Productive Outs - Phillies Random Thoughts

by **Monkeyboy** » Sat May 11, 2013 17:48:03

and who ever said amaro should have no mistakes? All GMs make mistakes and I can't imagine anyone expecting anything different.

I don't expect perfection. The evidence for my position is taking the field for the Phillies 162 games this year. The starting pitching will be good enough to keep them respectable, and that will keep Ruben in town.

Who knows maybe the offense will get a few more guys going and they make a run at a WC.... baseball's a funny game you know.

by **mcare89** » Sat May 11, 2013 17:50:57

Monkeyboy wrote:No, I would have but thanks for telling me what I would do. Your arrogance is, shall we say, breathtaking. I also like how you've ignored me saying in several instances how Amaro isn't a bad GM when it comes to most things, but that he has a blind spot when it comes to offensive production. I guess it's easier to act like a non-mod and insult someone if you make up their position and tell them what they think. I do grasp that the best team doesn't always win the playoffs which is why I said all along (go ahead and check) that it makes no sense to send the farm for an aging pitcher (oswalt in this case) that will only give you a very marginally greater chance of winning because of the luck involved in winning. Do you grasp that?

The Pence deal was stupid, but I'd still do the Oswalt deal today. Happ's a spare part, Villar's a decent prospect, but still a big toolshed question mark. Gose is the real gem of that deal, but even he hasn't been able to crack the big club for a Blue Jays team that's trotting Colby Rasmus out to center field. Oswalt getting hurt in 2011 made that deal look worse in hindsight, but he was absolutely dominant down the stretch for them in 2010. And that's hardly "sending the farm." Gose was maybe our #4 or #5 prospect at that point, and Villar was barely cracking top 10s.

If they traded what they did for Pence for Oswalt, that's sending the farm. But if you're gonna get upset with sending prospects of that caliber for at the time clear-cut #1 starters, you're not gonna like much. Also, I went back and checked. Monkeyboy circa July 30, 2010:

Sorry for poopooing your genius, Ruben. Please make no offseason moves. Let someone else do it. Thanks.

It's great to have such a farm system to pull stuff like this off.

Phils are also benefitting from teams really having to worry about payroll when the Phils can push 150 million. A few years ago, it would have taken more for these starters, but teams are really wanting young cheap players to deal with the crappy economy. The big guns are coming cheap. Good for us.

by **Barry Jive** » Sat May 11, 2013 17:57:07

Ricky Bottalico was the Phillies' all-star in 1996. If you supposedly found something fun about that team you can sure as shit find something about this one

by **JFLNYC** » Sat May 11, 2013 17:58:34

Yes, Polanco sucked last year. In the last year of his contract. That's my point.

Ibanez not signing for less than 3 years is an urban legend, repeated so often it's now taken as truth.

In the 3 years of his contract, Blanton had an ERA+ of 85, 77 and 88 -- hardly worth making a 3-year commitment and, again, the opportunity cost of that "cost certainty" was having to trade Cliff Lee and, possibly, not being able to afford a replacement bat (Lance Berkman anyone?) for Werth in 2011 because they were stuck with Blanton's contract.

Yes, yes, yes, of course Rube's done good things and of course every GM makes mistakes. But, jeez, those facts don't give Rube some sort of cloak of immunity about mistakes he's made. And, I'm sorry, but Ryan Franklin at $3.25MM is just not in the same ballpark as Rube's deals at 10 times that much.

But while we're on the subject of the Cardinals, let's review some of their significant signings the last few years. In 2011, Lance Berkman for 1/8. Last year, Beltran for 2/26 and Furcal for 2/14. Let's also not forget getting Lohse for next-to-nothing after the Phils didn't re-sign him. Seeing a pattern here and a difference from the Phils? Not giving that extra year and money. So, the mistakes, when they happen, don't hurt as much and the Cards don't pay those opportunity costs that have been a hallmark of Rube's tenure.

by **dajafi** » Sat May 11, 2013 18:20:11

JFLNYC wrote:Yes, Polanco sucked last year. In the last year of his contract. That's my point.

Ibanez not signing for less than 3 years is an urban legend, repeated so often it's now taken as truth.

In the 3 years of his contract, Blanton had an ERA+ of 85, 77 and 88 -- hardly worth making a 3-year commitment and, again, the opportunity cost of that "cost certainty" was having to trade Cliff Lee and, possibly, not being able to afford a replacement bat (Lance Berkman anyone?) for Werth in 2011 because they were stuck with Blanton's contract.

Yes, yes, yes, of course Rube's done good things and of course every GM makes mistakes. But, jeez, those facts don't give Rube some sort of cloak of immunity about mistakes he's made. And, I'm sorry, but Ryan Franklin at $3.25MM is just not in the same ballpark as Rube's deals at 10 times that much.

But while we're on the subject of the Cardinals, let's review some of their significant signings the last few years. In 2011, Lance Berkman for 1/8. Last year, Beltran for 2/26 and Furcal for 2/14. Let's also not forget getting Lohse for next-to-nothing after the Phils didn't re-sign him. Seeing a pattern here and a difference from the Phils? Not giving that extra year and money. So, the mistakes, when they happen, don't hurt as much and the Cards don't pay those opportunity costs that have been a hallmark of Rube's tenure.

Nobody's saying they do. But the better stat for Blanton would be his ERA+ from the three years prior to that deal: 108, 90 (but 104 with the Phils), 104. He was going into his age 29 season. It was a reasonable deal, the same one (distributed differently) that St. Gillick gave Adam Eaton, and much more justifiable. He got hurt, and he still was less damaging to the Phils in any of those seasons than Franklin was to the Cardinals in 2011, when they got in on the last day of the season.

I thought I wrote pretty clearly that the Cardinals are a much better run organization than the Phillies, though I held up the Furcal deal as a probable misfire rather than a sharp move as you seem to think it is. But I agree with you about the blind spot for cost certainty, though what we can't know is whether that's Amaro's policy or that of his bosses.

by **mcare89** » Sat May 11, 2013 18:22:56

JFLNYC wrote:Yes, Polanco sucked last year. In the last year of his contract. That's my point.

Ibanez not signing for less than 3 years is an urban legend, repeated so often it's now taken as truth.

In the 3 years of his contract, Blanton had an ERA+ of 85, 77 and 88 -- hardly worth making a 3-year commitment and, again, the opportunity cost of that "cost certainty" was having to trade Cliff Lee and, possibly, not being able to afford a replacement bat (Lance Berkman anyone?) for Werth in 2011 because they were stuck with Blanton's contract.

Yes, yes, yes, of course Rube's done good things and of course every GM makes mistakes. But, jeez, those facts don't give Rube some sort of cloak of immunity about mistakes he's made. And, I'm sorry, but Ryan Franklin at $3.25MM is just not in the same ballpark as Rube's deals at 10 times that much.

But while we're on the subject of the Cardinals, let's review some of their significant signings the last few years. In 2011, Lance Berkman for 1/8. Last year, Beltran for 2/26 and Furcal for 2/14. Let's also not forget getting Lohse for next-to-nothing after the Phils didn't re-sign him. Seeing a pattern here and a difference from the Phils? Not giving that extra year and money. So, the mistakes, when they happen, don't hurt as much and the Cards don't pay those opportunity costs that have been a hallmark of Rube's tenure.

But the point is for every extra year that hasn't worked out (Ibanez, Polanco, Blanton), there's a cheap year that he's gotten because he gets players to sign below market extensions for the extra year (Werth, Madson, Chooch).

I don't think anybody's excusing Rube's big mistakes, which are the Howard contract and the Pence deal. If your point is "those deals would have been better if he hadn't given the extra year," you're right. But you have no way of proving that those guys would have signed here at all if not for that extra year.

by **usctrojans31** » Sat May 11, 2013 18:23:59

etched Chaos wrote:
usctrojans31 wrote:I wish the White Sox were a better team and competitng this year. We probably could have dumped Howard on them for Dunn, who while having another atrocious year, is at least a free agent after 2014.

The Adam Dunn who currently isn't even opsing over .600? Who is making the mendoza line look good?

The same Adam Dunn who is a free agent after next season? Even if he continues his abysmal season, there is still a $75 M cost savings between him and Howard. Worst case scenario, you have a $30 M bench man and start Darin Ruf.

by **etched Chaos** » Sat May 11, 2013 18:28:08

usctrojans31 wrote:
etched Chaos wrote:
usctrojans31 wrote:I wish the White Sox were a better team and competitng this year. We probably could have dumped Howard on them for Dunn, who while having another atrocious year, is at least a free agent after 2014.

The Adam Dunn who currently isn't even opsing over .600? Who is making the mendoza line look good?

The same Adam Dunn who is a free agent after next season? Even if he continues his abysmal season, there is still a $75 M cost savings between him and Howard. Worst case scenario, you have a $30 M bench man and start Darin Ruf.

Or you keep Ryan Howard and actually have someone who can still hit on your ball-club instead of replacing him with a sub 200 hitter to dump payroll. If we're going to dump payroll we might as well dump Howard for nothing, Adam Dunn is a waste of space right now.

by **JFLNYC** » Sat May 11, 2013 18:37:58

dajafi, I respect your opinions highly, so I'm not going to continue the argument. But I will say, as an example to illustrate my overall point, I'd rather have Galvis at short this year and Cuddyer in RF, with one more year left on his deal than Rollins at short with 2 more years left on his deal, Delmon in RF and Galvis on the bench. Given the team's need for a RH power bat, a shorter commitment and the skills of Glavis, IMO it's a better -- and shorter -- allocation of resources.

And, mccare, I likewise respect your point that there's "no way of proving that those guys would have signed here at all if not for that extra year," which is absolutely true. But the conclusion I draw from that fact may be different from yours: If Raul Ibanez or Polanco or Moyer or Blanton or even Rollins won't sign without the extra year, I wish them good luck and godspeed. If you need to go the extra year for an elite player like Lee or Halladay or Hamels, I'm all in. They're difference-makers. But for the non-elite guys I mentioned (at this point in his career, Rollins is borderline, at best), if they insist on an extra year, I walk away and keep my powder dry so as not to miss better opportunities.

daj, I do have to mention one more thing: I don't think I put words in your mouth to make my argument and I'd appreciate your not putting words in mine. I never said Furcal's deal was a "smart move." But I will say this -- and Galvis is the key: I'd have rather signed Furcal to a 2/14 deal, knowing I have Galvis, than Rollins to a 4/44 deal, even knowing Furcal's injury history. Again, shorter commitment, different allocation of resources and my powder is dry.

by **Monkeyboy** » Sat May 11, 2013 18:49:04

Barry Jive wrote:Ricky Bottalico was the Phillies' all-star in 1996. If you supposedly found something fun about that team you can sure as shit find something about this one

Ricky Bo was the greatest of them all. Repent.

I listed a few things I enjoy about this team. They just don't do many things well and that makes them very frustrating to watch. Frustrating enough that I don't stay up to 1-3am to watch the first part of the game. This is probably a healthier lifestyle anyway, but in the past I've always been one to choose baseball over sleep.

by **usctrojans31** » Sat May 11, 2013 18:49:43

etched Chaos wrote:Or you keep Ryan Howard and actually have someone who can still hit on your ball-club instead of replacing him with a sub 200 hitter to dump payroll. If we're going to dump payroll we might as well dump Howard for nothing, Adam Dunn is a waste of space right now.

How much money do you really want to eat? No one is taking on that contract without the Phillies eating at least half of it, and even that likely won't get it done. If you rule out last season as a do-over, he's still putting up a sub 2 WAR. Adam Dunn is awful, but his awfulness is much easier to swallow. Hell, you could bloody DFA him and STILL save money.

by **mcare89** » Sat May 11, 2013 19:01:23

JFLNYC wrote:And, mccare, I likewise respect your point that there's "no way of proving that those guys would have signed here at all if not for that extra year," which is absolutely true. But the conclusion I draw from that fact may be different from yours: If Raul Ibanez or Polanco or Moyer or Blanton or even Rollins won't sign without the extra year, I wish them good luck and godspeed. If you need to go the extra year for an elite player like Lee or Halladay or Hamels, I'm all in. They're difference-makers. But for the non-elite guys I mentioned (at this point in his career, Rollins is borderline, at best), if they insist on an extra year, I walk away and keep my powder dry so as not to miss better opportunities.

There's our difference there. For one, while there's frequently targets on the market that end up being a value, there's also frequently a situation where you have to settle for a subpar stopgap, or worse, surrendering assets for a position of need, and on a contender, that's a slippery slope. This applies more to Polanco than Ibanez, but still, Polanco was a good value for the first years of his contract, and they paid for it with the last year.

With a $180 million dollar payroll, offering these above-average guys extra years should be our free agent advantage. We should be able to swallow the extra few million if those extra years turn out to be lemons, and afford a better replacement. (Jenkins is a prime example of how that should be done.) The problem we have is that the Howard contract eats up that margin. It neutralizes that advantage because you already have a player that's overpaid $15-20 million, in addition to those bad extra years.

I'll castigate Amaro for the Howard contract, because that's the domino that makes the other moves shitty. I won't attack him for the extra years, because IMO, that's an advantage we should have and use being a high payroll team. The Cardinals have a $110 million payroll. They spend their money wisely, and they've had some hits, the same way we did in 07-08. We should be able to use that extra money to overcome those smaller mistakes.

by **etched Chaos** » Sat May 11, 2013 19:02:50

usctrojans31 wrote:
etched Chaos wrote:Or you keep Ryan Howard and actually have someone who can still hit on your ball-club instead of replacing him with a sub 200 hitter to dump payroll. If we're going to dump payroll we might as well dump Howard for nothing, Adam Dunn is a waste of space right now.

How much money do you really want to eat? No one is taking on that contract without the Phillies eating at least half of it, and even that likely won't get it done. If you rule out last season as a do-over, he's still putting up a sub 2 WAR. Adam Dunn is awful, but his awfulness is much easier to swallow. Hell, you could bloody DFA him and STILL save money.

Or how about and this is a novel idea, we don't swap Howard for the god-awful Dunn and suffer the contract instead of trying to offload him for a hitter who is historically bad right now and is 2 seasons removed from hitting .159 over 500 PA's. Adam Dunn's only benefit to the Phils would be to cut 45mill of Ryan's remaining contract. You still have to pay the man 30mill over the next two seasons and what do you get for that 30mill? Ben Revere type numbers from a 1Bman without the defensive or baserunning benefit. Or you could DFA him and be on the hook for 30mill anyway when nobody bothers to pick him up.

by **dajafi** » Sat May 11, 2013 19:04:53

JFLNYC wrote:dajafi, I respect your opinions highly, so I'm not going to continue the argument. But I will say, as an example to illustrate my overall point, I'd rather have Galvis at short this year and Cuddyer in RF, with one more year left on his deal than Rollins at short with 2 more years left on his deal, Delmon in RF and Galvis on the bench. Given the team's need for a RH power bat, a shorter commitment and the skills of Glavis, IMO it's a better -- and shorter -- allocation of resources.

And, mccare, I likewise respect your point that there's "no way of proving that those guys would have signed here at all if not for that extra year," which is absolutely true. But the conclusion I draw from that fact may be different from yours: If Raul Ibanez or Polanco or Moyer or Blanton or even Rollins won't sign without the extra year, I wish them good luck and godspeed. If you need to go the extra year for an elite player like Lee or Halladay or Hamels, I'm all in. They're difference-makers. But for the non-elite guys I mentioned (at this point in his career, Rollins is borderline, at best), if they insist on an extra year, I walk away and keep my powder dry so as not to miss better opportunities.

daj, I do have to mention one more thing: I don't think I put words in your mouth to make my argument and I'd appreciate your not putting words in mine. I never said Furcal's deal was a "smart move." But I will say this -- and Galvis is the key: I'd have rather signed Furcal to a 2/14 deal, knowing I have Galvis, than Rollins to a 4/44 deal, even knowing Furcal's injury history. Again, shorter commitment, different allocation of resources and my powder is dry.

Fair enough and no such thing was intended. I can't really disagree with your preference at this point; I'd like to see what Galvis can do playing every day, and if the season keeps going down the current dismal path I hope he gets the chance. Maybe M. Young will waive his no-trade, or Rollins will.

My recollection is that Cuddyer would have cost a pick. Furcal maybe as well, though he didn't for the Cards obviously. That does change the equation a little, if true, but I'm not sure. And I think Rollins originally wanted five or even six years; in that context, getting him for three plus an option looks better, though I take and agree with your point about shorter commitments to guys on the down slope.

by **Shore** » Sat May 11, 2013 19:28:17

dajafi wrote:But I also don't think there's a single GM who would have done things very differently, at least enough to overcome the aging of the core.

I disagree, in particular, with this point.

But there are too many ptkish posts in this thread, so lets leave it at that.

by **Doll Is Mine** » Sat May 11, 2013 19:28:21

Charlie continues to be all fun and jokes in his interviews. He's so checked out.

by **Bob Loblaw** » Sat May 11, 2013 20:29:08

We apparently signed Carlos Zambrano.

http://www.philliedelphia.com/2013/05/s ... llies.html

by **Napalm** » Sat May 11, 2013 20:40:07

Bob Loblaw wrote:We apparently signed Carlos Zambrano.

http://www.philliedelphia.com/2013/05/s ... llies.html

by **Ace Rothstein** » Sat May 11, 2013 20:42:32

Ruben Amaro has denied a report that the Phillies have signed Carlos Zambrano, calling it "ridiculously premature"

welp he is a Phillies

by **Napalm** » Sat May 11, 2013 20:44:06

"premature" sounds like theyre watching him throw. probably nothing even comes of it

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