Hot Stove 2009 Discussion Here

by **dajafi** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:23:55

FTN wrote:
dajafi wrote:Nervousness about tangling with Ken Williams again aside... I wonder what it would take for the Phils to get Jermaine Dye.

(Other than Abreu, I mean.)

Dye scares the hell out of me.

How come? He's a righty power hitter, signed cheaply for a year with a mutual option, more athletic than Burrell. I think he'd be a great fit in our lineup.

by **Mountainphan** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:27:59

kruker wrote:Sadly, I'll take Eaton for one more year instead of Byrnes for 2 @ 11 each. Even assuming that Charlie is the messiah, Byrnes has never been anything other than average at his best.

The dude is one of the best outfield divers ever.

by **FTN** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:28:37

dajafi wrote:
FTN wrote:
dajafi wrote:Nervousness about tangling with Ken Williams again aside... I wonder what it would take for the Phils to get Jermaine Dye.

(Other than Abreu, I mean.)

Dye scares the hell out of me.

How come? He's a righty power hitter, signed cheaply for a year with a mutual option, more athletic than Burrell. I think he'd be a great fit in our lineup.

his performance has been all over the map for the last 5 years

2008: .292/.344/.541
2007: .254/.317/.486
2006: .315/.385/.622
2005: .274/.333/.512
2004: .265/.329/.464

Dye is also a butcher in RF. -7 raw, -17 enhanced according to Dewan. -16, -41 enhanced in 2007

by **kruker** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:30:27

I'm not going to start a new thread for this, but the Bill James 2009 projections are now on FanGraphs.

by **kruker** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:39:38

Give me Swisher over Dye.

Swisher has 3 years and 21.05 left on his contract
Dye has 1 year 11.5 with a mutual option for 12 or a 1 million buyout.

Dye is 6 years older. Their average RC/27 for their careers is almost identical. The 2009 Bill James projections have them at about the same production level. Production levels being equal, I'd much rather have the younger player. On top of that Swisher is among the most useful players in the game: a switch hitter who hits from both sides of the plate and someone who can play 4 defensive positions.

For further evidence for Swisher, please check out the "Hotties" thread.

by **kruker** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:41:30

lethal wrote:
kruker wrote:Sadly, I'll take Eaton for one more year instead of Byrnes for 2 @ 11 each. Even assuming that Charlie is the messiah, Byrnes has never been anything other than average at his best. I don't think it's a good idea to pay an average player 11 million.

How about Eaton and Jenkins for Byrnes? That's 14M in 09 for 11 in 09 and 11 in 10. Figure the budget FA signing LF in 10 would otherwise make at least 5M, then you more or less break even.

Wouldn't you rather just be done with these bad contracts after this season? I think there's a better chance of Jenkins outproducing Byrnes next season anyway, so I'd rather free up the 14M after this season.

by **Bakestar** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:41:55

kruker wrote:Give me Swisher over Dye.

Swisher has 3 years and 21.05 left on his contract
Dye has 1 year 11.5 with a mutual option for 12 or a 1 million buyout.

Dye is 6 years older. Their average RC/27 for their careers is almost identical. The 2009 Bill James projections have them at about the same production level. Production levels being equal, I'd much rather have the younger player. On top of that Swisher is among the most useful players in the game: a switch hitter who hits from both sides of the plate and someone who can play 4 defensive positions.

For further evidence for Swisher, please check out the "Hotties" thread.

They were mediocre at best. Burrell's imminent departure is definitely going to be a drag on this franchise's tail-pulling abilities.

by **Stay_Disappointed** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:42:28

Wolf told KRIV-TV in Houston last night that he's flattered by the Astros' efforts, but he plans to test the market. His main goal is playing for a winning team, and he says his urge to play on the West Coast is overstated. Astros GM Ed Wade says he'll look at alternatives starting Friday.

funny how things turn out

by **jamiethekiller** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:42:48

Kalas

PAT BURRELL, WE CALL HIM BAIT

by **Bakestar** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:44:34

Warszawa wrote:
Wolf told KRIV-TV in Houston last night that he's flattered by the Astros' efforts, but he plans to test the market. His main goal is playing for a winning team, and he says his urge to play on the West Coast is overstated. Astros GM Ed Wade says he'll look at alternatives starting Friday.

funny how things turn out

I know this isn't what you're getting at by posting this, but I really hope the Phils don't make an offer to Wolf for nostalgia's sake, he's pretty much the last thing we want to get tied to right now.

by **dajafi** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:46:39

kruker wrote:Give me Swisher over Dye.

Swisher has 3 years and 21.05 left on his contract
Dye has 1 year 11.5 with a mutual option for 12 or a 1 million buyout.

Dye is 6 years older. Their average RC/27 for their careers is almost identical. The 2009 Bill James projections have them at about the same production level. Production levels being equal, I'd much rather have the younger player. On top of that Swisher is among the most useful players in the game: a switch hitter who hits from both sides of the plate and someone who can play 4 defensive positions.

For further evidence for Swisher, please check out the "Hotties" thread.

I'd probably prefer Swisher on balance (and yeah, his scalding hot gf haunts my dreams). His Swiss Army knife defensive utility is a big plus, as is the cost certainty. But is he even available? And would he actually cost more than Dye given relative youth and expense? I know he's coming off a down year and it's always great to buy low, but Williams is probably too smart to sell low unless something really great is coming back.

by **kruker** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:49:01

There was a rumor about a week or so ago that said Swisher was available.

by **FTN** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:49:16

But Ozzie clearly hates Swisher. And I think Williams realizes that at some point, he has to cut his losses. Hes not gonna fire Oz, so that makes me believe Swisher can be had. I'd move Carrasco in a deal for Swisher.

by **kruker** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:50:22

8:43pm: Ken Davidoff says the Yankees had "extremely preliminary" talks with the Sox regarding Swisher. Something to keep an eye on if the Yanks don't sign Mark Teixeira. Additionally, Davidoff says the White Sox are not anxious to unload Vazquez. 9:42am: According to Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune, the White Sox are aggressively shopping Javier Vazquez and Nick Swisher.

by **jamiethekiller** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:50:50

i'd give up quality to get swisher.

any combo(2) of the following: happ/carrasco/golson.

by **dajafi** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:51:40

FTN wrote:I'd move Carrasco in a deal for Swisher.

I'm trying to reconcile myself to the likelihood that either Carrasco or Marson will be dealt this winter.

by **phatj** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 13:57:35

dajafi wrote:
FTN wrote:I'd move Carrasco in a deal for Swisher.

I'm trying to reconcile myself to the likelihood that either Carrasco or Marson will be dealt this winter.

I can deal with losing either or both of them. What I'm scared of is that the Phillies will deal both of them in order to fill the hole left by Pat Burrell departing, and fail to actually improve performance or save money by doing so.

by **Brantt** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 14:11:05

ek wrote:some pantload caller on WIP just came up with this brilliant trade idea. Romero and Dobbs to the Mets for Wright. bahaha

Actually, it was Romero and "Feliz or Dobbs."

by **FTN** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 14:11:44

...but Dobbs is our best pinch hitter

by **Woody** » Thu Nov 13, 2008 14:24:01

Romero and Feliz might get it done, actually...

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