Presidential

Not going to spend a whole lot of time going over this because everyone and their mother have opined on it. I went through and wrote down what I thought would be the outcome in each state, and McCain looks to be about five points away nationally to making this interesting.

I have Obama winning the Kerry states, plus VA, OH, FL, IA, NM, NV and CO for 338 electoral votes.

The five closest states I have McCain winning are NC, MO, ND, IN, and GA. The five closest Obama wins are FL, OH, VA, CO, and NV.

I am guessing the popular vote will come in something like 52.5-46-1.5.

I think the election will be called at 11 PM when California closes.

Senate

Significantly uglier for the GOP are these down ballot races. Seriously, it’s bad. Historically so.

Of all the contested Senate races, the only one I don’t have any sort of feel for is Minnesota. The weird late news about Coleman’s wife getting money is mucking up what looked like a narrow Coleman win last week, plus there’s a third party guy drawing a large segment of the vote.

Anyhow Dem pickups, in order of largest win, to closest:

Virginia
New Mexico
Alaska
Colorado
Oregon
New Hampshire
North Carolina

The two interesting ones then in order for the Dems to get from 58 to 60 are Minnesota and Georgia. Georgia goes to a runoff if no one gets 50%, which is completely possible with how close it is, and a Libertarian on the ballot. With African American turnout high, I’m gonna guess we’ll see a runoff. There’s a decent chance this would end up being the 60th seat, which would lead to another month of politics fun. I talked about Minnesota above. I think I’ll put a thumb on Coleman’s side of the scale and make the homer pick, but really it could go either way.

Two further GOP seats worth watching are McConnell in Kentucky and Wicker in Mississippi. In both cases, I think we’ll hold on by 5%. Kentucky closes early, so if McConnell goes down by 8 or whatever, it is a sign that I need to switch from whiskey to rubbing alcohol.

I’ll say Landrieu will hold on by 10% or so, and the next closest Dem held seat will be Lautenberg in NJ, and he’ll win by 15% at least.

End result – 56-41-2 Dems, with Georgia to be settled in a runoff

House

At my office, we’re tracking 108 races tomorrow night, so I guess that’s the universe of possibly competitive races. The number where the outcome is really in doubt tomorrow is probably more like 50.

I don’t think anyone here really cares enough for me to waste a ton of time talking about individual races, plus I’d just be talking out of my ass on half of them. I’m going to make four lists: GOP pickups of Dem seats, Dem pickups of GOP incumbents, Dem pickups of GOP open seats, and then the 25 seats I think are the closest and will determine where the number of Democratic pickups falls between say 15 and 40.

GOP pickups of Dem seats

AL-02 (Open)
FL-16
NH-01
PA-11
TX-22

Dem pickups of GOP incumbents

AK-AL
CO-04
FL-08
FL-21
FL-24
FL-25
ID-01
IL-10
MI-07
MI-09
MN-06
NV-03
NY-29
NC-08
PA-03
VA-02

Dem pickups of GOP open seats

AZ-01
CA-04
IL-11
KY-02
MN-03
NM-01
NM-02
NY-13
NY-25
OH-15
OH-16
VA-11

Races to watch

AL-02
AL-05
CA-04
CT-04
FL-21
FL-25
GA-08
IL-10
IN-03
KS-02
LA-06
MN-03
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-03
NJ-05
NJ-07
OH-01
OH-02
PA-03
PA-11
PA-12
WA-08
WY-AL

So I guess I’m picking the Dems to pick up 24 seats. I’d say the most likely range is anything from like 20-35. LA-04 is having its primary runoffs, so that could be the 25th seat we lose when they have the runoff in a month.

jerseyhoya wrote:S

Two further GOP seats worth watching are McConnell in Kentucky and Wicker in Mississippi. In both cases, I think we’ll hold on by 5%. Kentucky closes early, so if McConnell goes down by 8 or whatever, it is a sign that I need to switch from whiskey to rubbing alcohol.

Jack Daniels is made in Tennessee.

I haven't been following the governor's races at all. I think we're supposed to lose Missouri, and have a shot to pick up an open seat in North Carolina, and rewin the Washington State race that was stolen four years ago (PtK, take note). I think losing Indiana is also a possibility.

So I'll say Dems +1 in Governor's races.

And I think I'm going to pick myself up a flask of JD for tomorrow night actually. I am working all night, so getting trashed at my desk while I watch my party slink into permanent minority status sounds like a plan.

jerseyhoya wrote:I haven't been following the governor's races at all. I think we're supposed to lose Missouri, and have a shot to pick up an open seat in North Carolina, and rewin the Washington State race that was stolen four years ago (PtK, take note). I think losing Indiana is also a possibility.

So I'll say Dems +1 in Governor's races.

And I think I'm going to pick myself up a flask of JD for tomorrow night actually. I am working all night, so getting trashed at my desk while I watch my party slink into permanent minority status sounds like a plan.

You're going to have to take you Lacoste shirt and start up an elitist country club party where people of good breeding can sip Martinis and talk about their handicap and why the Hamptons just aren't what they used to be.

TenuredVulture wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:I haven't been following the governor's races at all. I think we're supposed to lose Missouri, and have a shot to pick up an open seat in North Carolina, and rewin the Washington State race that was stolen four years ago (PtK, take note). I think losing Indiana is also a possibility.

So I'll say Dems +1 in Governor's races.

And I think I'm going to pick myself up a flask of JD for tomorrow night actually. I am working all night, so getting trashed at my desk while I watch my party slink into permanent minority status sounds like a plan.

You're going to have to take you Lacoste shirt and start up an elitist country club party where people of good breeding can sip Martinis and talk about their handicap and why the Hamptons just aren't what they used to be.

I'm reading The Gold Coast by Nelson DeMille right now. It's close enough to that.

I really wish we could go back to the days where genteel poverty meant getting invitations to stay the summer in Newport.

I really have an ancestor named Chalmers Crist who really did blow a family fortune.

I think the dems get to 60, but then Lieberman defects, as if he hasn't already done so, and it goes back to 59.

I'm not predicting the pres race because either Obama wins or there are riots.

To ptk, I agree there were concerns about the GOP stealing this election 4-6 months ago, but it would be almost impossible now. They would have to rig a half dozen states, many of them run by democrats, across a variety of polling systems (different computer companies, some with paper trails, etc). It would be next to impossible. That said, if McCain wins this thing, I'm not buying the bradley effect as the reason.

Is Campbell Brown hot or is it just me?

I predict Obama will not get 50%+ of the popular vote.

so 60%?

60% would qualify as "+".

VoxOrion wrote:I predict Obama will not get 50%+ of the popular vote.

fine

break it down for us

Newt Gingrich is about as delusional as vox right now.

pacino wrote:Newt Gingrich is about as delusional as vox right now.

Well please tell us, o' wise one, your prediction for tomorrow.

Obama is for a playoff in college football. Maybe I should vote for him.

Mountainphan wrote:

pacino wrote:Newt Gingrich is about as delusional as vox right now.

Well please tell us, o' wise one, your prediction for tomorrow.

see jerseyhoya's posts

jerseyhoya wrote:Obama is for a playoff in college football. Maybe I should vote for him.

While McCain says some junk about steroids, then panders to Berman with one of his beyond tired catch phrases. Clear victory for Obama on MNF.