Bakestar wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:

traderdave wrote:

TenuredVulture wrote:

Bakestar wrote:Howard Dean has to feel at least somewhat vindicated.

I think more than vindicated. I've been saying it for awhile--Dean is the architect of the Democratic revival.

I really thought Dean got a bad rap back in '04. I thought that whole episode was extremely overblown and I felt bad for him. I glad that he is getting to say "I told you so".

I actually think Dean deserves some blame for '04. But here's the thing--he learned from the mistakes of 04 and corrected them. The overall strategy was a good one--the right one at the right time when no one else noticed it. The 04 problem was tactical.

There was an interesting blog piece in the Nation awhile back--I think I posted it here--that argued that the left cannot ignore big chunks of the nation and the electorate. I think that's correct.

Playing to certain parts of the country at the expense of others merely plays into the "elitist" label. His "we want the guy with the Confederate flag on his truck as a voter" was rhetorically dumb, but conceptually wise.

The other thing that works is a strong ground game. The part that didn't work was having the Deaniacs knocking on doors. But knocking on doors is a good strategy.

Howard Dean did a good job, had a good idea, and the results bear that out.

It's also worth noting that Howard Dean got really, really, really lucky with a lot of things he couldn't control in the national political environment. And also to have had people like Emanuel, Van Hollen and Schumer at the House and Senate Committees to recruit awesome candidates and raise money because Dean was terrible at that so that he actually had the $$ to pick up all these seats.

Mountainphan wrote:Breaking News from the Onion...

Being an Obama supporter and a Phillies phan at the same time makes this problem even worse.

Fundraising for the 2008 Cycle:

RNC - $336,703,644
DNC - $206,087,419

NRCC - $103,858,383
DCCC - $134,416,699

NRSC - $78,247,614
DSCC - $121,862,505

Total GOP - $720,360,877
Total Dem - $748,567,867

I guess that total number includes RNC Victory and DNC Victory, which is attributable more to McCain and Obama than anything the RNC and DNC do. Basically the DNC set out at a $130 million deficit, and they more than made it up from their Congressional committees and from the Victory committee.

It will be interesting to see down the line when someone puts together a total Dem spending vs. total Republican spending with Obama, McCain and congressional candidates added in to see how horrifically we were outspent.

jerseyhoya wrote:Howard Dean did a good job, had a good idea, and the results bear that out.

It's also worth noting that Howard Dean got really, really, really lucky with a lot of things he couldn't control in the national political environment. And also to have had people like Emanuel, Van Hollen and Schumer at the House and Senate Committees to recruit awesome candidates and raise money because Dean was terrible at that so that he actually had the $$ to pick up all these seats.

Though even in the fund raising arena, it was Dean who figured out that the internet was an effective tool for raising a lot of money from small donations, often from people who had never donated to a political issue in the past.

And what is luck? Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

I will now try to stop Howard Dean hagiography. I don't really think he's as great as my last several posts might have indicated.

I raised this on my blog, which no one reads--I think the Republicans should seek to abolish the electoral college. I think going forward they're going to have a hard time winning it, especially as Texas begins is move towards swing state status.

phdave wrote:

Mountainphan wrote:Breaking News from the Onion...

Being an Obama supporter and a Phillies phan at the same time makes this problem even worse.

Indeed.

Mountainphan wrote:

phdave wrote:

Mountainphan wrote:Breaking News from the Onion...

Being an Obama supporter and a Phillies phan at the same time makes this problem even worse.

Indeed.

I've been telling people for weeks that I was looking forward to the post-Nov. 4 world, as I'd be able to start doing more work, getting closer to a regular sleep schedule, cooking actual meals, etc. Turns out there are two problems.

1) It's almost certain that in terms of Big External Things, my life will never be better than the Phillies winning the Series and my candidate winning a major election in the same week. So going forward, I'll probably have to try and sustain my sense of self-worth through actual accomplishments. The odds don't seem favorable there.

2) Of course, a big reason why I spent so much time thinking, writing and talking about baseball and politics is because I really enjoy those things more than, say, working and doing the day-to-day normal-life stuff.

Maybe I should take a nap...

dajafi wrote:

Mountainphan wrote:

phdave wrote:

Mountainphan wrote:Breaking News from the Onion...

Being an Obama supporter and a Phillies phan at the same time makes this problem even worse.

Indeed.

I've been telling people for weeks that I was looking forward to the post-Nov. 4 world, as I'd be able to start doing more work, getting closer to a regular sleep schedule, cooking actual meals, etc. Turns out there are two problems.

1) It's almost certain that in terms of Big External Things, my life will never be better than the Phillies winning the Series and my candidate winning a major election in the same week. So going forward, I'll probably have to try and sustain my sense of self-worth through actual accomplishments. The odds don't seem favorable there.

2) Of course, a big reason why I spent so much time thinking, writing and talking about baseball and politics is because I really enjoy those things more than, say, working and doing the day-to-day normal-life stuff.

Maybe I should take a nap...

Pretty much word-for-word what I've been saying for awhile now. The World Series and the election were definitely two of my personal Top Five life events thusfar; passing the bar and getting/being married being two of the others. I'm kind of sad knowing that it really can't get better. I'll be chasing it forever.

Adding, I'm also quite envious of TenuredVulture, who with the Super Bowl in February has pretty much hit the Trifecta.

I'm still riding the Phillies/election wave but I know I will crash hard soon.

Exit polls of 2004 vs. 2008, from 538:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ ... ually.html

Very interesting. Of course it's impossible to break out how much of that was having more money/organization, being a more personally appealing candidate, and actual partisan/ideological shifts. Or how much of it will sustain for future Democratic candidates, for that matter. But it's more data supporting the idea that they have a chance to build something sustainable here.

My philosophy is simply this...

No matter how good (or bad) things are, things can always get better.

(Profound, I know.)

Wow. Paul Ryan is being talked about to face Boehner for leader. I love Paul Ryan. Really love him. He should be the future of the House GOP. Not sure if the time is now to be leader, but I think it might be. I am not sure Boehner can be beaten. Hmm.

Also, Boehner has endorsed Sessions over Cole for NRCC Chair, a move I wholeheartedly support. Cole is a dope.

jerseyhoya wrote:Wow. Paul Ryan is being talked about to face Boehner for leader. I love Paul Ryan. Really love him. He should be the future of the House GOP. Not sure if the time is now to be leader, but I think it might be. I am not sure Boehner can be beaten. Hmm.

Also, Boehner has endorsed Sessions over Cole for NRCC Chair, a move I wholeheartedly support. Cole is a dope.

I saw this as well. Ryan, Cantor and Sessions - one can hope...

Fun fact: Barack Obama is only 1 year, 3 months, and 14 days older than Jamie Moyer.

There's still the Franken Coleman race to discuss

Meanwhile, the margin between Coleman and Franken has been dwindling this morning.

The latest unofficial tally by the Minnesota Secretary of State's Office of Tuesday's vote now shows Coleman with a 341-vote lead over Franken. That's down from the 477 votes at the end of the day Wednesday.

The Secretary of State's Office website has adjusted the unofficial vote totals several times since Tuesday night, most often tightening the gap. The official tally will come once the state canvassing board meets Nov. 18. Then the recount follows.

The difference will continue to change slightly over the next week or two as counties go back and double-check their figures, the office has said.

Sounds like it's going to be a good month before that race is settled.

Given that Obama won MN by something like 10 or 11 points, that would seem to indicate that a lot of Minnesotans voted for Obama and Coleman. The DFL really was pretty stupid to nominate Franken, particularly given how easily Klobuchar won two years ago...

I didn't observe too closely, but I hear Franken ran a (predictably) amateurish campaign.


Also, looks like Obama has a good shot at picking up the electoral vote from NE-02.

I kind of like the way that NE and ME allocate their electoral votes (somewhat proportional, but with a "sweetener" of two guaranteed votes to reward winning the state), but as a Democrat, I think it'd unfairly reward the Republican candidate, who would win all of the EVs in proportionally more of the 3 and 4 EV states, while eating away at the margins in the bigger Democratic states (NY, CA, PA, etc.) At least I think so.

It'd be interesting if someone ran a simulation of the 2008 election based on the assumption that every state allocated its EVs the way NE and ME do. Maybe Nate Silver would do this. Wouldn't really answer too much, though, because a change in the way the EVs are allocated would change the way candidates campaign, etc.

Bakestar wrote:I didn't observe too closely, but I hear Franken ran a (predictably) amateurish campaign.


Also, looks like Obama has a good shot at picking up the electoral vote from NE-02.

I kind of like the way that NE and ME allocate their electoral votes (somewhat proportional, but with a "sweetener" of two guaranteed votes to reward winning the state), but as a Democrat, I think it'd unfairly reward the Republican candidate, who would win all of the EVs in proportionally more of the 3 and 4 EV states, while eating away at the margins in the bigger Democratic states (NY, CA, PA, etc.) At least I think so.

It'd be interesting if someone ran a simulation of the 2008 election based on the assumption that every state allocated its EVs the way NE and ME do. Maybe Nate Silver would do this. Wouldn't really answer too much, though, because a change in the way the EVs are allocated would change the way candidates campaign, etc.

I think we're collecting all the McCain-Obama results by CD next week. I'll let you know what we come up with, if nothing else shows up first.