joe table wrote:

Woody wrote:Here grote I'll try and explain:

E V E R Y T H I N G I N T H I S W O R L D I S S H I T

*buys sixer of Lone Star tallboys*

lol

Grotewold wrote:And the other innings went to a banged-up (and possibly regressing, I guess) Kendrick and a rushed Pettibone. Hamels and Lee had more WAR than the rotation as a whole, which strikes me as unusual

And I know no one wants to hear it, but the timing of the Brown and Revere injuries really hurt. Doc, Howard, and Adams were all risks of different sorts, of course, but negative WAR?

Last year was horrible but not especially predictive, imo. Mark it down priccs

Grote, every team has stories and scenarios and reasons why and what ifs. 35 year olds who have played well recently aren't great bets. 35 year olds that have played poorly recently are awful bets. Even ones that were great for us for a long time.

Do you think this is the second-worst team in baseball?

Second worst team in baseball history behind the Cleveland Spiders from Mars.

pacino wrote:Do you think this is the second-worst team in baseball?

I'm not sure. Haven't spent a lot of time looking at the AL, so the White Sox and Twins might both be worse, in addition to the Astros. Cubs are always in the argument.

I do think we're within 5 games of the 2nd-worst team in baseball. So, an opinion that puts us there doesn't seem crazy.

Shore wrote:

pacino wrote:Do you think this is the second-worst team in baseball?

I'm not sure. Haven't spent a lot of time looking at the AL, so the White Sox and Twins might both be worse, in addition to the Astros. Cubs are always in the argument.

I do think we're within 5 games of the 2nd-worst team in baseball. So, an opinion that puts us there doesn't seem crazy.

It does sound valid. As does this:

The final word: I can see a scenario where the Phillies could win 85-87 games and sneak into the wild-card picture, but a lot has to go right for that to happen.

Hoping for the best and expecting the worst is pretty much the definition of a Phillies fan. I don't think either a hopeful or pessimistic opinion is crazy.

1. Last year's 2nd wildcard won 90 games. We won 73.
2. In addition to the 5 playoff teams, 7 other teams were closer to the wildcard than us. We need to leapfrog 8 of those collective 12 teams.
3. We haven't really done anything to improve the team.
4. ...
5. Profit?

Shore wrote:Grote, every team has stories and scenarios and reasons why and what ifs. 35 year olds who have played well recently aren't great bets. 35 year olds that have played poorly recently are awful bets. Even ones that were great for us for a long time.

But not every team has the exact same scenario. And I do think we got more than our share our bad luck last year, above and beyond the sins of our knuckle dragging GM.

I get the age thing, but we're young (with a chance to be very good, on balance) at three of the eight positions. Another is Utley. We've debated Ruiz and Rollins and Howard and Byrd to death, but even two of them bouncing back a bit or Bryd coming close to replicating 2013 would go a long way. They are what they are, but they're not Brogna and Sefcik and Lake types.

But as phorever demonstrated, pitching was and is the real issue. It was a shit show last year (mostly from guys who aren't here now) and offers a high possibility for improvement, amid the question marks.

I understand the projections and respect them to a degree but just can't accept this is the second or third worst Phils team of my lifetime.

I'm expecting 70-75 again to make sure I leave room for disappointment.

my plan is to watch no games

smitty wrote:Second worst team in baseball history behind the Cleveland Spiders from Mars.

and they were even more overstocked with lefties than we are!

Shore wrote:1. Last year's 2nd wildcard won 90 games. We won 73.
2. In addition to the 5 playoff teams, 7 other teams were closer to the wildcard than us. We need to leapfrog 8 of those collective 12 teams.
3. We haven't really done anything to improve the team.
4. ...
5. Profit?

2. None of the 12 teams will step back?
3. I know you're not a WAR guy but RF alone could be a big swing. More Ruiz, more Brown, more Revere, more Howard (or Ruf, if not, at a less-damaging position 1B)

wasn't shores point that Byrd's WAR at RF would've been really atrocious? Can we find out what that number is compared to the combined phillies RFers last year??

Bucky wrote:wasn't shores point that Byrd's WAR at RF would've been really atrocious? Can we find out what that number is compared to the combined phillies RFers last year??

Byrd played mostly RF last year, where he'll play this year, and was 5 bWAR.

Young was a -1.2 for us in RF. Ruf was -0.1 overall, and I'm guessing a lot of that was the shoddy RF play. Mayberry and Nix played a lot of RF and were -1.1 and -0.7 overall. Susdorf and Carrera got the rest of the burn out there and were terrible.

So while the whole entire world including Byrd knows he may well regress, there's a solid chance for a huge upgrade there. But instead it's all Ricky Ledee jokez

Phils got a wRC+ of 85 from the RF position last year

Barry Jive wrote:Phils got a wRC+ of 85 from the RF position last year

and historically comically bad defense, by any measure

byrd also fits the lineup nicely vs. LHP

for reference the major league average wRC+ at RF was 105; Steamer projects Byrd to hit 100 and Oliver projects him to hit 119 this year

Eh, at worst, Phillies are middle of the pack right now, right below the wild card teams.

I'm pessimistic about the team, but not 30-under-.500 pessimistic. The flip side of schoenfeld's argument is "who's likely to be much worse than last year?" They'll have injuries again, but the depth should be better (if still not good). And I think Sandberg is much better positioned to wring wins out of this roster than Charlie was.

On the other hand, I'm sort of with SQUIRE that 66 wins might be preferable to 77-83 wins. That probably would be read as grounds to take one more spin with the same players, and front office leadership, in 2015.

I will laugh my ass off if Abreu gets a start in RF and injures himself taking a ball to the wall.