Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby bleh » Tue Nov 11, 2014 19:11:58

nycphils wrote:Whether you agree or disagree, this is actually one of the more coherent arguments that Amaro has made in a while:

The general manager later talked extensively about how Domonic Brown, the man who started 117 games in left field for the Phillies last season, needs a longer look.

"We know he has the ability to do it," Amaro said. "It's just a matter of him being able to make the adjustments. Sometimes you have to be patient with guys. Some guys don't get there all the time, but he has a chance to be very good. He has proven it. He has done it at the major-league level. Has he done it for a sustained period of time? No. And is it a slam dunk that he will? Absolutely not. But I think when you have a guy with that kind of talent you have to be somewhat patient with him."

Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phi ... DIXMoiR.99

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby nycphils » Tue Nov 11, 2014 19:23:18

At least his answers make sense this time.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby smitty » Tue Nov 11, 2014 21:53:10

JFLNYC wrote:
smitty wrote:
Grotewold wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:If you, Grote or anyone else wants to hope or believe Asche will be better than league average and is a better alternative than Ruf over the next 3 seasons, you're entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. "Hope" and "belief" aren't facts.


That's a silly reduction of my point


Man. Your not kidding. If someone has all the "facts" regarding how all big leaguers will perform over the next three years, please let me know. We could make some serious dough.


Stop responding to an argument I didn't make, please. The only projection I made is that Ruf's next 3 seasons will start at ages 27, 28 and 29 and I'm pretty sure that projection is going to turn out to be correct. There are no "facts" in projections. The facts I referred to are their respective career numbers, every one of which favors Ruf as a hitter (and defensively for Ruf as a 1B only).

The "the majority of statistical evidence" does not suppurt Ruf over Asche. ALL of it does when you compare their respective complete bodies of work. Ruf has 447 career plate appearances, Asche 613. Ruf leads in BB%, ISO, AVG, OBP, SLG wOBA, wRC+ and oWAR -- even though Ruf has 27% fewer career PA than Asche (as I'm sure everyone knows, WAR is a counting stat). Even Ruf's minor league stats were better than Asche's.

phorever, I'll give you credit when it's due. But parsing the stats to include only 2014 when Asche had 434 PA and Ruf only 117 injury-filled PA is, once again, creating your own facts and not worthy of respect.

For all I know Asche will end up having a better career than Ruf. But, I will say again that, based on their career numbers (and not some artificially smaller sample size) there is no fact-based argument that supports Asche's career performance thus far over Ruf's. Any attempt to argue otherwise is disingenuous.


Neither one of these guys has played a full season. Asche is 24. Ruf's 293 PAs two years ago is his career high. Their career performances don't mean much at all. And that's a fact.

Don't know what the roster will look like in April. But if Asche plays 3B and Ruf first from the get go it would be interesting to see how they do.
Teams lie, sometimes for good reasons, sometimes for bad. They do it to get an advantage while they look at the trade market or just because they can

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Philly the Kid » Tue Nov 11, 2014 22:34:35

JFLNYC wrote:If Franco looks ready in ST, I give him the job, even expecting that he'll likely struggle for awhile. At the very least, by all accounts he's better defensively than Asche. If Franco's not ready and someone like Asche has to fill in for a couple of months, so be it. I'm looking to the future and, if I'm the Phillies, the future has Franco at the 3B and does not include Asche at 1B.

I've said before and will say it again: I haven't "given up" on Asche. He has a role, but it's not as a regular 3B or 1B. It's as a supersub.


I agree with this.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Trent Steele » Tue Nov 11, 2014 22:36:18

Cubs in talks for Jordan Zimmerman. They should be in talks for Cole Hamels.

Get your shit together, dickstick.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby JFLNYC » Tue Nov 11, 2014 23:41:33

Cubs playing Rube like a fiddle.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Doll Is Mine » Tue Nov 11, 2014 23:49:42

I can't remember where I read it (probably here) but it was stated that everyone on the Phillies is available to be traded including Ken Giles.

Umm, why?

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby ReadingPhilly » Wed Nov 12, 2014 00:01:04

Why not? Unlikely some team bowls them over with an offer but at least let it be a possibility.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Trent Steele » Wed Nov 12, 2014 00:04:12

If Giles somehow got you an elite position prospect... bye bye.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Shore » Wed Nov 12, 2014 00:59:50

Can't wait until we're left holding Hamels, Lee, Papelbon, and Byrd, because people only want to give us "minor league players".

Even with Howard gone, we're looking at 4 of our 8 everyday players being 36 or older. We've got to fix that.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby ReadingPhilly » Wed Nov 12, 2014 01:17:34

Seems like they've completely changed their stance on that. We'll see.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Eem » Wed Nov 12, 2014 01:24:54

Doll Is Mine wrote:I can't remember where I read it (probably here) but it was stated that everyone on the Phillies is available to be traded including Ken Giles.

Umm, why?

I doubt Giles goes, but there's a chance a contender or fringe contender looking for pen help is more willing to part with a great prospect for a cheap, controllable reliever like Giles before he hits his prime
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Wed Nov 12, 2014 09:50:40

JFLNYC wrote:Cubs playing Rube like a fiddle.


Hesitant as I am to question your mind-reading skill, RealKen doesn't seem to think so. In my mind, Hamels and Zim are completely different situations anyway

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby JFLNYC » Wed Nov 12, 2014 11:28:28

Thanks. That article supports my theory.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Bucky » Wed Nov 12, 2014 11:37:46

the part where the Cubs deny any interest in Zimmerman?

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby rolex » Wed Nov 12, 2014 11:51:57

Grotewold wrote:In my mind, Hamels and Zim are completely different situations anyway

They are since Zimmerman is a FA after '15 and has hinted that he wants to go back to the WI area where he is from (Auburndale) and the Brewers have let it be known that they'd like to have him. So more or less he's leaving the Nats.

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby JFLNYC » Wed Nov 12, 2014 11:56:22

See Corey Seidman's article today here: Nats-Cubs trade rumor could reshape market for Hamels

Simple market dynamics. Anything which suggests SP alternatives for the Cubs other than Hamels reduces the Phils' (and other sellers' ) leverage by increasing supply. When that alternative is a trade possibility which would ostensibly cost the Cubs less in prospects than Hamels, it reduces the leverage further.

Perception of leverage is everything in negotiation. Whether the original rumor or the denial were true, the perception that the Cubs have more SP alternatives reduces the Phils' leverage.

By the way, what was the most likely source for the Zimmermann rumor anyway? It's been rumored for weeks, if not months, that the Cubs will actively pursue a top SP in the off-season. Who has more incentive to let a rumor slip (true or not) that there's another top SP available? The denial is not only meaningless, it may actually stoke the flames.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:00:59

JFLNYC wrote:Anything which suggests SP alternatives for the Cubs other than Hamels reduces the Phils' (and other sellers' ) leverage by increasing supply.


Alright. But what is Ruben supposed to do about that? Take whatever the Cubs will offer by noon today? Disable Twitter?

Renting Zimmermann for a year and having Cole as your ace for five are completely different things, which even our mouth breathing GM understands

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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:03:09

Yeh, both the Nats and the Cubs would benefit from that rumor.

Rube is out of his league when he doesn't have prospects and piles of cash to burn.
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Re: Phillies Thoughts: Randomness is Our Best Hope

Postby Grotewold » Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:05:48

Monkeyboy wrote:Yeh, both the Nats and the Cubs would benefit from that rumor.

Rube is out of his league when he doesn't have prospects and piles of cash to burn.


Again, what would you have done to prevent other teams from talking to one another? (Which would have been negligent on their part.)

We firesaling Cole now?
Last edited by Grotewold on Wed Nov 12, 2014 12:06:04, edited 1 time in total.

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