Marlon's back?

Goddam.

joe table wrote:I like what he did with his swing (lowered hands to shorten path to ball). The dead center HR in San Fran is impressive. He's clearly a strong dude and I defy you to find a FA right fielder with a better rack

Look, nobody is saying that Marlon Byrd doesn't have an excellent rack. So just stop with the strawmen.

Shore wrote:Anyone who tries to rationalize 2 years, $16M is fucking brain-dead.

It'll only be like 1 year since his next PED suspension would be for 1 year.

don't really get the outrage/disgustedness? i know he used to be on the phillies and his name is marlon byrd, but there's a decent chance he can be a good offensive player for us. every significant signing RAJ made last offseason was considerably more stupid.

milton bernard thompson wrote:don't really get the outrage/disgustedness? i know he used to be on the phillies and his name is marlon byrd, but there's a decent chance he can be a good offensive player for us. every significant signing RAJ made last offseason was considerably more stupid.

So just because he butchered last offseason, if he butchers this one less it is better? I think people that don't like this move feel like it didn't need to be done on 11/12. He is the type of player that you could wait to see if you could get him later at a cheaper price, or find maybe someone younger and cheaper.

joe table wrote:Pence just got 5-90, this is wind pissing

Jeez. If that's this year's market, I'm not screaming

heyeaglefn wrote:So just because he butchered last offseason, if he butchers this one less it is better? I think people that don't like this move feel like it didn't need to be done on 11/12. He is the type of player that you could wait to see if you could get him later at a cheaper price, or find maybe someone younger and cheaper.

well, yes, if he butchers this season less than the last one then it is by definition better. however, this is not a BUTCHER move. 8 mil/yr for a corner OF who can theoretically play CF, is decent defensively, coming off a 138 OPS+ season -- certainly babip-aided but not completely out of whack. it seems like a pretty straightforward move that isn't worthy of complaining about. i personally like it.

as for getting him later in the offseason... i really don't think he was going to go for much cheaper than that. if it was 2/16 now or we don't get him, i would prefer the former.

milton bernard thompson wrote:

heyeaglefn wrote:So just because he butchered last offseason, if he butchers this one less it is better? I think people that don't like this move feel like it didn't need to be done on 11/12. He is the type of player that you could wait to see if you could get him later at a cheaper price, or find maybe someone younger and cheaper.

well, yes, if he butchers this season less than the last one then it is by definition better. however, this is not a BUTCHER move. 8 mil/yr for a corner OF (i'm guessing his CF days are behind him but i don't actually know?) who is decent defensively, coming off a 138 OPS+ season. nevertheless, it seems like a pretty straightforward move that isn't worthy of complaining about. i personally like it.

as for getting him later in the offseason... i really don't think he was going to go for much cheaper than that. if it was 2/16 now or we don't get him, i would prefer the former.

So the only season on which we base his value is last year? Despite 11 prior seasons, none of which sniffed his age 35 year?

I like this a lot better than the Michael Young deal last year

Amaro's stats don't go back past last year.

Shore wrote:So the only season on which we base his value is last year? Despite 11 prior seasons, none of which sniffed his age 35 year?

uh, no. if we based his value solely on last year, he would be worth like $15 mil/yr+. with his entire career and last year considered, i believe he's worth $8 mil. could be wrong!

Monkeyboy wrote:

joe table wrote:I defy you to find a FA right fielder with a better rack

Look, nobody is saying that Marlon Byrd doesn't have an excellent rack.

He's been trying to manage that by taking a drug that supresses breast enlargement.

Ace Rothstein wrote:I like this a lot better than the Michael Young deal last year

i guess thats one way to look at it.

milton bernard thompson wrote:f we based his value solely on last year, he would be worth like $15 mil/yr+

way way more than that

the market has changed dramatically

Grotewold wrote:If you believe in bWAR and the latest thinking on the value of a win, this guy was worth $35M last year. I'm skeptical of that, wary of his age and terrible 2012, etc., but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if he earns most of that contract in 2014.

FanGraphs has him at $20M for last year. Of course, they have the total value of all players at just over $5B dollars, when the league spent $3.2B. And, in fact, that includes 0-value and negative value players, who don't earn zero or negative dollars. FanGraphs has all "positive value" players earning $5.9B, or nearly twice what was actually spent on all players.

He had more than twice as many WAR as Beltron last year, and was 10th in the league in WAR among OF. I'm still lost as to why he can't help improve the team for next year over our incumbent RF dreck. What would have really moved the needle for next year, Billy Butler's .124 ISO out of the 1B spot?

Grotewold wrote:

milton bernard thompson wrote:f we based his value solely on last year, he would be worth like $15 mil/yr+

way way more than that

the market has changed dramatically

Pence is historically a WAY better player, and 5 years younger, coming off the same year. He got $19/yr. way way more and dramatically seem a little.... over the top.

Grotewold wrote:

milton bernard thompson wrote:f we based his value solely on last year, he would be worth like $15 mil/yr+

way way more than that

the market has changed dramatically

yep, WAR and whatnot would have him higher than 15 for sure but i was trying to be conservative taking into account his age. in any event, a lot of wiggle room between wherever he was and $8 mil. i think it's likely that he can produce at or above the level we're paying him.

Shore wrote:

Grotewold wrote:

milton bernard thompson wrote:f we based his value solely on last year, he would be worth like $15 mil/yr+

way way more than that

the market has changed dramatically

Pence is historically a WAY better player, and 5 years younger, coming off the same year. He got $19/yr. way way more and dramatically seem a little.... over the top.

I was responding specifically to what Byrd's 5-win (or really high SLG or OPS+ or whatever else you want to use) 2013 was worth

milton bernard thompson wrote:i was trying to be conservative taking into account his age. in any event, a lot of wiggle room between wherever he was and $8 mil. i think it's likely that he can produce at or above the level we're paying him.

Agreed

ek wrote:Law

I said I wouldn't go beyond $6-7 million and one year for Marlon Byrd, but Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro just couldn't help himself and signed the outfielder to a two-year, $16 million deal that is a little overpriced but also indicates that Amaro believes, in the face of a lot of contrary evidence, that Byrd's fluke 2013 performance is real.

This is the typical comment from the experts today, and it's just fundamentally wrong. To believe Byrd's 2013 was real is to give him a shit ton of money. To give him 2/16 (exactly as the experts predicted) is to believe he can even sniff that one of the two years, or for a little bit of each