would be pretty impressive if the dems somehow turn the prediction models on their heads again

Wouldn't again require a first time?

jerseyhoya wrote:Wouldn't again require a first time?

yeah that time romney and company got stomped.

#unskew

2016 will at least be fun to win the presidency and take back the senate again.

The professional GOP political consulting world missed the mark pretty badly in 2012 because our internal polling was modeling a turnout universe that ended up being far too favorable to Romney. Dropoff from nonwhite voters and younger voters didn't occur in spite of self reported lack of enthusiasm compared to 2008. Democratic internals, public polling, and the prediction models did pretty well. Polling misses happen, and the models have the GOP around 3/4 to win the Senate, so they're giving a real chance for the Democrats to hold on (for comparison, Romney was at 8% in Silver's model to win the electoral college)...but it would be Democrats busting one of these aggregate models for the first time.

glad i could take part in voting corbett out (two weeks ago by absentee ballot).

ReadingPhilly wrote:glad i could take part in voting corbett out (two weeks ago by absentee ballot).

how dare you do that to my boss

jerseyhoya wrote:The professional GOP political consulting world missed the mark pretty badly in 2012 because our internal polling was modeling a turnout universe that ended up being far too favorable to Romney. Dropoff from nonwhite voters and younger voters didn't occur in spite of self reported lack of enthusiasm compared to 2008. Democratic internals, public polling, and the prediction models did pretty well. Polling misses happen, and the models have the GOP around 3/4 to win the Senate, so they're giving a real chance for the Democrats to hold on (for comparison, Romney was at 8% in Silver's model to win the electoral college)...but it would be Democrats busting one of these aggregate models for the first time.

are you agreeing it did happen?

CalvinBall wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:The professional GOP political consulting world missed the mark pretty badly in 2012 because our internal polling was modeling a turnout universe that ended up being far too favorable to Romney. Dropoff from nonwhite voters and younger voters didn't occur in spite of self reported lack of enthusiasm compared to 2008. Democratic internals, public polling, and the prediction models did pretty well. Polling misses happen, and the models have the GOP around 3/4 to win the Senate, so they're giving a real chance for the Democrats to hold on (for comparison, Romney was at 8% in Silver's model to win the electoral college)...but it would be Democrats busting one of these aggregate models for the first time.

are you agreeing it did happen?

Democrats turning the prediction models on their heads? If winning as a 92% favorite is turning the model on its head, then yes.

he pretty clearly meant the republican internal polling and #unskew website and slandering of Nasty Nate that was going on during the elections. the right was pretty convinced that nate, sam wang, etc etc were all wrong

If that's what he meant he picked a poor way to say it. Because that's not what he said.

it's calvin

i used the wrong word. sorry!

pacino wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:glad i could take part in voting corbett out (two weeks ago by absentee ballot).

how dare you do that to my boss

best. boss. ever.

has Wolf won yet? do i still need to go vote after work?

you likely have local races, too, so vote anyway

pacino wrote:you likely have local races, too, so vote anyway

i spent some time at lunch looking for a comprehensive website that compares candidates and i couldn't find one.

you got a link?