Zogby is pretty terrible. If you look at 538, basically, right now the polls are showing a total landslide. It will take a major swing in the electorate in a short period of time for Obama to lose this election unless all the pollsters are consistently totally wrong.

BuddyGroom wrote:I thought his mortgage plan sounded great, and it was heartening that he'd apparently consider Warren Buffett for Treasury Secretary. Why and if Buffett would want the job, even in an Obama administration, is another question. But I'll bet it would be a good day in the market if Buffett was nominated.

McCain's plan is pretty similar to what Obama has talked about in the last few months. He didn't voice it as publically, but he's been saying the same thing.

Also, I've heard that a lot of the right is up in arms about this idea of his because it basically creates a gigantic government bureaocracy. So basically, it's a nice idea to appeal to the centrist undecideds, but it doesn't play well with the right-wing base.

dajafi wrote:From FiveThirtyEight:

9:57 PM [Sean] By the way, a special shout out for an absolutely horrible experience on the campus of Belmont University. I'm not sure I've ever been to a less welcoming place. We hated this campus and the staff here so much that we left to watch the debate at a pizza joint. I don't like to regret things, but it would be hard to overstate how terrible a day this has been, and how crappy every interaction we had in Tennessee was. It was a terrible decision to leave Indiana and come down here. That had to be said for the record.

No significance to this, I just thought it was funny.

I found this interesting since my brother just moved to Nashville and he loves it down there. My parents visited a couple months back and come home saying they were moving down there. Anyway, FiveThirtyEight.com has it at 345 to 193 for Obama.

Further, statistical analysis from Princeton University seems to indicate that Obama can lose up to 3.0% to 4.0% in the current polls and still win the election (although it would obviously be very close). Based on status quo, the Princeton research has it at approximately 350 to 188.

I also found this tidbit from CBS News interesting:

"Republican aides are calling the “that one” comment a memorable line and expect to start using it more in the coming days."

VoxOrion wrote:

BuddyGroom wrote:

VoxOrion wrote:Yeah - you know in the rehersal he was supposed to say "Many Americans never heard of..." and flubbed it. I winced.

I wasn't aware there had been a rehearsal. Obama and McCain knew what the questions would be?

Don't be that guy. Do you think McCain didn't have a memorized chunk of talking points to discuss that issue in case it came up?

It doesn't have to be memorized. They've been talking about the same issues (social security, energy policy, foreign policy) for the last 20 years, and the new issues are probably talked about ad nauseum among the team of advisors. Hell, I can respond reasonably well to most of those questions, and I don't spend my entire day campaigning and creating law.

Guy on NPR is saying that flyers are going up around Philly saying that voting is a trick to arrest people with outstanding warrants.

http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_up ... hoods.html

Houshphandzadeh wrote:Guy on NPR is saying that flyers are going up around Philly saying that voting is a trick to arrest people with outstanding warrants.

http://www.philly.com/philly/hp/news_up ... hoods.html

Why would the Flyers do that?

My fellow prisoners?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYFm5kK4f1k&eurl=http://www.jedreport.com/2008/10/mccain-loses-it-calls-american.html[/youtube]

Honestly, I don't know how they're both not completely insane by this poitn

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/politics/Palin_to_throw_out_puck_Saturday_night_.html

OMFG

i hope she gets booed.

that would be glorious.

I don't know, there will probably be lots of mullets in attendance

phdave wrote:My fellow prisoners?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYFm5kK4f1k&eurl=http://www.jedreport.com/2008/10/mccain-loses-it-calls-american.html[/youtube]

Who's that in the gray?

His daughter, I think. Megan?

That's an unfortunate stunt. I don't hope she gets booed; I wish they hadn't chosen to inject politics--particularly a figure as divisive as Palin, whose recent speeches really do "sound better in the original German"--into sports.

jerseyhoya wrote:His daughter, I think. Megan?

Not bad

Why would the Flyers do that? Is the hockey fan base such that a significant portion of it isn't likely to be pissed off by Palin showing up?

Fascinating opinion on what happens in case of a tie.

In her 2004 campaign, Herseth Sandlin indicated that she would be open to voting for the Republican nominee -- President Bush in that case -- in the event of a tie in the Electoral College.

In the event of a tie Herseth Sandlin could vote McCain and piss off her party or vote Obama and piss off her electorate. Either way she could be ending her political future.

VoxOrion wrote:

BuddyGroom wrote:

VoxOrion wrote:Yeah - you know in the rehersal he was supposed to say "Many Americans never heard of..." and flubbed it. I winced.

I wasn't aware there had been a rehearsal. Obama and McCain knew what the questions would be?

Don't be that guy. Do you think McCain didn't have a memorized chunk of talking points to discuss that issue in case it came up?

Oh, all candidates prepare and have pre-memorized verbiage. Obama did too, I'm certain. I was asking if there was a formal dress rehearsal in which McCain and Obama heard the questions ahead of time?

To highlight Buddy's earlier post:

RCP Average Obama +5.1
Gallup Tracking Obama +11
Rasmussen Tracking Obama +6
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking Obama +2
Hotline/FD Tracking Obama +1
GW/Battleground Tracking Obama +4
Ipsos/McClatchy Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama +6
CBS News Obama +3
CNN Obama +8
Democracy Corps (D) Obama +3

That's a wide range. RCP's average has gone from Obama's high of +6.2 on 10/6 to +5.1. Yet the state polls have yet to show any movement. They supposedly lag behind the national polls, but most of the above pollsters don't do state polls. CNN and Rasmussen are at the high end of Obama and they do the most. It's impossible to know where Survey USA or other state pollsters would fit in.

State polls have been varying widely. The last seven Virginia polls range from McCain +3 to Obama +12.