I hope you RECALL that this is the POLITICS thread

by **jerseyhoya** » Tue Jul 17, 2012 22:48:14

An interesting thing about turnout that I think the average citizen would be surprised by is that it has steadily increased in the last three elections, and the last election was the highest turnout of voting age population since 1968 (as was 2004).

Code: Select all: Year Voting Pop. Votes %VAP 1960 109,672,000 68,838,204 62.77% 1964 114,090,000 70,644,592 61.92% 1968 120,328,186 73,211,875 60.84% 1972 140,776,000 77,718,554 55.21% 1976 152,309,190 81,555,789 53.55% 1980 164,597,000 86,515,221 52.56% 1984 174,468,000 92,652,680 53.11% 1988 182,630,000 91,594,693 50.15% 1992 189,044,500 104,405,155 55.23% 1996 196,511,000 96,456,345 49.08% 2000 205,815,000 105,586,274 51.30% 2004 221,256,931 122,295,345 55.27% 2008 230,782,870 132,645,504 57.48%

I'd guess we see something like 55% so around 2004. Partisans will be motivated, and I think turnout bumps when things are contentious like now. Dem turnout will be down from 2008, but I'd imagine GOP turnout will be steady if not higher to balance that out some.

by **TenuredVulture** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 00:07:19

Not to go over wonky, but there was some research a few years back that I found pretty persuasive that argued turnout had been underestimated over the last 10-20 years or so, because the basic formula used was voters/adults. Of course, not all adults are eligible voters--some are resident aliens, and some are felons.

I only mention that because my guess--somewhere between 2008 and 2004 turnout--is uninteresting.

by **MoBettle** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 00:45:39

They really don't take those groups out of the equation? Is there a reason for that?

by **jerseyhoya** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 00:50:02

They're part of the voting age population

% of registered voters is another commonly used stat. % of voting eligible population is a thing apparently, but is probably really complicated to compute and doesn't come up easily on my google search.

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 03:29:52

drsmooth wrote:
dajafi wrote:Speculation now is that Romney's effective tax rate in 2009, because of losses after the slump, might have been... zero. Legal, totally, but bad optics is an understatement.

...
and he's had years to "smooth" his "financials"

Wasn't there something floating around during the primaries about Romney having investments in Iranian Oil which he sold off (or shifted to shell corps or whatever) around 2009 so they wouldn't show on his 2010 and later tax returns?

Don't know if I should mention the $77k tax deduction for Rafalca Romney, their horse that went to horsie finishing school, because it's so frikkin' hilarious (like, was there a formal prom or cotillion?).

by **dajafi** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 06:58:15

Thanks. Thought we'd cracked 60 percent in 2008, but evidently not.

by **pacino** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 07:30:31

how the hell's this guy have 100 mil in a goddamn IRA?

by **drsmooth** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 08:40:21

pacino wrote:how the hell's this guy have 100 mil in a goddamn IRA?

the explanations I've heard suggest it results from stratospheric appreciation of investments made in Bain-generated business opportunities

That seem less likely to me than some kind of rollover of other tax-favored 'legacy' accounts (an ESOP, cash value of a defined-benefit pension, etc), but in truth none of us knows because our job as subjects is merely to genuflect before Croesus, not jab pins in his ass

by **thephan** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 09:56:45

pacino wrote:how the hell's this guy have 100 mil in a goddamn IRA?

Well, there are loop holes. There are plans like employee ownership that can see great appreciation, like stocks in the open market, so that the employee benefits at time of sale or other defined buyout. There are pension and other vehicle that can ultimately be shifted into an IRA. There are key employee rules played against total compensation that yield complex formulas.

Here is a place to visit to see a lot of figures and configurations of retirement compensation for 2012: http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=248482,00.html

It is conceivable to work the rule to have your retirement plumped nicely.

by **jerseyhoya** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 11:28:06

Bombing in Damascus kills three key members of Assad's inner circle

Too bad they didn't blow up Assad too

by **thephan** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:16:37

Randomly found a Romney HQ in the back of a mixed use building a mile from my house. Tucked between a sleepy's and a Mexican joint that could use diners. Because it has big shopping center windows, I can see it is just stuffed full of thousands of signs. Place has been empty for 4 or 5 years, so go economic development!

by **drsmooth** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 12:24:57

liked this for the mashup of semi-related semi-political items, plus jameson's reference, and jell-o:

[a guy tells a story] about going to a friend's wedding, walking up to the bar, and ordering a Scotch.
"How much?"
"It's an open bar," said the bartender, "what can I get you?"
"A chair," said Ken.

I bring this up to note that some in the GOP, when it comes to the race card, are like recovering alcoholics at an open bar. They stay away from race and, instead, focus on the economy, direction of the country and foreign policy differences, but slide one Jameson's in front of them and they're asking to do Jell-O shots off the waitress's tits.

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 14:45:11

wait, wut?

“He told us that he had gotten the uniform from his father,” George Romney, then the Governor of Michigan, whose security detail was staffed by uniformed troopers. “He told us that he was using it to pull over drivers on the road. He also had a red flashing light that he would attach to the top of his white Rambler. We thought it was all pretty weird. We all thought, ‘Wow, that’s pretty creepy.’ And after that, we didn’t have much interaction with him.”

That last sentence made me laff.

(I have an idea for the pic in that link. Gimme a couple of minutes...)

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 14:59:40

by **TenuredVulture** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 15:11:19

jerseyhoya wrote:They're part of the voting age population

% of registered voters is another commonly used stat. % of voting eligible population is a thing apparently, but is probably really complicated to compute and doesn't come up easily on my google search.

Here's the citation for the article I referenced.

http://journals.cambridge.org/action/di ... aid=103922

Motor voter substantially increased registered voters, so you can't really compare turnout among registered voters over time.

by **TenuredVulture** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 15:16:58

MoBettle wrote:They really don't take those groups out of the equation? Is there a reason for that?

It's pretty hard to get at. There's not much money for this kind of research, and soon there's going to be less if certain Republicans get their way.

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 16:26:41

Phan In Phlorida wrote:wait, wut?

“He told us that he had gotten the uniform from his father,” George Romney, then the Governor of Michigan, whose security detail was staffed by uniformed troopers. “He told us that he was using it to pull over drivers on the road. He also had a red flashing light that he would attach to the top of his white Rambler. We thought it was all pretty weird. We all thought, ‘Wow, that’s pretty creepy.’ And after that, we didn’t have much interaction with him.”

That last sentence made me laff.

(I have an idea for the pic in that link. Gimme a couple of minutes...)

uhhhh...

by **traderdave** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 16:34:36

“He told us that he had gotten the uniform from his father,” George Romney, then the Governor of Michigan, whose security detail was staffed by uniformed troopers. “He told us that he was using it to pull over drivers on the road. He also had a red flashing light that he would attach to the top of his white Rambler. We thought it was all pretty weird. We all thought, ‘Wow, that’s pretty creepy.’ And after that, we didn’t have much interaction with him.”

Not to mention illegal.

by **Bucky** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 17:05:14

but you mentioned it

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Wed Jul 18, 2012 18:24:52

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:
Phan In Phlorida wrote:wait, wut?

“He told us that he had gotten the uniform from his father,” George Romney, then the Governor of Michigan, whose security detail was staffed by uniformed troopers. “He told us that he was using it to pull over drivers on the road. He also had a red flashing light that he would attach to the top of his white Rambler. We thought it was all pretty weird. We all thought, ‘Wow, that’s pretty creepy.’ And after that, we didn’t have much interaction with him.”

That last sentence made me laff.

(I have an idea for the pic in that link. Gimme a couple of minutes...)

uhhhh...

Phan In Phlorida wrote:

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