dajafi wrote:I'm pessimistic about the team, but not 30-under-.500 pessimistic. The flip side of schoenfeld's argument is "who's likely to be much worse than last year?" They'll have injuries again, but the depth should be better (if still not good). And I think Sandberg is much better positioned to wring wins out of this roster than Charlie was.

On the other hand, I'm sort of with SQUIRE that 66 wins might be preferable to 77-83 wins. That probably would be read as grounds to take one more spin with the same players, and front office leadership, in 2015.

I agree, "tanking" doesn't really work in baseball unless you get Strasburg and Harper in consecutive drafts, but a true disaster year < 70 wins, would probably lead to a house cleaning in the FO. While it won't turn the team around quickly, it will at least be the start of a turnaround (hopefully) and not another couple years of a "greatest hits" team.

Grotewold wrote:

Shore wrote:1. Last year's 2nd wildcard won 90 games. We won 73.
2. In addition to the 5 playoff teams, 7 other teams were closer to the wildcard than us. We need to leapfrog 8 of those collective 12 teams.
3. We haven't really done anything to improve the team.
4. ...
5. Profit?

2. None of the 12 teams will step back?
3. I know you're not a WAR guy but RF alone could be a big swing. More Ruiz, more Brown, more Revere, more Howard (or Ruf, if not, at a less-damaging position 1B)

You're biased. You never listen to the national audience who doesn't have a bias and have more perspective on the other teams let alone guys like Shore who have done more with baseball research last night than you've ever done. You're incredibly frustrating to argue with because you're so pollyanna that i find myself happy that you're wrong which of course means my team sucks. Which sucks.

Ruiz was a dirty cheater who wasn't very good last year. More 35 year old catcher isn't the answer to any good question. More Brown is an open question given he always gets hurt.

Also, they weren't even an unlucky 73 win team. They were actually UNLUCKY. And you're going to look me in the eye and tell me that Roberto Hernandez, Kyle Kendrick and MAG are a sure thing to fix the rotation... all while not getting any regression from Lee who's getting older? This is laughable.

I remember why I don't check in on this thread, a bunch of sandy vaginas. It's still the offseason, if we can't be foolishly optimistic now, when can we be? I don't see anyone calling for us to be barn burners, but just saying if things break extremely lucky health and play wise we MIGHT be in wildcard contention still near the trade deadline.

slugsrbad wrote:I remember why I don't check in on this thread, a bunch of sandy vaginas. It's still the offseason, if we can't be foolishly optimistic now, when can we be? I don't see anyone calling for us to be barn burners, but just saying if things break extremely lucky health and play wise we MIGHT be in wildcard contention still near the trade deadline.

Yeah, I mean, I'm optimistic, I don't know what the hell is really going to happen, and looking at a few of the different projections, no one does. I just hope we are either good/entertaining/in the hunt, or just suck. Worst thing would be a .500 season IMO.

bill - that's a really tough thing to balance - you can be in the hunt and culminate at .500 or even hanging around at 83-79ish. I don't think what you want (to be in contention yet not really be .500ish) is possible as it implies like 88-90 wins. There is no way on this earth that we'll get to 90.

There's a way for them to get to 90, but it would be the equivalent of hitting on 19 and getting a 2 dealt: great early start plus all-in trade that works.

I think most of us would agree that 1) over a 50 game stretch they might play essentially .500 ball, with breakeven run differential; and 2) it's not so rare or weird to go 30-20 when you "should" be 25-25. Were they to get off to a great start,
I could easily see an empty-the-farm move to goose fan interest.

It probably wouldn't work. Even if you add a 5-6 win player for the last 100-odd games, it's an underlying .500 (or worse, if injuries) team. But luck sometimes doesn't even out in-season. Maybe they stay fortunate and slip in with 88 wins, and continue worrying about the future at some point in the future.

If you want the best-case scenario for 2014,I think that's it. Of course it's more likely they'd regress, then go into next year and beyond with a re-depleted farm and more payroll obligated.

sounds like a plan. Let's do it.

Bill McNeal wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:I remember why I don't check in on this thread, a bunch of sandy vaginas. It's still the offseason, if we can't be foolishly optimistic now, when can we be? I don't see anyone calling for us to be barn burners, but just saying if things break extremely lucky health and play wise we MIGHT be in wildcard contention still near the trade deadline.

Yeah, I mean, I'm optimistic, I don't know what the hell is really going to happen, and looking at a few of the different projections, no one does. I just hope we are either good/entertaining/in the hunt, or just suck. Worst thing would be a .500 season IMO.

Shit man, no sense being all mopey and bummed out in January. The Phillies are an interesting team. How well can Lee and Hamels do? Can Howard make any kind of comeback? Who the hell is this Cuban guy? Not even the Phillies know. Asche. Hernandez. Ruf. Franco. Biddle. Even Revere.

How real is Domonic? How much does Utley have left? Can Rollins get good again for at least a year? How about Chooch? (Funny that he was a dirty cheater before but isn't now even though he's taking the same crap. He will be one of the better catchers in MLB. He will also be a great mentor for Rupp and some of the young stud catchers in the organization).

I like Diekman. I think he might be a killer reliefer guy. The bullpen should be a strength this year. (I say this every year. Sometimes I'm right. GGSA).

Even if the big club sucks, it will be fun to follow the minor leagues. Looking for a new favorite prospect.

Baseball is a funny game.

Philip Sydnor Hoffman, mainlining truth into your busta ass pollyanna vein

Also, we gonna get A. J. Burnett. Him and Marlon Byrd together again. Magic time.

since our collective thoughts on these issues make no practical difference, there's nothing wrong with hope

jeff, how long are you going to stick by the "Ruiz is a dirty cheater" thing even though he's gotten clearance to take adderall for his medical condition

Aw hell Barry. Jeff is plucky. Unlike Lou Grant, I like pluck. Jeff doesn't know much about catcher value. But he isn't afraid to lecture everyone about Chooch. I admire that.

Reminds me of 2008. Back when all the smart guys were writing Chooch off for the first time.

GGSA.

smitty wrote:Aw hell Barry. Jeff is plucky. Unlike Lou Grant, I like pluck. Jeff doesn't know much about catcher value. But he isn't afraid to lecture everyone about Chooch. I admire that.

Reminds me of 2008. Back when all the smart guys were writing Chooch off for the first time.

GGSA.

Trent,
If it was hope, that'd be something, but it's not hope. I hope they're better, you hope they are. But this is denial of reality and arguing with people who don't share the hope (like Schoenfeld) and bring up extremely valid (more valid) points.

Barry, chooch was terrible last year, just awful. And he got a 3 year contract. At age 35. Despicable. It was all based off of cheating he did the year before. He may or may not have been given a waiver. I haven't seen it confirmed. But either way, he didn't find the fountain of youth. Just because smitty's incapable of judging catchers doesn't mean we need to. He was a below average catcher at age 34, he'll be worse throughout the contract.

Jeff,

Tell me all about Chooch's defense. Tell me about his framing skills. Tell me about his ability to handle a pitching staff and call a game. Compare and contrast him to all the great catchers you want to replace him with.

I'm really interested in your expertise in this area.

Seriously.

sydnor wrote:Trent,
If it was hope, that'd be something, but it's not hope. I hope they're better, you hope they are. But this is denial of reality and arguing with people who don't share the hope (like Schoenfeld) and bring up extremely valid (more valid) points.

Barry, chooch was terrible last year, just awful. And he got a 3 year contract. At age 35. Despicable. It was all based off of cheating he did the year before. He may or may not have been given a waiver. I haven't seen it confirmed. But either way, he didn't find the fountain of youth. Just because smitty's incapable of judging catchers doesn't mean we need to. He was a below average catcher at age 34, he'll be worse throughout the contract.

I can't imagine that's the kind of news you're going to get confirmation from the team on. But Rosenthal reports it here.

Ruiz’s suspension is not viewed as a major detriment, according to an official of one club that is pursuing him. Ruiz now has an ADHD exemption for Adderall, the drug that led to his positive test, the official said.

I'm not disputing that it's a bad deal, but I've seen you use that point as part of your argument a couple times and this is at least reason to be optimistic about it. It's possible going off the medication as a result of his suspension hindered his ability to produce at the plate.

smitty wrote:Jeff,

Tell me all about Chooch's defense. Tell me about his framing skills. Tell me about his ability to handle a pitching staff and call a game. Compare and contrast him to all the great catchers you want to replace him with.

I'm really interested in your expertise in this area.

Seriously.

Tell me about how many wins that adds. Tell me that there's a consensus that Ruiz is the best. Tell me that you've watched catchers besides Ruiz enough to form an opinion on framing skills. Tell me that whatever the framing stuff says, it's rock solid, that it's asked and answered and as quantifiable as his atrocious hitting last year. Tell me that unlike offense and running, defense for a catcher magically stays great even as one ages. Tell me all that, because I really want to know.

There is a CHANCE Ruiz is good at framing and that it may be worth 2/3s of a win (http://crashburnalley.com/2011/11/02/ca ... -catchers/). There is also a chance that it is not and he is not.

Chooch is a guy who didn't play high school baseball: started catching late: has caught only 800 big league games; had his best seasons (by far) at ages 30-33.

This is a pretty normal career path so saying he's done at age 35 is really a no brainer.

GGSA.