MAD DOG auditioning for teams tomorrow

Phillies should hire him along with Moyer and Stairs, Madson can do the redtube feed.

Bill McNeal wrote:Phillies should hire him along with Moyer and Stairs, Madson can do the redtube feed.

Speaking of seventh inning stretch

Getting kinda late for some if these FAs isn't it?

On Burnett:

“I don’t suspect we’ll be doing anything,” he said Friday. “I think we’ve got what we’ve got. I suspect we’ll go into the season with what we’ve got – or at least spring training with what we’ve got. We’re always looking, always trolling. I know there are guys out there, but I don’t suspect us having anything major coming through.”

Amazing.

Apparently Brian Bixler is a Phillies

on burnett: sigh!

on war: finally got around to test i kept postponing...
i figured out (i hope) the best way to turn fangraphs rar numbers into runs scored and allowed estimates (non-trivial... where do the league and replacement numbers fit... can i just add position player defense to pitching runs saved?) so that i could check a few theoretically interesting correllations with actual runs scored and prevented. i turned everything into team runs/game for the 2013 pre and post allstar stats.
obvious issues with roster changes and the september callup issue, but the somewhat superior test of the most stable 2-month periods takes to long to put together, and this should still be better than season-to-season (more roster changes) or individual player comparisons (can't measure actual run impact independent of the team.

results: 1st half to 2nd half actual run/game correlation = .67
1st half to 2nd half war offensive run/game correlation = .74
1st half to 2nd half actual runs allowed /game correlation = .57
1st half to 2nd half war runs allowed/game correlation = .61
1st half war offensive run/game to 2nd half actual runs/game correlation = .61 [somewhat worse than actual 1st half runs at predicting 2nd half runs]
1st half war runs allowed /game to 2nd half actual runs allowed / game correlation = .77 [much better than actual 1st half runs allowed at predicting 2nd half runs allowed]
1st half actual run differential to 2nd half actual run differential correlation = .71
1st half war run differential to 2nd half actual run differential correlation = .80 [better than actual 1st half differential at predicting 2nd half differential]

conclusion: summing past recent past war totals for individual players on a roster is at least as useful as actual team runs in predicting future team performance. the war system seems not to be as unreliable as implied by shore.

Another new Phillies: Independent league SS K.C. Serna, who BA rated as their top unsigned player in October

True shortstops don’t end up in indy ball. A shortstop in the independent leagues is usually a second baseman or third baseman in affiliated ball at best, because major league organizations simply don’t release legitimate defenders at short.

Serna is the exception, but with good reason. A three-year starter at Oregon, Serna’s junior year was clouded by a suspension for violating team rules. He fell in the 2011 draft, getting picked by the Indians in the 42nd round. They released him in the spring of 2012 because of makeup issues. Serna bounced around to the Freedom League before landing in Amarillo this spring.

Amarillo manager Bobby Brown told Serna that he was joining the club with two strikes against him because of his previous problems. Brown said he’s now convinced that the shortstop has matured.

“I tell everyone I’m not standing at the table, I’m standing on top of the table for this kid. He doesn’t drink, doesn’t smoke. He gave me no problems. He’s been a model citizen,” Brown said.

Serna hit over .300 while playing the best defense in the league.

“His range, arm strength and instincts are second to none,” Brown said.

BigEd76 wrote:Another new Phillies: Independent league SS K.C. Serna, who BA rated as their top unsigned player

*Awaits BRef link about him being the worst hitter since Puddin Head Jones*

puddin head jones had excellent tools. it was the injuries that did him in.

If it's good enough for Bobby Brown, I think we will all like our new edition

1 wrote:If it's good enough for Bobby Brown, I think we will all like our new edition

hour long rides on the tower of power

Went through some older top independent league prospect lists and never heard of any of the guys on any of them except Daniel Nava who was #1 in '07.

Grotewold wrote:

BigEd76 wrote:Another new Phillies: Independent league SS K.C. Serna, who BA rated as their top unsigned player

*Awaits BRef link about him being the worst hitter since Puddin Head Jones*

I'm willing to cling to any evidence at all that the Phillies are actually trying to find good players, so I'm now all in on Serna.

CFP wrote:On Burnett:

“I don’t suspect we’ll be doing
anything,” he said Friday. “I think we’ve got what we’ve got. I suspect we’ll go into the season with what we’ve got – or at least spring training with what we’ve got. We’re always looking, always trolling. I know there are guys out there, but I don’t suspect us having anything major coming through.”

Amazing.

If they are not even going to try and compete I'm not sure why they re-signed chooch and added Byrd

It's encouraging that they're bringing in at least one more person to make a "department." Though it seems like they have this guy doing everything under the sun, including an IT evaluation, which is no small task. I have to wonder how much time he actually gets to spend on baseball analytics. It looks like he's saying they'll add one more person, an intern, to do some additional analytics, so we'll now have 1.25-1.5 people working on the task. I'm not sure what most teams have, but it's a start.

David Schoenfeld, ESPN predicts the phillies as the 2nd worst team in MLB and worst in the NL, winning less than 73 games (FWIW). The money shot:

"I'm just the messenger: With Ruiz, Howard, Byrd, Utley and Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies are counting on five regulars in their age-34 seasons or older. Only four teams have had five position players that old bat 400-plus times in a season -- the 1945 White Sox, 1985 Angels and 2002 and 2007 Giants. Hey, it worked for the 2002 Giants, who went to the World Series. But these Phillies don't have Barry Bonds in the middle of the lineup."

so you're saying we should sign Barry?