Election Day Thread

Postby Bakestar » Thu Nov 06, 2008 18:00:00

jerseyhoya wrote:
Bakestar wrote:I didn't observe too closely, but I hear Franken ran a (predictably) amateurish campaign.


Also, looks like Obama has a good shot at picking up the electoral vote from NE-02.

I kind of like the way that NE and ME allocate their electoral votes (somewhat proportional, but with a "sweetener" of two guaranteed votes to reward winning the state), but as a Democrat, I think it'd unfairly reward the Republican candidate, who would win all of the EVs in proportionally more of the 3 and 4 EV states, while eating away at the margins in the bigger Democratic states (NY, CA, PA, etc.) At least I think so.

It'd be interesting if someone ran a simulation of the 2008 election based on the assumption that every state allocated its EVs the way NE and ME do. Maybe Nate Silver would do this. Wouldn't really answer too much, though, because a change in the way the EVs are allocated would change the way candidates campaign, etc.


I think we're collecting all the McCain-Obama results by CD next week. I'll let you know what we come up with, if nothing else shows up first.


That should give a pretty good idea, thanks.

(States won x 2) + CDs won + Wash. DC (if applicable/Democrat)
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Postby phdave » Thu Nov 06, 2008 18:12:26

The nice thing about the Democrats falling short of the 60 Senators goal is that now Lieberman has no leverage. He had his maximum leverage at 49-49-2 but he would have also had some pretty good leverage at 58-40-2.

Looks like he is now finally feeling consequences for his actions.
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Postby Philly the Kid » Thu Nov 06, 2008 19:29:12

good discussion with Dean Baker on Obamas economic challenges


there are a few minutes of id and top of the hour news... starts about 7 minutes in on the stream...you can slide it over -- the second half of show is other calif stuff but Dean Baker's interview is interesting...

Dean Baker runs this org

Baker's bio

Mentions this person for head of the Fed, (a republican too -- good cross the aisle gesture type move)

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Postby phdave » Thu Nov 06, 2008 21:59:20

BuddyGroom wrote:BTW, now that the election is over, shame on any Democrat or liberal columnist or whatever that made fun of John McCain for his age. Look at the nation's demographics - early 70s just isn't that old anymore. McCain is roughly the same age as my mother, who, relatively speaking, is one of the most active, youthful, progressive and interesting people I know.

I think the calling McCain old stuff was never much of a factor, but it was beneath the people who used that approach - or should have been beneath them.


Considering a possible McCain death in office...Not a bug but a feature?

I mean, I have to tell you if I heard once, I heard 1,000 times from people, and I never said this, never said this on the air because you just don't say these things, but I heard a million times from people, "I'm going to vote for John McCain and, you know, I mean, he's old. Maybe we get Sarah Palin in the first term." You know what I mean?
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Postby Woody » Thu Nov 06, 2008 22:08:08

It's not as if those have been your typical 72 years, though, either. They've been pretty hard ones--including a plane crash, 5 years in torturous captivity, and at least two bouts with melanoma (not your garden variety "oh it's just skin cancer" cancer)
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Postby Woody » Thu Nov 06, 2008 22:19:15

Team Obama, Pull Marketing Ninjas

http://www.change.gov
you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?

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Postby TenuredVulture » Thu Nov 06, 2008 22:32:25

phdave wrote:
BuddyGroom wrote:BTW, now that the election is over, shame on any Democrat or liberal columnist or whatever that made fun of John McCain for his age. Look at the nation's demographics - early 70s just isn't that old anymore. McCain is roughly the same age as my mother, who, relatively speaking, is one of the most active, youthful, progressive and interesting people I know.

I think the calling McCain old stuff was never much of a factor, but it was beneath the people who used that approach - or should have been beneath them.


Considering a possible McCain death in office...Not a bug but a feature?

I mean, I have to tell you if I heard once, I heard 1,000 times from people, and I never said this, never said this on the air because you just don't say these things, but I heard a million times from people, "I'm going to vote for John McCain and, you know, I mean, he's old. Maybe we get Sarah Palin in the first term." You know what I mean?


Hmm. Sarah Palin supporters: Calling for the death of not one, but two Presidential candidates. I think the Secret Service might want to pay some of these people a visit.

Seriously--do they want to run this country like the late Roman Empire?
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Postby Barry Jive » Thu Nov 06, 2008 22:36:22

dajafi wrote:Exit polls of 2004 vs. 2008, from 538:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ ... ually.html

Very interesting. Of course it's impossible to break out how much of that was having more money/organization, being a more personally appealing candidate, and actual partisan/ideological shifts. Or how much of it will sustain for future Democratic candidates, for that matter. But it's more data supporting the idea that they have a chance to build something sustainable here.


The funniest part about the exit polls (which, I found, one person mentioned in the comments but only after I'd thought of it myself) was that Obama was -1 in the "Other Religion" demographic...which includes Muslims.
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Postby philliesphhan » Thu Nov 06, 2008 22:50:26

TheDude24 wrote:Fun fact: Barack Obama is only 1 year, 3 months, and 14 days older than Jamie Moyer.


Image
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Postby philliesphhan » Thu Nov 06, 2008 22:50:36

Woody wrote:It's not as if those have been your typical 72 years, though, either. They've been pretty hard ones--including a plane crash, 5 years in torturous captivity, and at least two bouts with melanoma (not your garden variety "oh it's just skin cancer" cancer)


I also imagine being president would be pretty stressful
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Postby TenuredVulture » Thu Nov 06, 2008 23:16:28

Woody wrote:Team Obama, Pull Marketing Ninjas

http://www.change.gov


I just applied for a job!
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Postby jerseyhoya » Thu Nov 06, 2008 23:18:15

You can stay on my couch while you look for an apartment to rent after Obama appoints you to his senior staff. We can make fun of my roommate for his LJ Smith jersey.

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Postby TenuredVulture » Thu Nov 06, 2008 23:20:19

jerseyhoya wrote:You can stay on my couch while you look for an apartment to rent after Obama appoints you to his senior staff. We can make fun of my roommate for his LJ Smith jersey.


I'm not sure I want to relocate though. I'd like to telecommute.
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Postby TenuredVulture » Thu Nov 06, 2008 23:26:04

Image

Image
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Postby TenuredVulture » Fri Nov 07, 2008 00:22:07

Rachel Maddow's talk me down lacks its pre-election hysteria.
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Postby phdave » Fri Nov 07, 2008 01:00:10

I learned the other day that White Supremacists are Obama supporters and are naturally inclined towards leftist policies.

So why would white supremacists want to kill a black man about to be elected president?. It just makes no sense.
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Postby Bucky » Fri Nov 07, 2008 01:04:08

that's pretty bigoted of you, grouping all white supremacists together as if they weren't individuals. You may hurt their feelings.

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Postby dajafi » Fri Nov 07, 2008 01:38:14

This is a pretty cool page showing county-by-county results:

http://politicalwire.com/aggregator/ele ... sults.html

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Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Nov 07, 2008 10:23:53

Unemployment up to 6.5%. Yikes.

Say it with me now, the Bush-Pelosi-Obama recession. I'm just practicing for 2010.

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Postby Mountainphan » Fri Nov 07, 2008 10:25:18

jerseyhoya wrote:Unemployment up to 6.5%. Yikes.

Say it with me now, the Reid-Pelosi-Obama recession. I'm just practicing for 2010.


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