phillies sign marlon byrd

by **joe table** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 17:38:02

Also Butler is a 120 wRC+ DH who is four months younger than Ruf. Ruf was actually pretty significantly better than him last year and is under contract for min salary. What am I missing here

The only reason you got my dander up is you come in here calling people braindead unless they hate the move and then don't really show the most unassailable logic to support the point. Ease up bro

by **phdave** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 17:43:17

I've not been following Byrd's recent career too closely. I remember him getting suspended and getting released I think. I refreshed my memory that he was on the DL after getting hit in the face May 21, 2011:

http://wapc.mlb.com/play/?content_id=15040897

He was hitting .308/.346/.419/.765 at the time in 182 PA. He came back from the DL in July and went .255/.311/.380/.691 for the rest of the season in 300 PA. The next season he had a .210/.243/.245/.488 line in 153 total PA.

In the 4 seasons before 2011 he had a .294/.350/.456/.807 line over 2145 PAs. Last year he was .291/.336/.511/.847 in 579 PAs.

So, his last year looks like an outlier as does the 453 PA stretch post face breaking. The bad outlier looks more extreme than the good outlier. He's older. The good stretch is more recent.

No conclusion. The end.

by **milton bernard thompson** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 17:48:14

belmont, i think you're kind of missing the forest for the trees. i understand that overpaying for a possibly fluky good season from an old dude is bad practice in general, and that getting cheap young players is good practice. but byrd at 35 is like howard or fielder at 30, and we're paying a third of his WAR for last season. he fills a position that we desperately need to have filled. just no reason to dislike this move that i can see. he doesn't have to hit 25 homers or put up an OPS in the high-800s for the deal to be worth it. he had what, 5 WAR last year? If he can average 2 WAR over the next two years it would make this deal a clear win, and if i had to wager i would go with the over on that one.

by **Monkeyboy** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 17:50:11

Why can't we all get along ... island iced tea?

It wouldn't surprise me if Byrd is worth the contract they just gave him. My primary concern is that they jumped all over him before letting the market develop. Amaro seems to identify his guys and then go all out to get them, even if it doesn't make sense to do so. Every hole filled with someone who is just average (at best, most likely) is a hole that cannot be used to get significantly better. Sure, if Byrd's last season wasn't a fluke, we got a little better today, but just a little. Why jump all over a move that just makes us a little better (at best) and not let the market play out a bit in hopes of something happening that will make us much better? This is just unnecessary at this stage.

It's about the least creative thing they could have done, and I was promised some creativity, dammit.

Honestly, this looks like Amaro still thinks they are just a little tweaking and better health away from another playoff run. If that's the case, he's completely delusional.

by **JFLNYC** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 18:00:39

joe table wrote:YDoes that mean once he blows out the candles on his cake this year he is no longer the dude who hit a lot of bombs out of Citi Field last year and is now randomly generated 36 year old OF from the actuary chart?

There's some doubt he'll even be able to blow out the candles.

by **CFP** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 18:01:44

Ryan Lawrence ‏@ryanlawrence21 5m

Actual quote on Mayberry" I would assume (we'd tender a contract). We haven’t made any final decisions. But I’d view him as a tender."

Jesus Christ

by **phdave** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 18:03:42

I don't see why this signals they believe they are a tweak away from a playoff run. They may think that but I don't see why this signing signals it. When they were making the playoffs, they made big moves that required giving up desired prospects and draft picks. They haven't made a big move like that since they started losing (unless you count signing Cole and Chase who didn't cost draft picks). This move just seems like another move they have been making lately: fill out the roster and fill holes while not giving up draft picks or highly regarded prospects.

by **Squire** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 18:04:25

CFP wrote:
Ryan Lawrence ‏@ryanlawrence21 5m

Actual quote on Mayberry" I would assume (we'd tender a contract). We haven’t made any final decisions. But I’d view him as a tender."

Jesus Christ

Stanford guy gonna get paid.

by **Shore** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 18:09:23

joe table wrote:Do you really want to argue that Citi Field is a good hitters park now? Because that would sure be putting a lot of stock in those 1 year sample size stats you have been decrying all thread

And the greater point is that the home runs he hit averaged 412 feet last year so it's not like he bounced a bunch off the railings to explain his power surge

They changed the dimensions prior to 2012, didn't they? And it's been 12th and 10th out of 30 for homers in the 2 years since. Or did they change it some other time? I honestly can't remember.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 18:19:13

I always liked Marlon, was very happy for him last season.

Not my money, so I am glad to see him back.

by **Monkeyboy** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 18:24:02

phdave wrote:I don't see why this signals they believe they are a tweak away from a playoff run. They may think that but I don't see why this signing signals it. When they were making the playoffs, they made big moves that required giving up desired prospects and draft picks. They haven't made a big move like that since they started losing (unless you count signing Cole and Chase who didn't cost draft picks). This move just seems like another move they have been making lately: fill out the roster and fill holes while not giving up draft picks or highly regarded prospects.

It may not signal that. But with Amaro's history/statements and the fact that they went after a marginal upgrade so fast, it really makes me wonder. I think it has that appearance, even if that's not the fact. ymmv

by **Trent Steele** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 18:31:37

I, for one, am glad to be able to put a check next to the "RF" box on my list of needs so early in the offseason.

Excited to see what is next. (crossing fingers for Pierzynski, Chris Perez, and Jose Veras)

by **sydnor** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 18:41:34

Monkeyboy wrote:
phdave wrote:I don't see why this signals they believe they are a tweak away from a playoff run. They may think that but I don't see why this signing signals it. When they were making the playoffs, they made big moves that required giving up desired prospects and draft picks. They haven't made a big move like that since they started losing (unless you count signing Cole and Chase who didn't cost draft picks). This move just seems like another move they have been making lately: fill out the roster and fill holes while not giving up draft picks or highly regarded prospects.

It may not signal that. But with Amaro's history/statements and the fact that they went after a marginal upgrade so fast, it really makes me wonder. I think it has that appearance, even if that's not the fact. ymmv

Slow down, this is NOT a marginal upgrade. Last year we were beyond awful in rf. Byrd got 4.5 wins. Even if he gets half that, it's a big win. It's not Choo or Ellsbury, granted, but marginal is too faint in its praise.

by **smitty** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 18:41:58

Byrd was a + 11 in dewan's system last year. That's real good.

Byrd is a very unusual player who has had a very unusual career. Him having a great year at age 35 pretty much fits perfectly into his career line. There is absolutely know way of knowing what he will do over the next two seasons. He's simply too weird.

I really don't care how creative the Phillies are this off season. Creativity often results in lousy teams. I just want them to have good players. How creative they are doesn't matter in my view.

by **Grotewold** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 18:48:33

Monkeyboy wrote:It's about the least creative thing they could have done, and I was promised some creativity, dammit.

It's almost certainly the first of several moves. (I know, the rest are gonna suck too # Everything Sucks Forever)

Not sure what you mean by creative, but the Gonzalez signing felt new and fun. Last year, I would classify the Revere and MYoung moves as pretty creative. He's reportedly gung ho for Stanton after pulling off huge trades like that in the past. Not sure what you're looking for.

Maybe he can introduce Byrd with a sonnet

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 19:10:40

ek wrote:Law
... but Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro just couldn't help himself ...

That made me laugh and cry simultaneously.

The Phillies' outfield now looks like Byrd, Ben Revere and Domonic Brown, with Darin Ruf likely relegated to bench duty or Triple-A

And that only made me cry.

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 19:11:19

joe table wrote:Do you really want to argue that Citi Field is a good hitters park now?

(they changed dimensions in 2012)

[Reveal] Spoiler:

The new smaller Citi Field with shorter fences and smaller dimensions

by **Monkeyboy** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 19:19:15

smitty wrote:Byrd was a + 11 in dewan's system last year. That's real good.

Byrd is a very unusual player who has had a very unusual career. Him having a great year at age 35 pretty much fits perfectly into his career line. There is absolutely know way of knowing what he will do over the next two seasons. He's simply too weird.

I really don't care how creative the Phillies are this off season. Creativity often results in lousy teams. I just want them to have good players. How creative they are doesn't matter in my view.

It doesn't really matter to me either. But when you preach creativity for the last month or so and then sign Marlon Byrd the first week of FA, I just kinda have to laugh and make fun of it.

by **Monkeyboy** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 19:24:54

Grotewold wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:It's about the least creative thing they could have done, and I was promised some creativity, dammit.

It's almost certainly the first of several moves. (I know, the rest are gonna suck too # Everything Sucks Forever)

Not sure what you mean by creative, but the Gonzalez signing felt new and fun. Last year, I would classify the Revere and MYoung moves as pretty creative. He's reportedly gung ho for Stanton after pulling off huge trades like that in the past. Not sure what you're looking for.

Maybe he can introduce Byrd with a sonnet

everything didn't suck forever until Amaro took over and started tearing down this team. No doubt you'll find reasons to like all the moves and we'll end up winning 70 or so games again. Given your record at analyzing these moves, I don't think you should be pointing any fingers or making fun of the opinions of others. I mean, holy pollyanna, grote.

As I said, he may end up being worth this contract, but that doesn't make it a good move. When you consider the likelihood that he'll regress and the timing of the signing, it's just not a good move, imho

by **Grotewold** » Tue Nov 12, 2013 19:32:33

Way to completely dodge the creativity issue you raised

And if you want to take the cheap shot at my pollyanism as it relates to Amaro and the Phils, you've got to take it back to 2005 bub

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