joe table wrote:He had more than twice as many WAR as Beltron last year, and was 10th in the league in WAR among OF. I'm still lost as to why he can't help improve the team for next year over our incumbent RF dreck. What would have really moved the needle for next year, Billy Butler's .124 ISO out of the 1B spot?

Fuck WAR, first off.

Second, did you borrow Amaro's spreadsheet (haha, Amaro/spreadsheet). The only that only includes last year? If so, sure, Marlon Byrd looks just as likely to help as Butler. Mine goes back a couple of years, and includes birthdate. So, yeah, I'd feel dramatically different about a 28-year-old with an .823 career OPS than I do about a 36-year-old with a .761.

heyeaglefn wrote:
Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo 18s
The other common response in the lobby of the GM Meetings hotel to the 2-year, $16 million Marlon Byrd deal with Phils was: "Melky Cabrera."

Melky's deal was way worse.

You keep saying 36. Well at 35 he fucking mashed. Does that mean once he blows out the candles on his cake this year he is no longer the dude who hit a lot of bombs out of Citi Field last year and is now randomly generated 36 year old OF from the actuary chart? Especially given that the inputs for him (like FB%, derived from the mechanical changes ) changed from what they were previously

We didn't lose picks, we didn't trade prospects, we spent 5% of the payroll for a guy who hit a lot of very long home runs last year and is a real corner OFer defensively

What if his swing change that lead to his big season leads to one or two more? Feel like adjustments like that are often overlooked or readily dismissed.

I do think there is something to be said for the notion that the most recent data is the most relevant.

Though I do kinda like the potted plant line from Law. Could totally see Rube as the Chris Walken character from the SNL skit with the googly eyed plants

Shore wrote:Second, did you borrow Amaro's spreadsheet (haha, Amaro/spreadsheet). The only that only includes last year? If so, sure, Marlon Byrd looks just as likely to help as Butler. Mine goes back a couple of years, and includes birthdate. So, yeah, I'd feel dramatically different about a 28-year-old with an .823 career OPS than I do about a 36-year-old with a .761.

Your spreadsheet must also be cool with giving up premium prospects for Butler and Ryan Howard (who even last year mashed righties) for nothing. I'm not

joe table wrote:You keep saying 36. Well at 35 he fucking mashed. Does that mean once he blows out the candles on his cake this year he is no longer the dude who hit a lot of bombs out of Citi Field last year and is now randomly generated 36 year old OF from the actuary chart? Especially given that the inputs for him (like FB%, derived from the mechanical changes ) changed from what they were previously

We didn't lose picks, we didn't trade prospects, we spent 5% of the payroll for a guy who hit a lot of very long home runs last year and is a real corner OFer defensively

He was 31st in the league in HR last year with 24. It's the 2nd time he's hit more than 12. He also hit 7 homers at Citi Field last year, in 223 PA. Let's not get carried away.

Prior to last year, he'd played RF 773 innings in 11 years. About 8 full games per year. The numbers I've seen say he's somewhere between below average and above average as a fielder in RF, but perhaps there are others.

ReadingPhilly wrote:What if his swing change that lead to his big season leads to one or two more? Feel like adjustments like that are often overlooked or readily dismissed.

Perhaps so. He'll be ours at age 36 and 37. I think it's a bad bet.

A Marlon Byrd thirty-six is different than your typical thirty-six, in my opinion. He worked with Conte in the past, and I'm sure he's still working with him or other people in that area. I'm going to assume everything he's taking is legal, but I couldn't care less if it is or isn't. The bottom line is that he pays attention to his body and is absurdly strong. It just isn't your normal thirty-six. That strength isn't disappearing in the off-season. I think it's ridiculous for Law to compare him to other thirty-six year olds. Thsoe guys weren't ingesting 87 different supplements a day. The guy is absulrdly strong and looks like he made some positive changes to his swing. The plan wasn't going to be tear the thing down so I think this is the best patch job you could have hoped for.

Now, let's hope Byrd introduces Howard to Conte.

Grotewold wrote:

Shore wrote:Second, did you borrow Amaro's spreadsheet (haha, Amaro/spreadsheet). The only that only includes last year? If so, sure, Marlon Byrd looks just as likely to help as Butler. Mine goes back a couple of years, and includes birthdate. So, yeah, I'd feel dramatically different about a 28-year-old with an .823 career OPS than I do about a 36-year-old with a .761.

Your spreadsheet must also be cool with giving up premium prospects for Butler and Ryan Howard (who even last year mashed righties) for nothing. I'm not

Nope....

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 22 Oct
Royals ready to talk about Billy Butler deal for teams that would take on DH owed $8 million in '14, $12m in 2015.

I'm willing to SPEND MONEY to get rid of Howard, and to SPEND MONEY to acquire Butler. If Butler takes "premium prospects", I'd see who they think is premium.

Shore wrote:

joe table wrote:You keep saying 36. Well at 35 he #$!&@ mashed. Does that mean once he blows out the candles on his cake this year he is no longer the dude who hit a lot of bombs out of Citi Field last year and is now randomly generated 36 year old OF from the actuary chart? Especially given that the inputs for him (like FB%, derived from the mechanical changes ) changed from what they were previously

We didn't lose picks, we didn't trade prospects, we spent 5% of the payroll for a guy who hit a lot of very long home runs last year and is a real corner OFer defensively

He was 31st in the league in HR last year with 24. It's the 2nd time he's hit more than 12. He also hit 7 homers at Citi Field last year, in 223 PA. Let's not get carried away.

Prior to last year, he'd played RF 773 innings in 11 years. About 8 full games per year. The numbers I've seen say he's somewhere between below average and above average as a fielder in RF, but perhaps there are others.

7th in NL in ISO playing in two extreme pitcher friendly parks and I went over the HR distance numbers a couple pages back

Real OFer meaning not Delmon Young or Darin Ruf, the OF defenders who we are seeking to improve upon. I'll get a better sense as to whether he's actually good watching him play, but even if he grows DD cups he's a defensive upgrade over what we had

Shore wrote:
Nope....

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 22 Oct
Royals ready to talk about Billy Butler deal for teams that would take on DH owed $8 million in '14, $12m in 2015.

I'm willing to SPEND MONEY to get rid of Howard, and to SPEND MONEY to acquire Butler. If Butler takes "premium prospects", I'd see who they think is premium.

So Butler is this awesome young hitter, yet we can get him cheaply? That's really not a lot of money that he's owed.

And how much money are we talking about, exactly, that you'd eat for Howard?

joe table wrote:7th in NL in ISO playing in two extreme pitcher friendly parks and I went over the HR distance numbers a couple pages back

Citi Field was the 10th-best (for hitters) park for HR in the league last year.

Do the Phillies need a DH?

Grotewold wrote:

Shore wrote:
Nope....

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 22 Oct
Royals ready to talk about Billy Butler deal for teams that would take on DH owed $8 million in '14, $12m in 2015.

I'm willing to SPEND MONEY to get rid of Howard, and to SPEND MONEY to acquire Butler. If Butler takes "premium prospects", I'd see who they think is premium.

So Butler is this awesome young hitter, yet we can get him cheaply? That's really not a lot of money that he's owed.

Not my story, it's Buster's. But apparently, the Royals think differently. I'm not saying cheaply, I'm saying take all of the contract, and the minimum talent exchange it takes. They're the fucking Royals, they traded Wil Myers for James Shields.

And how much money are we talking about, exactly, that you'd eat for Howard?

The absolute minimum that I could. But I'd spend every dollar of that amount, whatever it is.

phdave wrote:Do the Phillies need a DH?

We do. We got rid of the 2 we signed last year that Grote told me would work out.

Shore wrote:Not my story, it's Buster's. But apparently, the Royals think differently. I'm not saying cheaply, I'm saying take all of the contract, and the minimum talent exchange it takes. They're the fucking Royals, they traded Wil Myers for James Shields

More a (perhaps sloppily worded) tweet than a story, really. But the point remains that if he's as good a hitter as you're saying, to the point that his horrendous defense doesn't matter, not just you but some GMs are probably aware of it

Shore wrote:The absolute minimum that I could. But I'd spend every dollar of that amount, whatever it is.

So you'd pay like $40M to get rid of Howard, on top of the prospect and salary cost of Butler? But Byrd's $16M chaps your ass?

Grotewold wrote:

Shore wrote:Not my story, it's Buster's. But apparently, the Royals think differently. I'm not saying cheaply, I'm saying take all of the contract, and the minimum talent exchange it takes. They're the fucking Royals, they traded Wil Myers for James Shields

More a (perhaps sloppily worded) tweet than a story. But the point remains that if he's as good a hitter as you're saying, to the point that his horrendous defense doesn't matter, not just you but some GMs are probably aware of it

So let's see where he ends up, and for what.

Shore wrote:The absolute minimum that I could. But I'd spend every dollar of that amount, whatever it is.

So you'd pay like $40M to get rid of Howard, on top of the prospect and salary cost of Butler?

But Byrd's $16M chaps your ass?

Yes, but Howard and Butler don't have to be connected. I'd get rid of Howard and play Ruf. Or Franco. And I thought the salary cost of Butler wasn't that much money?

Yes. I like premium talent. I hate investing dollars and PA in non-premium talent.

Do you really want to argue that Citi Field is a good hitters park now? Because that would sure be putting a lot of stock in those 1 year sample size stats you have been decrying all thread

And the greater point is that the home runs he hit averaged 412 feet last year so it's not like he bounced a bunch off the railings to explain his power surge