Random Phillies Stuff Cont.

by **Grotewold** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 14:35:40

Matt Gelb says it's been raining in Florida all day and "doesn't look good for baseball," but that could just be his standard cuntiness

by **smitty** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 14:36:55

Here's a pitch Kendrick should work on. It's after the Wendy's commercial:

http://ithappenedforreal.msn.com/?secti ... >1=25075

by **PTOITWCFTPP** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 14:49:55

Now I want a Frosty

by **bleh** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 16:14:10

mozartpc27 wrote:
CrashburnAlley wrote:http://www.thegoodphight.com/2008/9/16/615450/the-most-useless-stat-team

Interesting, and their list gets at a point I was trying (and failing) to articulate earlier: since most games the team losses aren't shut outs (except for this year, ha ha), if the team is 30-6 in games when Rollins scores a run this year, then they must have a mediocre record for somebody if you look at the same stat. In 2008, it was Jayson Werth (not bad, at 28-22, just not eye-popping or notable either). I wonder who it is this year? In any event, it seems Rollins is never that guy, year in and year out.

I am perfectly happy/prepared to accept that this is merely a coincidence, however.

How is 28-22 mediocre? And why does someone "have" to have a mediocre record when they score a run? What if you looked at every starting pitcher in their games where they only gave up 2 runs. Would someone HAVE to have a mediocre record? The mediocre record part comes in when Rollins doesn't score a run and they are around .500.

by **TenuredVulture** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 16:14:14

I know we're not supposed to believe in intangibles or stuff like that, but there does seem to be something tangible if not statistically measurable about the awesomeness of the Phillies in September. Call it confidence, call it swagger, call it Joe Morgan.

by **smitty** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 16:26:01

TenuredVulture wrote:I know we're not supposed to believe in intangibles or stuff like that, but there does seem to be something tangible if not statistically measurable about the awesomeness of the Phillies in September. Call it confidence, call it swagger, call it Joe Morgan.

This year it's called starting pitching. Did you now Joe Blanton hasn't lost a game since July 21st? And the Phils have won 8 of his last ten starts?

And Blanton is their 4th best starter. Just amazing what this team does every year.

by **Barry Jive** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 16:37:01

Blanton didn't lose a game in 2008 after he came here. I don't know if there's empirical evidence to back it up, but some guys seem to be second-half guys more than others. We know Ibanez is day and night from month-to-month, but Howard is obviously a late-season guy, and Rollins and Ruiz have had huge late-season tears relative to their career performance in recent years. Madson seems to always get better as the season goes along. There are other guys, I'm sure. Brett Myers might have been one. Moyer has been in a couple years.

I dunno how much of that is individual and how much is coaching, but maybe there's another market inefficiency. Maybe that's why the team's done so well in the playoffs the past two years.

by **Rococo4** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 16:43:56

where can i find the tmac bingo card.....i want to play tonight

by **smitty** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 17:00:42

Blanton didn't lose a game in 2008 after he came here. I don't know if there's empirical evidence to back it up, but some guys seem to be second-half guys more than others.

Blanton is a second half guy for whatever reasons. 35-41, 4.63 vs. 35-19, 3.92.

Even more so with the Phils:

'08 = 5-12, 4.96 (pitcher's park in Oakland) -- 4-0, 4.20.

'09 = 6-4, 4.44 -- 6-4, 3.62.

10 = 3-5, 6.41 -- 4-1, 3.50.

by **Barry Jive** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 17:44:11

I mean, the idea of a "second-half player" in general. I don't know much theory behind statistics, so I don't know what qualifies as a statistically significant sample in this case. But just from basic observation, it seems some guys are consistently better later than earlier.

And I don't know if it'd be related, but from what I recall PECOTA's projections tend to favor players who were better in the second half of the previous season. So I'd guess it also has some kind of predictive power.

by **lethal** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 17:53:48

Blanton is the anti-Haren

by **SK790** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 18:43:16

Grotewold wrote:Matt Gelb says it's been raining in Florida all day and "doesn't look good for baseball," but that could just be his standard cuntiness

The latter.

Hey, Gelb, it's Florida in the summer, thunderstorms happen.

by **TenuredVulture** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 22:39:56

I love the fear thread.

by **joe table** » Tue Sep 14, 2010 23:31:52

ek wrote:rollins told salisbury "the book" says the injury is about 3 weeks but he thinks he'll be back before then

Would be last Nats game before final Braves series if no setback

by **FTN** » Wed Sep 15, 2010 00:28:36

i honestly would rather just have valdez at 100% than Rollins screwing with the team any more than he already has. just let him rest and come back for the playoffs.

by **FTN** » Wed Sep 15, 2010 01:03:12

Cole Hamels allowed a first-inning run, ending his scoreless streak at 25 IP. He struck out a season-high 13 batters in 6 2/3 IP, becoming the first Phillies pitcher with 13 K's in 20 or less outs since 1900.

The Phillies have won 12 of their past 13 series, and ace Roy Halladay will help them try for a three-game sweep Wednesday.
The Phils have won 16 of their past 19 road games.

16-3 in their last 19 road games

jesus

by **Eem** » Wed Sep 15, 2010 01:09:09

FTN wrote:16-3 in their last 19 road games

jesus

CLIFF LEE

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Wed Sep 15, 2010 06:52:12

Since August 1st, Phillies starters have gotten the decision in 34 of the 42 games played. They are 22-12. Of the 12 losses, 5 are Kendrick's. Take out Kendrick's starts, and Worley's one, and Halladay/Oswalt/Hamels/Blanton are 19-6 since August 1st. Of the 6, two are bullshit 1-0 losses for Hamels. Hamels also lost a 5-2 decision to the Giants. The other 3 losses belong to Halladay (2) and Blanton (1).

I know wins/losses are kinda dumb stats for pitchers, but having your starters get decisions that regularly, and having the non-awful ones go 19-6 (which could very easily be 21-4, if the Phils would have scored for Hamels at all), is awfully impressive.

And since July 21st, Joe Blanton is 4-1 with an ERA of 3.41 (52 Ks and 15BBs in that period, but getting a bit unlucky with BABIP at .348 since August 1st). You get that out of your fourth starter and things will go awfully well...

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Wed Sep 15, 2010 06:52:56

FTN wrote:i honestly would rather just have valdez at 100% than Rollins screwing with the team any more than he already has. just let him rest and come back for the playoffs.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Wed Sep 15, 2010 08:09:21

Ross Gload hasn't started a game since August 18th. That should probably change.

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