, he’s the only alternative when the mantra must be anyone but Recchia.

I didn't think there'd be a race in America that would make the Crist-Scott choice look appealing, but here we are.

In Arkansa, I'd be pretty shocked if Pryor manages to win, but turnout models might be off because there are two ballot initiatives that might get people who don't normally vote in midterms out to vote--one would be to eliminate dry counties, and the other provides a modest increase in the minimum wage. (The dry county one appears to be in some trouble, as the county line liquor stores have spent heavily to defeat it and Wal-Mart and convenience store chains largely didn't. The minimum wage one looks set to pass comfortably though.

Issue 3, the ethics/term limits bill is probably going to fail, but who knows. It's a product of political log rolling and an attempt to forestall a stronger ethics law that some good government types are trying to get on the ballot, which is why I voted no.

I think Grimm promised to resign only if convicted, which is not really much of a promise. But maybe I'm wrong about that.

Were I in that district, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't vote. Then again, my representative is Yvette Clarke, against whom I usually vote for the Republican unless there's a Weed Freedom candidate or something. She's fully as dumb as Recchia, and the scion of a crooked political family to boot.

It's pretty depressing.

Malloy-Foley "forum" during that coveted Sunday 8am TV time slot.

Foley manages to call Teagunner/independent candidate Joe Visconti, with repeal of CT gun safety laws high on his priorities list, "a great guy", while otherwise dodging that he himself feels gun owners shouldn't be "inconvenienced" by recently enacted gun safety laws.

He also issues dire warnings of 15-16% health insurance premium increases post-election. Wow, I would love him to bet me his house & his yacht on that.

He is a creep with a capital K: rich, entitled, evasive, yuck.

Now if only Malloy was markedly more appealing

Gonna be on Shreveport's NPR station tomorrow talking about the election. Also, going to an election watch party where with any luck, our county will no longer be dry. Now, here's the thing--I'm schedule to do an interview at about 10:30 pm tomorrow, and there's a very good chance I'll be a little drunk by then.

So, yeah, if you want a chance at hearing a slightly intoxicated (and hopefully well edited) TV talk about Arkansas politics, here's a handy link:

http://redriverradio.org/post/election- ... rcher-kent

Happy Election Day

i'll tell you if you're right in about 23 hours

got to vote for gun control and against less gun control. felt good.

i also voted for this crazy looking dude who is running for the WA Spureme Court:



he graduated with honors while getting his physics BS(and math minor) and he insisted that he be listed on the ballot as "John (Zamboni) Scannell".

apparently, no chance he wins because he's "not qualified" by the king county bar association, but seems like a very smart guy.

Hoping that we see favorable outcomes on the marijuana ballot measures, noticeably AK and OR for full legalization. Go pot.

FOX NEWS HAS CALLED ALL RACES FOR THE REPUBLICANS

They'll be hitting over .500, which is more than enough for Cooperstown