Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 04:17:07

pacino wrote:what would romney 'do' in egypt????

Have the slaves start constructing his pyramid?

(I know I'm late with this, but I couldn't resist)

by **slugsrbad** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 04:30:20

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 04:35:07

by **Bucky** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 07:32:53

logged on about midnight. on fb saw another one of those "romney wins debate #3" posters. "Posted about 4 hours ago".

by **CalvinBall** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 07:38:54

jerseyhoya wrote:
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Mitt Romney now leads Barack Obama 49-47 based on the last 3 nights of our national tracking, all pre-debate though

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
PPP national tracking has Romney up 2, 49-47 (was tied yesterday). Romney up 9 w/ indys. Sample is D+6.

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
PPP daily has Obama approval at 45/51, Romney more favorable (+5) than Obama (-2). Among indys, Romney its an 18 pt gap (+9 for R, -9 for O)

One last point before I call it a night.

Nate tells you guys Obama is 70% to win the election and his odds are strengthening not weakening, but man, look at those two performances tonight and who acted like the guy who needed to shake things up compared to the guy who was completely comfortable not making any waves. I guess the Dem response to that is Romney's team didn't feel comfortable having him engage the president fully on foreign policy issues, but I think this evening said a good bit about both camps' polls and where they think the race is headed. Obama's crew thought he needed to try and disqualify Romney among undecideds/swing voters and/or rile up the base. Romney's group figured him clearing a bar of acceptability on the Commander in Chief question among swing voters was all that was required from tonight to win the election. The inclination toward prevent defense might be ill advised even if you're actually winning, but that they'd choose to go there says something (and you guys would say the 'something' is they knew Romney couldn't hang trading blows; I disagree, but I guess that's an explanation).

I picked out PPP's poll from tonight to lead the post because it seems to really get at Romney's edge among indy voters and his (sudden) improvement in favorability ratings. The president seems to be in an increasing amount of trouble electorally, regardless of how 538 is cooking up these numbers.

We'll know for sure in a couple of weeks (or sooner if the polls radically change), and I'll take enough beating if Romney loses and do enough crowing if Romney wins that me sticking my neck out here isn't particularly interesting. But in all seriousness I think the race is a complete tossup at the moment, and if you put a gun to my head I'd say Romney is going to win.

If the president is in trouble electorally where does that put Romney?

by **jamiethekiller** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 07:44:27

yes, 538 is 'cooking' the numbers.

how anyone can feel safe with romney in charge blows my mind. he wants to spend 3 trillion more in military but not go to work. he's called russia and iran our biggest threats already. talked down about pakistan even though they are in a position of power.

dude has world war written all over him

by **JUburton** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 08:50:13

Obama continues to poll favorably in Ohio and if he wins that Romney needs to get VA, get NV, CO, and IA or swap WI with any of them. It's a long road to the White House without Ohio and he's more than a 2:1 dog there right now. The election absolutely feels closer than 70:30, but Ryan Howard's 30 HRs and 120 RBIs feels like more than a 2 win player. It just doesn't work out that way.

by **thephan** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 08:56:21

The Iranian beach front property map is a little deceptive. Certainly the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman are open water, but the Caspian Sea is not a usable shipping route. The EuroAsia Canal is nothing more then a discussion, and the Volga–Don Canal goes no were useful. [url=http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=48.57,44.15&spn=0.1,0.1&t=m&q=48.57,44.15]map[\url].

I have to think that Mitt got tripped up with Syria's port facility is Russia's southern most naval base, thus Russia defends Syria and wants to be hands off at the UN. That also get you the Russia-Iran-Syria connect the dots.

by **Grotewold** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 08:59:00

jamiethekiller wrote:yes, 538 is 'cooking' the numbers.

Wasn't he insanely accurate in 2008?

by **drsmooth** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 09:05:53

thephan wrote:The Iranian beach front property map is a little deceptive. Certainly the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman are open water, but the Caspian Sea is not a usable shipping route. The EuroAsia Canal is nothing more then a discussion, and the Volga–Don Canal goes no were useful.

I may be wrong; isn't part of the issue with that boner that Syria doesn't border Iran?

by **Woody** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 09:06:57

Back alley through Turkey

by **CalvinBall** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 09:09:27

However, Romney should that he was knowledgable during the debate. Well outside of geography I guess.

by **JUburton** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 09:11:56

Grotewold wrote:
jamiethekiller wrote:yes, 538 is 'cooking' the numbers.

Wasn't he insanely accurate in 2008?

49/50 states and pretty close in the pop. That election was a blowout though. This one probably won't be that good barring a big swing in the polls.

by **Grotewold** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 09:14:50

JUburton wrote:
Grotewold wrote:
jamiethekiller wrote:yes, 538 is 'cooking' the numbers.

Wasn't he insanely accurate in 2008?
49/50 states and pretty close in the pop. That election was a blowout though. This one probably won't be that good barring a big swing in the polls.

I thought he nailed all the senate races, too, though

by **thephan** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 09:23:03

drsmooth wrote:
thephan wrote:The Iranian beach front property map is a little deceptive. Certainly the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman are open water, but the Caspian Sea is not a usable shipping route. The EuroAsia Canal is nothing more then a discussion, and the Volga–Don Canal goes no were useful.

I may be wrong; isn't part of the issue with that boner that Syria doesn't border Iran?

That is true as well. Iraq and Turkey are sort of in the way, but the way the line was delivered it sounded (to me) as if Iran is landlocked and that Syria is its shipping port.

by **drsmooth** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 09:25:52

Woody wrote:Back alley through Turkey

Uhhh, I'm not sure Turkey's cool with that

by **thephan** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 09:27:21

Woody wrote:Back alley through Turkey

Interesting you should mention that... In the 80's Germany had a flow of trucks coming up through Turkey full of oil. That important fact is to POTUS' point that "all nations" participating in the embargo has been critical in back breaking sanctions currently crushing the Iranian's.

To Smooth's point, Turkey is not cool with it anymore. They have much more skin in the game these days.

by **JUburton** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 09:30:30

Grotewold wrote:
JUburton wrote:
Grotewold wrote:
jamiethekiller wrote:yes, 538 is 'cooking' the numbers.

Wasn't he insanely accurate in 2008?
49/50 states and pretty close in the pop. That election was a blowout though. This one probably won't be that good barring a big swing in the polls.

I thought he nailed all the senate races, too, though

Yeah, I think he was perfect (or nearly perfect) on those too. I mean, the guy developed PECOTA. It's not like he doesn't have a track record of good statistical models.

by **Youseff** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 09:31:51

jerseyhoya wrote:
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Mitt Romney now leads Barack Obama 49-47 based on the last 3 nights of our national tracking, all pre-debate though

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
PPP national tracking has Romney up 2, 49-47 (was tied yesterday). Romney up 9 w/ indys. Sample is D+6.

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
PPP daily has Obama approval at 45/51, Romney more favorable (+5) than Obama (-2). Among indys, Romney its an 18 pt gap (+9 for R, -9 for O)

One last point before I call it a night.

Nate tells you guys Obama is 70% to win the election and his odds are strengthening not weakening, but man, look at those two performances tonight and who acted like the guy who needed to shake things up compared to the guy who was completely comfortable not making any waves. I guess the Dem response to that is Romney's team didn't feel comfortable having him engage the president fully on foreign policy issues, but I think this evening said a good bit about both camps' polls and where they think the race is headed. Obama's crew thought he needed to try and disqualify Romney among undecideds/swing voters and/or rile up the base. Romney's group figured him clearing a bar of acceptability on the Commander in Chief question among swing voters was all that was required from tonight to win the election. The inclination toward prevent defense might be ill advised even if you're actually winning, but that they'd choose to go there says something (and you guys would say the 'something' is they knew Romney couldn't hang trading blows; I disagree, but I guess that's an explanation).

I picked out PPP's poll from tonight to lead the post because it seems to really get at Romney's edge among indy voters and his (sudden) improvement in favorability ratings. The president seems to be in an increasing amount of trouble electorally, regardless of how 538 is cooking up these numbers.

We'll know for sure in a couple of weeks (or sooner if the polls radically change), and I'll take enough beating if Romney loses and do enough crowing if Romney wins that me sticking my neck out here isn't particularly interesting. But in all seriousness I think the race is a complete tossup at the moment, and if you put a gun to my head I'd say Romney is going to win.

Romney lost the debate by most accounts so he must have been throwing it because he was so confident. Got it.

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Tue Oct 23, 2012 09:32:17

pacino wrote:
CalvinBall wrote:first debate obama was bad. polls showed it. i think most dems agreed that to be the case.

romney wasnt that good tonight. polls show obama won by a decent margin. republicans think romney won.

whatever.

now you got it.

When the Romney surrogates have to answer questions about the post-debate polls this morning by starting with "well it depends on what you mean by "winning,'" then yeah, it wasn't a win for Romney. The question is whether it cost him any more of the momentum than what he'd already been losing over the past week.

Archived

Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread

Re: Binders Full of Woman: Politics Thread