dajafi wrote:

Shore wrote:

dajafi wrote:Grote, ymmv but Hamilton just isn't that interesting to me. Another aging lefty bat with injury concerns? Pass.

(Plus I mostly meant "interesting" in the sense of "hope-giving," though admittedly that wasn't clear...)

Ubaldo, though, is somewhat intriguing. I'd want to know if anyone has a good explanation for why he sucked so badly last year. He's exactly the sort of player they could flip after a good two or three months. If the money more or less netted out, I'd happily swap Howard for him.

Or in 2012 (9-17, 5.40 ERA)
Or in 2011 (10-13, 4.68 ERA)

Since his great 2010 season, he's 38-48 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.459 WHIP. Not good. 2013 starts to look like the aberration, not 2014.

Fair enough. But if the money is equal, wouldn't you rather have Jimenez? Some chance at upside, and at worst he eats innings like Burnett did last season.

I can only hear "space cadet" so many times in this life, so I'll pass on Ubaldo. But I'd pass on Hamilton, too.

If we're going to trade for him for a bad contract, I nominate Alex Rodriguez, who could play 1B for me, if they hate Ruf as much as they seem to. We'd never do that, of course, but *I* would do it.

Wow, there are 15 non-stickied threads before you get to the first Phillies topic on the board. Thanks, Rube.

Yeah, well, you certainly screwed THAT up!

nycphils wrote:

lethal wrote:

Grotewold wrote:

dajafi wrote:Seriously, they've become really #$!&@ boring. I think a lot of us are probably hoping they sign Tomas just to give some reason to be interested.

That's part of why I pushed the Hamilton thing

Is there anyone owed less money that scenario could work out for? An extra $29M is a ton of money.

Not trying to be obnoxious, but why is $29 million so much under the circumstances. The first $60m is a sunk cost with Howard or Hamilton, so the marginal dollars are over about 5 or 6 years - $5-6m for Hamilton for each of the next 5 or 6 years isn't that much.

The mistake was Howard - that money's gone so don't think of exchanging it for Hamilton's equivalent money as in addition to the $29m.

Hamilton is scheduled to make 25/32/32. Howard will make 25/25/10 (buyout). So it is almost 10 million dollars more per year for 3 years. If you assume Howard is a 0 (since if we released him, he would have 0 production), would you give a FA Hamilton a 3 year 29 million dollar contract for his age 34-36 seasons coming off 2 sub 750 OPS seasons and missing half of 2014?

Steaks says to keep an eye on the Tigers and Reds as potential landing spots for Byrd

Per request, moving this discussion here.

phorever wrote:wow, shore, you broke your own record for the most analytical errors in one post!

I'm not sure why you consider yourself my foil. You're not. I sort of admire your optimism, but your constant insistence that your wishcasting is actually forecasting is incredibly annoying. And, despite my constant "analytical errors", I'm always closer to right about our fotunes than you are. Always.

(a) you used the 3b tab instead of the "as 3b" split. if you look at the table you used, you'll note vastly different plate appearance totals because that table combines stats of all players listed on rosters as 3b, whether or not they played there. if you had used the right table you would have been pleased to see the phillies all the way at the bottom.

I didn't mention what table I used. I'm not sure what conclusion you leaped to, but I was using the "2014 NL Wins Above Avg By Position" which follow the batting and pitching stats on this page: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2014.shtml.

(b) you are using war stats in an argument, which is inconsistent with your avowed disbelief in them.

That's an analytical error? Either way, the majority of the discussions in these threads evaluate players using WAR, and forecast potential WAR. While I dislike WAR, still, particularly defensively, and I still think that 90% of WAR users don't get replacement level concepts, or the impact playing time has, when in Rome....

(c) you are using fangraphs war, which i have demonstrated to be considerably less reliable than bwar.

No, I'm not. And, If I were, your "demonstrated" refutation of them wouldn't impact my decision. At all.

(d) you make the amazingly ridiculous logical leap combining the fact that the phils team 3b production was terrible with the fact that asche got about 2/3 of the 3b plate appearances to infer that asche was responsible for most of the awfulness. sums and averages don't work that way. that's 6th grade math. 1/3 absolutely horrible plus 2/3 below average really can average to terrible. ((1*-2)+(2*2))/3 = .67 doesn't make the 2 win per season guy a 2/3 win per season guy. geez-looo-weez.

Asche's career to date is replacement level. He's not a 2 win per season guy. He was a .6 WAR guy last year, per BBREF. The Phillies, overall, were 2.3 wins below AVERAGE at the position, which is more important than wins above replacement, since replacement level is a mostly-arbitrary number.

(e) and, of course, you conveniently ignored the value actual numbers, which i'm pretty sure are on the same table that listed the phillies individual 3b pa's: asche 0.4 war, the rest -1.6 war. on the more appropriate "as 3b" split table, it's asche +1.1, the rest -1.2. (asche was 1/11 with a wrc+ of 7 as a ph).
as a team "as 3b" war that would have ranked 13th in the nl, ahead of the braves and pads.

Asche had 434 PA last year. You can convince yourself, if you wish, that his 1/11 as a PH robbed him of 50% of his value per WAR, or you can question the values... he was 1.1 as a 3B, but 0.6 overall, because of 11 AB where he had 2 fewer hits than expected?

what's your next trick? supporting a phils didn't improve in 2014 argument using the fact that they had the same win total as in 2013? please don't, given that you repeated made the point last year that the 2013 win total was out of line with the runs scored and allowed.... both of which improved in 2014.

b-r, alas, does not have the option of either a 3b or an "as 3b" split for most of their advanced stats, so it's hard to get asche's ranking among those player subgroups. however, since most regulars have to ph now and then, his 0.6 overall bwar is a reasonable measure of his overall worth in 2014. remember that he only got 2/3 of a season worth of pa's thanks to injury and to howard getting to play in september when they wanted to try out franco. prorated for a full season, that's 0.9 wins. normal half-win improvement moving into his prime gives 1.4 wins. league average win production from full-time regulars is two wins.

So he's around 50% likely to be 70% as good as average? That's awful.

and i'm not saying asche is utley. i'm saying that he is a young player praised for his work effort, and thus a pretty safe bet to improve next year if given the chance.

And my point is that, EVEN if he improves, he's not likely to even be average.

But, hey, what do I know? I thought Tony Gwynn Jr. sucked.

i apologize, shore, for my badly erroneous assumption about your data source, and for not asking you before jumping to conclusions. i agree that i have become all to eager to seek out and object to statistical and analytical errors (I consider logical construction of arguments part of analysis) in your posts. as mentioned before, irresponsible use of stats by those who should know better is a pet peeve, and i've allowed myself to turn you into the focus of that obsession. when i start making mistakes like this one, it's a sign that i've lost perspective. i'll do my best to treat you like any other poster here and with respect from now on.

still think asche has too much demonstrated and potential value to put in the "werthless" just yet. yes, most of his age 24 comps (including mr schu) weren't very good thereafter... but pedro alvarez and aubrey huff are there too. in pure offense per pa (the batting/db/baserunning columns in the b-r value tables turned into rate stats), asche was 239th of 443 mlb players with 100 or more pa's (or did I make it 97 to include 2 or three players of interest just below the cutoff? can't remember, and it's on my other computer), ahead of jon singleton and darin ruf.

his bat was closer to league average than his overall rating, and thus about 50% likely to be league average or better. "or better" is not to be forgotten. that includes the 10-15% chance of having an alvarez/huff breakout that would be flushed away if he is buried on the bench or traded for nothing. the similar chance of a terrible season doesn't present the same risk, since a team that won't compete till 2017 doesn't lose anything if a young player turns out to be bust, as long as he's not blocking someone with a better chance to help in 2017. 1b/lf options howard/ruf/brown/sizemore don't qualify, and franco wasn't killing it in aaa enough to guarantee that he doesn't need another month or two there, leaves plenty of pa's for asche to get the chance to see if his bat can continue to improve, and also plenty of reps at 3b to continue to work on the defense.

lastly, asche's defense may already be average, if i am correct in recalling that the b-r defensive ratings were much more negative in the early part of the season than the final value. b-r doesn't list defensive splits, and fangraphs seems to just divide the total defensive rating by playing time to get monthly defensive war splits, so all i have to go on is my memory here... and we know that isn't to be trusted. still, i'm inclined to believe that his real 2014 established level is a bit higher than the numbers indicate, so that his median expected value for next season is pretty close to league average at 3b, and maybe at 1b too if his defense plays up like that of some other 3bs who have made the move (e.g. pujols). i would appreciate any scouting updates on asche's defense.

phorever wrote:a team that won't compete till 2017 doesn't lose anything if a young player turns out to be bust, as long as he's not blocking someone with a better chance to help in 2017. 1b/lf options howard/ruf/brown/sizemore don't qualify, and franco wasn't killing it in aaa enough to guarantee that he doesn't need another month or two there, leaves plenty of pa's for asche to get the chance to see if his bat can continue to improve, and also plenty of reps at 3b to continue to work on the defense.

Well, to be fair to the dissenters, Amaro pretty much guaranteed Asche the position through the duration of the ballpark lease....

The Phillies have discussed trying Asche in the outfield, possibly giving him a look there in Spring Training. But following last week's organizational meetings, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said that is not in the current plans.

"We've talked about it, but at this stage, he's a third baseman," Amaro said.

at least we're talking about hard baseball factoids again. or you are, I'm just reading and mainly posting in the soccer page. keep up the good work.

i'm ok with asche as regular to start the season, along with franco starting regularly there in aaa. however, if asche doesn't progress and franco doesn't regress, franco needs to take over at 3b by about june 1st. if asche improves with the bat but not the glove, he moves to 1b at that point. if neither, he goes back to aaa. if both look good on both offense and defense, then whomever the scouts say is the better defender gets 3rd and the other gets 1st

because of his age, (maybe) improving defense, and hitting stats good enough to have a least a couple of really good major league hitters on his age-24 comp list, i just don't want to dump asche till we know whether or not we have an upgrade available at 1b or 3b in the near future.

if he is mostly sucky to start the season, even franco and ruf (or brown, with altherr or dugan moving into the outfield) at the corners will be that upgrade. if he continues to improve, well... right now the minor league system looks pretty bleak there, full time mlb 1b's are almost always overpriced, and the value of the phils trade chips is uncertain. i would rather have an improving asche if the trade market doesn't improve and we don't see significant progress among our corner if/of prospects. if trades of byrd or paps or (shudder) hamels bring back a really good mlb-ready corner fieldin prospect, i'm fine with throwing asche in on that deal or just sending him back to aaa.

Here are the wRC+ and fWAR league averages at 1B, 3B, and LF last year:

First base: 109 wRC+, 64 WAR
Third base: 100, 89
Left field: 103, 84

So not a huge bar to clear in terms of Franco at 1B possibly being our best play long-term, not factoring his and Asche's salaries and Tomas hopefully taking LF.

Can I infer from the lower WAR at 1B a collective defensive weakness? Franco could actually net out strongly in that case.

Which is not to say, though, that Asche has a long leash at 3B for me. Just another half season or so, at least

i like asche but there's no way he's going to play first.

If we assume that, sooner or later, Franco is going to be at one of the corner IF slots and (hopefully) Howard will be gone, the question is simply: Who do you put at the other corner IF position?

Asche has a career 94 OPS+ and is a below-average defender. How about a guy who has a career 121 OPS+ is a slightly above-average corner INF defender, is controllable for as long as Asche and has just entered his prime years? Also bear in mind that Byrd led the team with a 110 OPS+ in 2014, so the latter candidate arguably becomes your most productive hitter by 10%.

There's just no reason to choose Asche or Ruf at this point. Play them both every day until Franco is up, then "worst" case Asche and Ruf are both playing well and you play Ruf in the OF or trade one of them

Has it been completely ruled that Asche cannot play 2nd base?

Phred wrote:Has it been completely ruled that Asche cannot play 2nd base?

They tried that in 2011, and it didn't go well. I haven't read anything about them trying it again

They should. They are going to need someone to play that position although I guess they still really like Hernandez for some reason.

Is Cody Asche a guy you can go to war with 162 days a year on a championship-caliber team? That's a question I ask myself a lot, and the answer has always been no. No matter the position.

I'd leave him at third for now and see what we can squeeze out of him next year.

Does Asche really have enough power to be a regular 1B? I can't see him hitting more than 15 HR a yr; you're normally looking for more than than out of 1B.

Could Asche and Ruf platoon(at 1B/3B) after Franco comes up for good?

RealKen says Boston is one of the 20 teams on Cole's no-trade list