I turn my head and then Eickhoff? Phillies random thoughts

by **stevemc** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:11:29

I don't get the rationale of not moving Odubel bc Kingery should be the future. He hit .250, OPS'd .652 and will be 22 at CLW next season. I'm not hanging my hat on that. PLUS we have some potential elite defensive CF either on the team (Altherr) or soon to be up (Quinn). Odubel's bat at 2B becomes even more valuable.

by **phorever** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:15:43

Monkeyboy wrote:You just got to hope that half of them turn out to be league average or better with one or two stars. That may not be realistic, but it's what I'm hoping for (well, I'm hoping for all stars, but that's definitely not realistic).

if all our younger guys from the 2015 mlb phils plus blanco and hellickson put up a full year of performance at the same level as last year and the rest of the team was replacement level that would be good for 81 wins. that's how good altherr, eickhoff, herrera, nola, franco and giles were (they would be worth 22 of the 33 total team war in this scenario). it got lost in the "year of the prospect" hoopla, but the phils had maybe their best single season rookie crop ever.

together the good players on the 2015 phils put up enough innings of above average mlb numbers that regressing the collective to the mean (the core of tango's marcel method) would only reduce the 2016 projected output by at most a third, still good for 22 wins and 70 total, and that would be pessimistic since a majority of the wins would be coming from guys still on the upside of the aging curve. add in just a win each from the crawford, thompson, williams, and maybe knapp/cozens/alfaro callups and you're back to 75ish wins, with an upside of about 86 wins.
thus, IF the 2015 phils rookies true talent for regression is that indicated by 2015 rather than their prior careers,
and IF the next generation is as good as they looked in reading
and IF the phils stop subtracting wins by playing howard and ruiz and frenchy, and stop playing guys like ruf and asche and maybe obubel out of position in favor of guys who can't play those positions...
and IF they use their expected future budget surplus add heyward and the japanese version of nola this offseason,
THEN they suddenly have a realistic (though still small) chance at the playoffs in 2016 and a great chance in each of the 3 or 4 years after that...
barring injury
and all of the other reality checks i'm sure are coming my way once the season starts.

by **Phred** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:25:28

They aren't signing Heyward.

by **joe table** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:33:27

Has Jabari Blash been discussed as a rule V option? Intersting writeup on him over at mlbtr, but i also wonder why he hasn't gotten a shot at 26 given his stats and positive scouting reports

Need batts

by **phorever** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:35:08

Phred wrote:They aren't signing Heyward.

how many times do i have to state that i know i'm fantasizing about only-in-my-dreams scenarios in order to keep people from feeling obliged to explain to me that i'm fantasizing about only-in-my-dreams scenarios? sigh....

by **ReadingPhilly** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:46:11

phorever wrote:
Phred wrote:They aren't signing Heyward.

how many times do i have to state that i know i'm fantasizing about only-in-my-dreams scenarios in order to keep people from feeling obliged to explain to me that i'm fantasizing about only-in-my-dreams scenarios? sigh....

i'm with ya on heyward but if you don't want people to respond you probably shouldn't post it. i had to restrain myself on the williams playing 1b thing.

by **Bucky** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:53:11

NO WAY IS WILLIAMS PLAYING FIRST BASE THEY'S NEVER DO THAT

by **WilliamC** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:55:50

Bucky wrote:NO WAY IS WILLIAMS PLAYING FIRST BASE THEY'S NEVER DO THAT

On top of that there is NO WAY we sign Heyward.

by **ReadingPhilly** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:59:42

joe table wrote:Has Jabari Blash been discussed as a rule V option? Intersting writeup on him over at mlbtr, but i also wonder why he hasn't gotten a shot at 26 given his stats and positive scouting reports

Need batts

he's been discussed. with all the relievers claimed on waivers i would guess either he or goeddel is their pick unless they are enamored with a guy like teoscar hernandez.

by **Doll Is Mine** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 13:35:13

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick
#Astros and #Phillies recently discussed Ken Giles. #Phillies brought up Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez, sources say. Phillies are getting a lot of hits on Giles and trade talks are likely to intensify in Nashville.

by **76erfan** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 13:37:06

doubt they move McCullers and don't think velasquez is all that

id be asking about Preston Tucker and AJ Reed personally

by **Shore** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 13:48:40

Doll Is Mine wrote:
Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick
#Astros and #Phillies recently discussed Ken Giles. #Phillies brought up Lance McCullers and Vincent Velasquez, sources say. Phillies are getting a lot of hits on Giles and trade talks are likely to intensify in Nashville.

I love Giles, but I'd take McCullers in a heartbeat.

by **JFLNYC** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 13:50:29

76erfan wrote:doubt they move McCullers and don't think velasquez is all that

id be asking about Preston Tucker and AJ Reed personally

+1

by **Eem** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 15:33:30

The Phils have apparently claimed Peter Bourjos off waivers, which is a solid cheap move

by **Squire** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 15:35:03

Eem wrote:The Phils have apparently claimed Peter Bourjos off waivers, which is a solid cheap move

Bingo!

by **Squire** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 15:36:23

Eem wrote:The Phils have apparently claimed Peter Bourjos off waivers, which is a solid cheap move

At this point we can only make one Rule 5 pick since the 40 is at 39. Hopefully we release someone by the C.O.B. tomorrow.

by **Bucky** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 15:36:53

i guess they really wanted to maintain a Frenchy

by **Grotewold** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 15:37:09

Squire wrote:
Eem wrote:The Phils have apparently claimed Peter Bourjos off waivers, which is a solid cheap move

Bingo!

Yeah they really do seem to fixate on certain guys. But at least in case case Klentak knows him

by **WilliamC** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 15:37:39

Bucky wrote:i guess they really wanted to maintain a Frenchy

Why didn't we just keep our true Frenchy?

by **Doll Is Mine** » Wed Dec 02, 2015 15:40:50

Bourjos is a good pick-up, still only 28.

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