oh i see, you're saying you personally never let it be a factor as an ump. unfortunately i don't think cowboy joe west thinks like you

just used the walk-in MRI at the new Mercy Health clinic in the plymouth meeting mall. In and out in 20 minutes.

RUBE TAKE NOTE

I'm sure every ump thinks the same thing.

Can we make the pathetic, lazy, whingebag pansies thread the official random Phillies one? It has a more civil tone.

Trent Steele wrote:I'm sure every ump thinks the same thing.

Hate the umps who wait forever after a pitch to make their calls. Not only is it self-aggrandizing and slows down the game, but you have to wonder why they're not going into their call already when the pitch hits the mitt.

uncle milt wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:Chooch was 60th out of 79 C in pitch framing last year (-6 runs below average). He was 20th the year before (+5.3).

So he's a bad pitch framer. Or a good pitch framer. Or neither. Or both.

how do they account for bad umps when measuring this?

Pitch framing is only relevant to track BECAUSE there are bad umps (by "bad", I mean umps that do worse than a computer calling balls and strikes). It's not a variable to be controlled, but a key input/ingredient to the metric!

I guess it's time to wrap this up.

Framing is only part of catcher defense/value. Blocking pitches, not allowing wild pitches and committing passed balls and fielding batted balls are also a big part of what catchers can do well or poorly.

Over the last four or five years, there has been some good research done in this area. I have read everything I could on this because I find it interesting. I can say that Ruiz does very well in all these facets of the game according to the research. Framing may be his weakest area but he is not bad.

The bottom line is right now is I'm happy Chooch is still on the team. I think he will get hurt a lot over the next three years. But I think he will be pretty valuable.

Best case is one of our young guys takes over for Chooch at some point and is a big star.

td11 wrote:

sydnor wrote:

smitty wrote:

sydnor wrote:viewtopic.php_f=1&t=13736&p=1536267&hilit=catcher#p1536267

slugs, there you go. More research. I'm not going to bother to study catcher defense because I have other things to do like not get promoted.

Bucky, that's a low blow but so be it. I actually don't sweat losing the direct reports. Managing people is for suckers (believe me if i never do another annual report it will be too soon). The promotion hurts though.

Of course you won't look at catcher defense or the other aspects of catcher value that I've mentioned because it would blow your whole theory out of the water. You actually don't have to study catcher defense and other aspects of catcher value yourself. It's already been done. All you have to do is look at it. You won't have access to all the stuff I have access to. But it wouldn't be hard to find stuff to destroy your theory.

Like my old friend floppy, you start with a conclusion and then try to make the "facts" fit.

It is so much fun dealing with this type of backwards analysis.

Almost as good as the Brandon Wood breakout thread.

GGSA. Lol. OMG.

What the hell are you talking about the stuff you have access to. You're a security guard. I worked for one of the foremost baseball research companies out there. If you're getting into a dick waving contest at least come with something.

where'd you work?

yo i still wanna know

He worked for Baseball Prospectus I believe

Pecota is out, they don't have Phillies as bottom 3 teams. 76-86, 3rd in the east, 7 teams in the majors with worse records.

Utley best player, Ruiz second, only 2 position guys worth more than 2 wins.

Lee, Hamels, Papelbon, then a lot of slop.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php_tm=PHI

Shore wrote:Pecota is out, they don't have Phillies as bottom 3 teams. 76-86, 3rd in the east, 7 teams in the majors with worse records.

Utley best player, Ruiz second, only 2 position guys worth more than 2 wins.

Lee, Hamels, Papelbon, then a lot of slop.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php_tm=PHI

I think that's pretty fair.

I think Hamels and Byrd will be worth more than that, but not in a difference-making amount. PECOTA has no idea what to do with MAG, but then neither do the Phillies. I probably could argue for a few more wins on the upside.

Sad that our $500k 1B is projected to be an exact clone of our $25m 1B. I'm no economist, but that seems like a fucking tire fire waste of money.

Shore wrote:Pecota is out, they don't have Phillies as bottom 3 teams. 76-86, 3rd in the east, 7 teams in the majors with worse records.

Utley best player, Ruiz second, only 2 position guys worth more than 2 wins.

Lee, Hamels, Papelbon, then a lot of slop.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php_tm=PHI

meaning your 72 win (90 loss) call is lower than those of steamer (73), davenport (73), playing-time adjusted oliver (75 according to schmenkman, which is about what i got), and pecota (76). probably below marcel, which should be pretty darn close to be schmenkman's 78 wins for the 3-year average roster minus the standard 0.5 win deduction for each of the 8 30+ fulltimers (starting pitchers and fielders plus paps) which is 74.

what do you know that some of the best in the business are missing?

phorever wrote:

Shore wrote:Pecota is out, they don't have Phillies as bottom 3 teams. 76-86, 3rd in the east, 7 teams in the majors with worse records.

Utley best player, Ruiz second, only 2 position guys worth more than 2 wins.

Lee, Hamels, Papelbon, then a lot of slop.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php_tm=PHI

meaning your 72 win (90 loss) call is lower than those of steamer (73), davenport (73), playing-time adjusted oliver (75 according to schmenkman, which is about what i got), and pecota (76). probably below marcel, which should be pretty darn close to be schmenkman's 78 wins for the 3-year average roster minus the standard 0.5 win deduction for each of the 8 30+ fulltimers (starting pitchers and fielders plus paps) which is 74.

what do you know that some of the best in the business are missing?

Are we really calling bullshit over whether this team projects to win 72 or 73 or 75 games? Why does this matter?

phorever wrote:

Shore wrote:Pecota is out, they don't have Phillies as bottom 3 teams. 76-86, 3rd in the east, 7 teams in the majors with worse records.

Utley best player, Ruiz second, only 2 position guys worth more than 2 wins.

Lee, Hamels, Papelbon, then a lot of slop.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php_tm=PHI

meaning your 72 win (90 loss) call is lower than those of steamer (73), davenport (73), playing-time adjusted oliver (75 according to schmenkman, which is about what i got), and pecota (76). probably below marcel, which should be pretty darn close to be schmenkman's 78 wins for the 3-year average roster minus the standard 0.5 win deduction for each of the 8 30+ fulltimers (starting pitchers and fielders plus paps) which is 74.

what do you know that some of the best in the business are missing?

Pecota will always have higher win totals for the worst teams, and lower win totals for the best teams. Pecota has 1 90-win team projected, and 4 90-loss teams. Last year, IRL, there were 11 90-win teams, and 5 90-loss teams. 16 "extreme" teams in 2013, 5 projected in Pecota.

I'm comfy, right now, saying 90 losses.

They're too high on chooch. WAYYYY too low on Byrd.

Brown is weird - they have him losing I'd guess 3/4 of a win in the outfield while Ruf loses .1? I'd have guessed that it was due to PT, but Ruf's getting about 80% of the abs that Brown gets.

Not sure I can trust anything that tries to purport Ben Revere will be more valuable than Dom.

sydnor wrote:They're too high on chooch. WAYYYY too low on Byrd.

A few weeks ago, I guessed Byrd would be about .265/.310/.425 with 15 homers and 60 RBI.
Pecota has him at .264/.311/.413 with 13 homers and 58 RBI.

I don't think they're even one Y way too low

I take your point, shore. I was responding to the 0.3 WAR in saying too low. I don't think there's much of a chance he's below 1 WAR and I'd bet you but of course you don't much like WAR.

But Ben Revere 1.7 FFS. I know I want Byrd up there by a long shot if we have a key AB (and I get defense up to a point).

WAR doesnt measure who you want up there for a key AB

So the orioles evidently are "finalists" for arroyo. I wonder if their getting him would put us in the catbird seat for Burnett.

Orioles signing Bronson Arroyo would also mean I can throw out the rat poison that I saved to eat in case the Phillies signed Bronson Arroyo