Eem wrote:All of a sudden, dominos start to fall and we start hearing whispers on Byrd, Rollins, and Hamels

I'm just utterly stunned there's been NOTHING on Papelbon, considering he looks practically like a bargain in this market. Fair value, at least.

He is also an asshole and could be viewed as a cancer to some teams.

heyeaglefn wrote:

Eem wrote:All of a sudden, dominos start to fall and we start hearing whispers on Byrd, Rollins, and Hamels

I'm just utterly stunned there's been NOTHING on Papelbon, considering he looks practically like a bargain in this market. Fair value, at least.

He is also an asshole and could be viewed as a cancer to some teams.

Which the mother's basement dwellers would laugh at if they weren't so busy predicting his freefall for the third year in a row smh

I think it's mostly that people think he's a diminishing asset who is unlikely to repeat his luck factors from last year who had a 3.50 and 3.51 xFIP in 2013 and 2014, which puts him 20th out of 30 pitchers with 25+ saves during that timeframe, not to mention the oodles of non-closers who had better numbers.

That's not to suggest that he wouldn't make sense for a team like Detroit or some others, but it's not a huge market

BAL Zach Britton
BOS Koji Uehara
NYY Dellin Betances Andrew Miller*
TB Jake McGee* Brad Boxberger
TOR Brett Cecil* Aaron Sanchez

CWS David Robertson
CLE Cody Allen
DET Joe Nathan Joakim Soria
KC Greg Holland Wade Davis
MIN Glen Perkins*

HOU Chad Qualls Luke Gregerson
LAA Huston Street
OAK Sean Doolittle*
SEA Fernando Rodney Yoervis Medina
TEX Neftali Feliz

ATL Craig Kimbrel
MIA Steve Cishek A.J. Ramos
NYM Jenrry Mejia Jeurys Familia
PHI Jonathan Papelbon Ken Giles
WSH Drew Storen Tyler Clippard

CHC Hector Rondon
CIN Aroldis Chapman*
MIL Jonathan Broxton Jim Henderson
PIT Mark Melancon Tony Watson*
STL Trevor Rosenthal

ARZ Addison Reed Brad Ziegler
COL LaTroy Hawkins Adam Ottavino
LAD Kenley Jansen Joel Peralta
SD Joaquin Benoit Kevin Quackenbush
SF Santiago Casillia

Taking into account aspirations of contention, existing options, and ability to pay for a closer....your potential targets are....

Toronto
Detroit
Seattle (maybe)
Cubs
Brewers

That's it.

I'm ready, would be so much more interested in watching a young team take its lumps

Steaks says Bastardo market heating up. Pirates interested.

Trent Steele wrote:BAL Zach Britton
BOS Koji Uehara
NYY Dellin Betances Andrew Miller*
TB Jake McGee* Brad Boxberger
TOR Brett Cecil* Aaron Sanchez

CWS David Robertson
CLE Cody Allen
DET Joe Nathan Joakim Soria
KC Greg Holland Wade Davis
MIN Glen Perkins*

HOU Chad Qualls Luke Gregerson
LAA Huston Street
OAK Sean Doolittle*
SEA Fernando Rodney Yoervis Medina
TEX Neftali Feliz

ATL Craig Kimbrel
MIA Steve Cishek A.J. Ramos
NYM Jenrry Mejia Jeurys Familia
PHI Jonathan Papelbon Ken Giles
WSH Drew Storen Tyler Clippard

CHC Hector Rondon
CIN Aroldis Chapman*
MIL Jonathan Broxton Jim Henderson
PIT Mark Melancon Tony Watson*
STL Trevor Rosenthal

ARZ Addison Reed Brad Ziegler
COL LaTroy Hawkins Adam Ottavino
LAD Kenley Jansen Joel Peralta
SD Joaquin Benoit Kevin Quackenbush
SF Santiago Casillia

Taking into account aspirations of contention, existing options, and ability to pay for a closer....your potential targets are....

Toronto
Detroit
Seattle (maybe)
Cubs
Brewers

That's it.

Also worth remembering that the following FA are still out there:

Sergio Romo
Casey Jansen
Rafael Soriano
KRod
Jason Grilli
Jason Motte


It's not hard to see why there isn't a market for Papelbon

Trent Steele wrote:I think it's mostly that people think he's a diminishing asset who is unlikely to repeat his luck factors from last year who had a 3.50 and 3.51 xFIP in 2013 and 2014, which puts him 20th out of 30 pitchers with 25+ saves during that timeframe, not to mention the oodles of non-closers who had better numbers.

But did all those guys post a 3.50 xFIP both of those years, in connection to a historically great career, and are better bets to do so again this year?

I get that teams are wary of him and/or comprise a small market. I just think the criticism gets way overblown

ek wrote:Ruben [via mobile]

Dave, What can I reasonably expect for King Cole Hamels? How about Byrd?
David Schoenfield (1:00 PM)

I think a package of prospects from the Red Sox that won't include Mookie Betts. Maybe you get Henry Owens as the centerpiece, but it could be 3-4 lesser prospects.
David Schoenfield (1:01 PM)

For Marlon Byrd ... look at what the A's just got for Brandon Moss, a second-tier second-base prospect. Granted, Moss had hip surgery so that maybe hurt his value, but Byrd would be similar. You're not getting anybody's top-five prospect for him.

If they trade Hamels for Owens about rigoddamn furious

Nobody wants Papelbon. Accept it.

i'm sure the tigers regret not trading for papelbon at the deadline.

If the Phillies don't get a great offer, Hamels ain't getting traded. There is literally no reason to do it.

Grotewold wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:I think it's mostly that people think he's a diminishing asset who is unlikely to repeat his luck factors from last year who had a 3.50 and 3.51 xFIP in 2013 and 2014, which puts him 20th out of 30 pitchers with 25+ saves during that timeframe, not to mention the oodles of non-closers who had better numbers.

But did all those guys post a 3.50 xFIP both of those years, in connection to a historically great career, and are better bets to do so again this year?

I get that teams are wary of him and/or comprise a small market. I just think the criticism gets way overblown

I don't think Papelbon's career is the slightest bit relevant. He's lost 4 MPH and 35% of his strikeouts since 2011. He's not that guy and he's trending the wrong way. He's "safe" in the way that Joe Nathan was safe going to last year.

ReadingPhilly wrote:i'm sure the tigers regret not trading for papelbon at the deadline.

This is true. Tigers and Blue Jays seem like likely destinations.

Trent Steele wrote:I don't think Papelbon's career is the slightest bit relevant. He's lost 4 MPH and 35% of his strikeouts since 2011. He's not that guy and he's trending the wrong way. He's "safe" in the way that Joe Nathan was safe going to last year.

I just meant he's been very good to great his whole career, and never seriously injured like Nathan. You can say he's been lucky the last couple years because of the velocity, it's also possible he's pitching differently.

Rube has yet to convert smoke to fire.

Eem wrote:If the Phillies don't get a great offer, Hamels ain't getting traded. There is literally no reason to do it.

eat shit sons of sam horn

Eem wrote:I'm ready, would be so much more interested in watching a young team take its lumps

yes, and I felt this way two years ago, too. It's time.

There are two types of teams: On one side, those who believe you shouldn't pay a lot for a closer and, on the other side, the CWS and Phils.