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Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby JFLNYC » Tue Nov 18, 2014 12:59:37

RealKen:

The Red Sox seem disinclined to move Christian Vazquez or Blake Swihart, but teams routinely ask about both catching prospects.
*Speaking of Vazquez, the Phillies are doing background work on his makeup, as well as on the makeups of right-hander Matt Barnes and outfielder Mookie Betts.
Those are the kinds of prospects that the Phillies likely would request for Cole Hamels. Doesn't mean they would get them --€“ Betts, in particular, seems untouchable --€“ but the Phillies have scouted the Red Sox extensively, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe.

Hamels included the Red Sox on his latest no-trade list, and likely would grant his approval for a deal only if they exercised his $20 million option for 2019. At that point, his contract would become less attractive - $110 million over five years.

Would the Sox part with major prospects and take all of that money? Sounds like the Phillies might need to include cash if they want a strong return.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby CFP » Tue Nov 18, 2014 13:12:16

If we include any sort of cash on an already friendly contract, Rube should be maimed.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Woody » Tue Nov 18, 2014 13:14:38

why is that every other team can effectively use the media to leverage except us
you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby CFP » Tue Nov 18, 2014 13:17:56

Woody wrote:why is that every other team can effectively use the media to leverage except us


Yeah really

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby JFLNYC » Tue Nov 18, 2014 13:20:41

CFP wrote:If we include any sort of cash on an already friendly contract, Rube should be maimed.


Wouldn't it depend on how much and who the prospects are, though? If it's not a prohibitive amount and it gets you one or more guys like Betts, it might be worth it.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Squire » Tue Nov 18, 2014 13:34:24

Woody wrote:why is that every other team can effectively use the media to leverage except us


On a planet of 6 billiion people, Smug has exactly one friend and its Dave Montgomery.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby CFP » Tue Nov 18, 2014 13:57:26

JFLNYC wrote:
CFP wrote:If we include any sort of cash on an already friendly contract, Rube should be maimed.


Wouldn't it depend on how much and who the prospects are, though? If it's not a prohibitive amount and it gets you one or more guys like Betts, it might be worth it.


Hamels has a friendly contract. For what Kershaw got, for what Shields/Scherzer are about to get, for what Verlander got, it's absurd to pay another team to take Hamels off our hands. This isn't a Ryan Howard or Josh Hamilton salary dump. Giving some cash to get an extra prospect? Not a huge fan, in this situation. I understand it in a potential Howard situation, but Hamels? No way.

I don't trust this organization to find out what a "better prospect" looks like anyway.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Tue Nov 18, 2014 14:14:42

Here's anther way of thinking about it: Would you give $5-10M to get Betts outright? I get the skepticism of the Phils' talent evaluation at this point, but they're not gonna just fold up shop.

I don't think this Sox thing is gonna happen, though, and not because of Rube not outfoxing Nick Cafardo or whatever. The Sox know better than we do about about the greater prospect haul being worth more than the money we would kick in, and anecdotally it seems the league is moving away from trading elite prospects. We might do better just to hang on to him and hope for a desperate team at the trade deadline

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Woody » Tue Nov 18, 2014 14:14:59

On the talent eval side of things, I agree.

However we have very few prospects and LOTS of money
you sure do seem to have a lot of time on your hands to be on this forum? Do you have a job? Are you a shut-in?

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby momadance » Tue Nov 18, 2014 14:21:14

Cole Hamels will start the season a Phillies.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby bleh » Tue Nov 18, 2014 14:43:02

Montgomery will come back and the whole charade about rebuilding will be over. Ruben will just release Howard and say "It's a new era of Phillies baseball" then sign Nick Punto to a 2 year deal.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Tue Nov 18, 2014 14:56:29

bleh wrote:Nick Punto to a 2 year deal.


Billy Beane outsmarts us once again

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Stripes » Tue Nov 18, 2014 18:31:33

RAJ working on a stud-for-prospects deal with Red Sox, or Theo Epstein and the Cubs? What could POSSIBLY go wrong?
(Brandy) only hinted at Halladay's personal issues during her Hall of Fame speech last July, when she said, "Roy would want everyone to know that people are not perfect. We're all imperfect and flawed in one way or another. We all struggle."
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Bill McNeal » Tue Nov 18, 2014 18:55:01

Gonna be a three team deal Hamels to Boston, Betts and bogaerts to the Cubs.
man I drew all these penises for nothing - housh

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby heyeaglefn » Tue Nov 18, 2014 18:56:19

Bill McNeal wrote:Gonna be a three team deal Hamels to Boston, Betts and bogaerts to the Cubs.

Amaro gets his pants pulled down?

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby my cousin mose » Tue Nov 18, 2014 20:16:50

"We had TALKS. Very productive TALKS. You can't quantify those, nerds"
You merely adopted your mothers basement, I was born there - MoBettle

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Shore » Tue Nov 18, 2014 22:54:03

These other teams keep offering us MINOR LEAGUE players for Hamels. It's ridiculous.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby phorever » Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:24:47

Shore wrote:These other teams keep offering us MINOR LEAGUE players for Hamels. It's ridiculous.


pretty much the entire history of hamels trade rumors has been ridiculous. amaro/monty being fools seems to have resulted in the whole world concluding that it is the karmic or moral obligation of the phillies to trade hamels for a pile of beans that even that boy named jack would know aren't magic.
BRING HOME THE GOAT!
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Trent Steele » Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:34:46

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-des ... els-trade/

read in case you want to shoot yourself in the face today
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Wed Nov 19, 2014 11:45:56

I reject his methodology but support his conclusion. Hamels isn't that much better than the alternatives that you would give up elite prospects in this marketplace. And eating salary probably won't sway high-revenue teams eg Boston

I hate to run the risk of him getting hurt or regressing, but the highest upside play is to hang on to him for now I think

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