Election Day Thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Nov 04, 2008 18:57:41

BTW these are the exits I was talking about. Take them for what they're worth...

State obama mccain
UT 35 65
Fl 52 49
GA 47 51
LA 44 54
MI 60 39
Nh 57 43
MN 60 39
PA 57 42
VA 55 45
Wi 58 42
Oh 54 45
KY 44 55
NC 52 48
NV 55 45
NM 56 43
IA 58 42

Mn senate 49 (franken) 37

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Postby Houshphandzadeh » Tue Nov 04, 2008 18:58:04

I'm just really dreading the wave of rancor I'm expecting from whichever sides loses.

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Postby phdave » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:05:36

jeff2sf wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:And yet if the dems threatened to filibuster, it was called the nuclear option.

Good thing the liberal media is covering this.


The Republicans are doing nothing the Dems wouldn't do. The Dems filibustered more than any Congress previously when they were in the minority. It's just sort of become acceptable and we will see this from now until something fundamental changes.


In the 23 congresses represented by the chart I posted (88th - 110th), there have been 13 congresses where the amount of filibustering has increased from the previous year. 7 of these were when the Republicans were in the minority and 6 of these were when the Democrats were in the minority.

The range of increase during the Democratic minority congresses was from 6% to 28%. The range of increase in the Republican congresses was from 55% to 233%. The increase in filibustering during 110th congress (194% increase) isn't even the biggest jump from the previous congress. That came when the 92nd congress filibustered 20 times, 14 more times than the 91st congress.

The last time the Democrats went from majority to minority, filibustering went down 16%. The times before that it went up 20% and 29%. The three times Republicans went from majority to minority filibustering increased 87%, 0%, and then 194%.

The Republicans were in the minority during the 88th-96th congresses and the 100-103rd congresses (in addition to the one term 107th and 110th). During those congresses, on average, the rate of increase was 51% and 31%. The Dems were in the minority between the 97-99th, 104-106th, and 108-109th congresses. The average increase in filibustering during those congresses was 7%, 13%, and -5%.

There have been several pronounced spikes in increase in filibustering over this period of time and all of them have come during congresses when Republicans were in the minority.

Interpret it how you like but those are the facts.
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Postby phdave » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:06:57

jerseyhoya wrote:Take them for what they're worth...


Not much, I assume.
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Postby phdave » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:08:20

Houshphandzadeh wrote:I'm just really dreading the wave of rancor I'm expecting from whichever sides loses.


From what I remember from 2004, there was a wave of rancor from the winners directed at the losers.
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Postby Houshphandzadeh » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:11:03

I don't think that's how it will be as I go to and from work tomorrow.

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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:13:55

phdave wrote:
Houshphandzadeh wrote:I'm just really dreading the wave of rancor I'm expecting from whichever sides loses.


From what I remember from 2004, there was a wave of rancor from the winners directed at the losers.


Wait, really?

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Postby Camp Holdout » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:19:04

jerseyhoya wrote:
phdave wrote:
Houshphandzadeh wrote:I'm just really dreading the wave of rancor I'm expecting from whichever sides loses.


From what I remember from 2004, there was a wave of rancor from the winners directed at the losers.


Wait, really?


i remember the same kind of "in your face" kind of atmosphere. what im really afraid of is the crowd at the mccain concession later tonight.

not to pile on here, but honestly, A LOT of crazy righties came out to the rallies this year, and i dont expect them to take losing to a terrorist muslim black guy very lightly.

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Postby VoxOrion » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:20:41

jerseyhoya wrote:BTW these are the exits I was talking about. Take them for what they're worth...

State obama mccain
UT 35 65
Fl 52 49
GA 47 51
LA 44 54
MI 60 39
Nh 57 43
MN 60 39
PA 57 42
VA 55 45
Wi 58 42
Oh 54 45
KY 44 55
NC 52 48
NV 55 45
NM 56 43
IA 58 42

Mn senate 49 (franken) 37


Weren't the exits pretty inacurate in 2000 and 2004?
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Postby VoxOrion » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:21:57

Camp Holdout wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
phdave wrote:
Houshphandzadeh wrote:I'm just really dreading the wave of rancor I'm expecting from whichever sides loses.


From what I remember from 2004, there was a wave of rancor from the winners directed at the losers.


Wait, really?


i remember the same kind of "in your face" kind of atmosphere. what im really afraid of is the crowd at the mccain concession later tonight.

not to pile on here, but honestly, A LOT of crazy righties came out to the rallies this year, and i dont expect them to take losing to a terrorist muslim black guy very lightly.


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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:22:55

VoxOrion wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:BTW these are the exits I was talking about. Take them for what they're worth...

State obama mccain
UT 35 65
Fl 52 49
GA 47 51
LA 44 54
MI 60 39
Nh 57 43
MN 60 39
PA 57 42
VA 55 45
Wi 58 42
Oh 54 45
KY 44 55
NC 52 48
NV 55 45
NM 56 43
IA 58 42

Mn senate 49 (franken) 37


Weren't the exits pretty inacurate in 2000 and 2004?


Yes, and early exits are always bad for us because Republicans have jobs, but still. Pretty damn ugly.

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Postby pacino » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:23:14

I voted, #886 at my polling place, out of a possible 1300 or so I'd say. Absolutely no line, it took me 5 minutes tops.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Postby phdave » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:30:49

jerseyhoya wrote:
phdave wrote:
Houshphandzadeh wrote:I'm just really dreading the wave of rancor I'm expecting from whichever sides loses.


From what I remember from 2004, there was a wave of rancor from the winners directed at the losers.


Wait, really?


Stupid Democrats ignoring values voters will never ever win another election again, etc. That was a dominant theme on political talk shows after that election.

There was also a lot of that going on at the old Phillies board. I went back to review the comments after the 2006 election and was surprised how angry some of the attacks on the Democrats were for losing.
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Postby pacino » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:34:23

Monkeyboy wrote:Is Campbell Brown hot or is it just me?

Nice looking, but I have a crush on Amy Holmes.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:35:24

Early yet, but Obama is doing well in Indiana compared to the governor's race, and McConnell is running about 6% behind McCain, which I think would put him safe.

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Postby pacino » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:42:33

Rendell predicted Obama in the plus column in Philadelphia by 650K votes. If that happens, wow
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Postby jp_chips » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:48:09

Betus has Obama -2500 and Mccain + 900 to win the election

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Postby CFP » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:55:31

Norah O'Donnell (MSNBC) basically just gave Hagan the win over Dole. Wow.
Last edited by CFP on Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:55:48, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Wolfgang622 » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:55:32

I predict:

Obama 291 EVs, McCain 247; a moral victory for McCain.

Obama carries VA, NV, CO, PA (though not a swing state really, but in case anyone is wondering what I think), and the rest you'd expect; McCain carries MO, OH, FL, NC, and the rest you'd expect.
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Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Nov 04, 2008 19:56:27

CFP wrote:Norah O'Donnell (MSNBC) basically just gave Hagan the win over Dole. Wow.


Elizabeth Dole has been dead for a week and a half.

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