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Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby pacino » Tue Nov 04, 2014 16:15:24

food for thought from 538. the poll averages are likely mostly correct, just like the last several times. it seems Colorado does have a bit of a 'skew', but no states is especially excessive to claim overall polling bias or anything beyond going poll by poll and calling them out. dont try to trust internals.

My prediction? A Senate tie. just for kicks.
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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby pacino » Tue Nov 04, 2014 16:19:38

jamiethekiller wrote:
pacino wrote:you likely have local races, too, so vote anyway


i spent some time at lunch looking for a comprehensive website that compares candidates and i couldn't find one.

you got a link?

http://www.smartvoter.org/pa/ph/

plug in your address on the right of the page

go down to the bottom for PHilly: http://www.philadelphiavotes.com/en/vot ... candidates
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby TenuredVulture » Tue Nov 04, 2014 16:25:22

For the Dems to hold the Senate, turnout models have to be pretty far off--the Dems ground game would have be really, really good for this to happen I think. Or, there would have to be systematic polling errors in how polls are dealing with refusals and cell phones. In previous elections, however, neither of these two factors systematically biased the polls.
Be Bold!

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby pacino » Tue Nov 04, 2014 18:27:41

Voted, was 446. My wife updated her registration with her last name and it wasn't evident on the voter rolls. wtf
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby jerseyhoya » Tue Nov 04, 2014 19:00:20

Some polls are closed in Kentucky and Indiana

Let the fun begin

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby CalvinBall » Tue Nov 04, 2014 19:28:20

CNN has like 25 reporters on a wall.

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby CalvinBall » Tue Nov 04, 2014 19:32:08

Turnout was pretty high at my polling place. They even relocated it last minute from on campus to a church a few blocks away.

It might still be low, I don't know, but it feels like people care a bit more than in recent midterms.

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby Bucky » Tue Nov 04, 2014 19:54:14

i went in around noon, and I was #347. Around 1400 registered at my polling place. I'm thinking that's pretty darn good.

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby Polar Bear Phan » Tue Nov 04, 2014 20:01:00

McConnell projected to win at the close of polls. Holy shit...

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby jerseyhoya » Tue Nov 04, 2014 20:01:23

Holy crap

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby CalvinBall » Tue Nov 04, 2014 20:02:32

An incumbent in a deeply red state won! OMG

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby Polar Bear Phan » Tue Nov 04, 2014 20:05:28

If that CNN exit poll for the VA senate race is correct, D's are looking at long night...

{Warner was winning with only 50%}

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby Polar Bear Phan » Tue Nov 04, 2014 20:44:46

That VA Senate race is looking shockingly close right now.

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby BigEd76 » Tue Nov 04, 2014 21:03:26

Wolf wins PA. See ya Corbett

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby CalvinBall » Tue Nov 04, 2014 21:06:46

We did it

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby 1 » Tue Nov 04, 2014 21:10:44

Thank you, Roman Quinn
Fine. You wanna act like you're two? I'll act like I'm one.

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby pacino » Tue Nov 04, 2014 21:15:57

Let's get drunk
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby CalvinBall » Tue Nov 04, 2014 21:17:37

Gonna lose so many other races. Large victory among lots of crap.

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby jerseyhoya » Tue Nov 04, 2014 21:22:10

Virginia looks like it might be closer than North Carolina and New Hampshire

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Re: Midterms, Middle East & Middle America - Politics Thread

Unread postby pacino » Tue Nov 04, 2014 21:22:30

Going to completely change my job environment
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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