Pagan's 31. We just saw his prime, ages 27-30, and it looked ok: .285 / .337 / .427. Certainly not a leadoff hitter, but above-average numbers for a dude in a pitcher's park (111 OPS+).

My biggest problems are:

1) He's not 27-30 for this next contract, he's 31-34. He's not likely to do better than that; he's likely to do a little worse.
2) A decent % of his value is derived from speed. Lots of triples, SB, good D in CF. He's 31, and has had some injury problems.
3) We just NON-TENDERED a good defender with a 110+ OPS over the last 2 years. Why give a very similar profile guy 4 years and a jazillion dollars?
4) .285/.337/.427 looks like a line from James Loney or Nyjer Morgan or David Murphy. Who suck.
5) .285/.336/.427 is the kind of line I would expect from a platoon of guys we patched together if we failed to acquire a big dog. Schierholz and Mayberry or Ruf. Roger Bernadina could put up that line, with a better OBP, and Nats are trying to replace him.
6) He smells like a Met.

1 and 2 are valid. As for the rest Pagan plays CF

Now that Shore is all worked up into a lather, it's a virutal certainty this is happening

Rube will sign him to a 4 year deal then Hamilton will sign for 3/75 in February for the Reds.

i wonder how interested the indians would be in a choo/perez deal? choo has one arb year left before hitting free agency. you have to assume the indians think he'll be on his way out of town with boras as his agent. his last four years he put up wRC+ of 134, 145, 105 and 131. war of 5.1, 6.1, 1.5 and 2.6 (he missed almost half of 2011). matts has him projected to get $7.9M in arbitration. perez was probably outspoken enough to get himself shipped out of town. i think he'd be a solid 8th inning guy. i started writing this before i saw matts projected him at $7.2M in arb. that's much too pricey for an eighth inning guy. maybe they could talk them into pestano instead. worley/brown/de fratus?

Choo has been the guy I've been hoping for since the end of the season.

dajafi wrote:Choo has been the guy I've been hoping for since the end of the season.

I've been pining for Choo since like 2009

WHO AM I SUPPOSED TO WANT THE PHILLIES TO GET I'M SO CONFUSED

Signing Pagan is such a lazy move.

Sorry if I dont jizz all over myself with joy about signing a 32 year old with wOBAs of .334, .306, and .334 the last three years.

That's why we should trade for Coco Crisp. Basically the same player with one year and $7MM left on his contract. He's older and more expensive than Denard Span, so he ought to be a cheaper get.

Just to follow on, the Phils are ~$21MM from the tax threshold. Let's assume Monty allows Rube to go over by $10MM, which gives Rube $31MM to play with.

It's a FA class filled with risks. The only risk I think is worth taking is Nick Swisher. He's consistently almost a 4 WAR player, good defender, walks a lot, will probably age OK over the next few years. He's probably going to get 6/100, which takes him through his age 37 season. That's more than you want to spend, but it's probably a better and cheaper risk than Hamilton. Six years down the road, Halladay, Lee, Howard, Rollins, etc., are all going to be off the payroll so, understanding that the last year or two on his contract may be wasted, I'd still do it because there's just not another quality, consistent hitter available (Hamilton notwithstanding).

OK, so you've spent ~$17MM AAV. Rather than overpay for Bourn, Pagan or Victorino, then you trade for Crisp with his 1/7 deal. Nicely, he's also got a 1/7.5 team option. You let Ruf and Brown battle it out for the LF spot.

That leaves you with ~$7MM. With that money you take a chance on a guy like Mike Adams as your setup guy. You're going to have a little payroll left over, which you save for the deadline or, if his price continues to drop, you sign Youkilis to a cheap one-year deal.

It's not a sexy off-season, but I can't think of a much better plan given who's out there and what the Phils have to spend.

i have no problem with giving Pagan 4 years, more concerned about the AAV. they need someone who can play CF. it's either him or Bourn.

Shore wrote:Pagan's 31. We just saw his prime, ages 27-30, and it looked ok: .285 / .337 / .427. Certainly not a leadoff hitter, but above-average numbers for a dude in a pitcher's park (111 OPS+).

My biggest problems are:

1) He's not 27-30 for this next contract, he's 31-34. He's not likely to do better than that; he's likely to do a little worse.
2) A decent % of his value is derived from speed. Lots of triples, SB, good D in CF. He's 31, and has had some injury problems.
3) We just NON-TENDERED a good defender with a 110+ OPS over the last 2 years. Why give a very similar profile guy 4 years and a jazillion dollars?
4) .285/.337/.427 looks like a line from James Loney or Nyjer Morgan or David Murphy. Who suck.
5) .285/.336/.427 is the kind of line I would expect from a platoon of guys we patched together if we failed to acquire a big dog. Schierholz and Mayberry or Ruf. Roger Bernadina could put up that line, with a better OBP, and Nats are trying to replace him.
6) He smells like a Met.

3. we just non-tendered a good RF defender who couldn't hack it in CF. we have plenty of corner OF, a couple of whom (Nix, Mayberry) play credible corner OF but couldn't hack it full-time in CF. they need a full-time CF. Pagan can be that guy.
4. a line from James Loney or David Murphy, who play 1b and a poor corner OF, suck. are you really comparing a plus defensive CF to those guys? also, i dunno where you grabbed these players from. neither Loney nor Morgan has slugged .427 since 2007.
5. seriously? Roger Bernadina's career line is .252/.320/.373. you're being absolutely ridiculous here.

Trent Steele wrote:Signing Pagan is such a lazy move.

what does this mean/what is a non-lazy move you'd suggest

Trent Steele wrote:Sorry if I dont jizz all over myself with joy about signing a 32 year old with wOBAs of .334, .306, and .334 the last three years.

well if it's all about pleasing Trent Steele's glistening nutsack i guess we should just trade for Mike Trout instead

JFLNYC wrote:That's why we should trade for Coco Crisp. Basically the same player with one year and $7MM left on his contract. He's older and more expensive than Denard Span, so he ought to be a cheaper get.

in all seriousness, has Crisp's name been mentioned as being on the block? i hadn't seen anything so your recent harping on him is weirding me out

Yes, it has, especially since the A's got Chris Young to play CF.

ah, i keep forgetting about that.

the Crisp thing is interesting but leaves you in the same spot next year. here's the current slate of 2014 FAs who can play CF per MLBTR:

Coco Crisp (34) - $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Rajai Davis (33)
Jacoby Ellsbury (30)
Carlos Gomez (28)
Curtis Granderson (33)
Franklin Gutierrez (31) - $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Tony Gwynn Jr. (31)
Chris Young (30) - $11MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

that's if none of those guys sign extensions. I'd guess Ellsbury and Granderson both get huge deals with Gomez coming in as your Pagan of the year. I'd also venture to guess you're not going to want to pay Coco Crisp $7.5MM for his age 34 season. what's the plan?

How can anyone not want this guy: