steven snell wrote:Brad Penny now a free agent. Dodgers declined option.

Another buy low candidate.

Another Phillie name with local ties: Alameda’s Jimmy Rollins. There have been rumors that Philadelphia will listen to offers for the 2007 MVP. Even if true, the price would be prohibitively high. He’d look great in a Giants uniform, but I don’t see him being a realistic target for them.

doubtful, but slightly intriguing

kruker wrote:

steven snell wrote:Brad Penny now a free agent. Dodgers declined option.

Another buy low candidate.

My Favorite. He could sign a 3M one year deal and try and prove he is worth a big contract.

The guy is an ace that needs to prove he can get through a season again. He is only 30. He struggled last year but has all the talent in the world.

Good risk/reward potential.

WilliamC wrote:

kruker wrote:

steven snell wrote:Brad Penny now a free agent. Dodgers declined option.

Another buy low candidate.

My Favorite. He could sign a 3M one year deal and try and prove he is worth a big contract.

The guy is an ace that needs to prove he can get through a season again. He is only 30. He struggled last year but has all the talent in the world.

Good risk/reward potential.

I've always liked Penny too. (And only sort of because I was once told I look like him.) But I also had this same feeling about Matt Clement. Sometimes guys like these just don't come back; all the early wear and tear catches up with them and ends their careers sooner than anyone would expect. Or if the injuries don't finish them, they change the pitching style so much that the guy spends his last bit of service time getting clobbered--think of Matt Morris or Mark Mulder.

So I'd love to see them kick the tires and try to get a sense of his health prospects going forward. Maybe a deal like what they gave Benson: a few million (more?) guaranteed if he makes the roster. But I'd temper my expectations as well, because he might just be done.

In '07, Penny threw 208 innings, was an allstar, and 3rd in Cy Young.

I don't think he'll be looking for a make-good deal. If he is, sign me up.

The Phillies control setup man Ryan Madson through 2009, but he's represented by Scott Boras. Boras compared Madson to Mariano Rivera circa 1996, so don't look for an affordable long-term deal.

mlbtr.

So do you move him while his value is red hot or hold onto him for another year, offer him arb and take the picks? I think if you can get a top 100 prospect+ then you've got to consider the deal. Maybe something like a top 100 pitcher and a mid-range prospect or two and you move Madson, save the cash on him this year and the money of signing and developing a first rounder and a supplemental pick. He's obviously going to be difficult to replace, but if the goal is to keep this team competitive over the long run, he's the safest person to move for youth.

kruker wrote:So do you move him while his value is red hot or hold onto him for another year, offer him arb and take the picks?

The latter, I think. The "8th inning guy" is obviously key for Charlie, and I doubt you can replace Madson for less money.

at the risk of sounding negadelphian, shouldn't we expect to see some sort of regression to what we used to see from madson? prior to this year, there were lots of times where i'd cringe seeing him come into a ballgame. i say sell high

my cousin mose wrote:at the risk of sounding negadelphian, shouldn't we expect to see some sort of regression to what we used to see from madson? prior to this year, there were lots of times where i'd cringe seeing him come into a ballgame. i say sell high

People were saying the same thing about Romero last year, though. I'm optimistic that Madson improved and can keep it going.

Madson showed a measurable improvement in all the important metrics, particularly K/9 and K/BB. Coupled with his increased velocity, it's very plausible that Madson could hold onto a lot of the gains he made in late 2008.

my cousin mose wrote:at the risk of sounding negadelphian, shouldn't we expect to see some sort of regression to what we used to see from madson? prior to this year, there were lots of times where i'd cringe seeing him come into a ballgame. i say sell high

As a reliever he's been exceptional 3 out of his 4 years and above average in the other year (106 ERA+). The blemish on his career is the year he started 17 games and struggled. There isn't much regression to be had.

More importantly, I think I'm in the "Keep Madson and make another run in 2009" camp, at the risk of letting him walk after next season for draft pick(s).

I lean towards keeping him and then going after the picks, but I think if you can get a potential starter or position player for him you've got to consider the deal. I like us as a match with the Indians for him (they are apparently in on Brian Fuentes).

Hypothetically (I've got no idea if this is going over the top on Ryan's value), if you got offered Chuck Lofgren and Wes Hodges, would you make the deal? Hodges looks like a legit 3b prospect and Lofgren has a killer arm, but struggled this season. I'm not so sure that I wouldn't make that deal and then try to catch lighting in a bottle during spring training.

The organization is really playing with house money for the next couple of years, the goodwill from the Championship will resonate. I don't think they need to do any "go-for-broke" risky moves, for better or for worse. I can't see them trading Madson unless they're 10+ games out at or around the trading deadline.

Bakestar wrote:I can't see them trading Madson unless they're 10+ games out at or around the trading deadline.

That possibility, though hopefully unlikely, is another argument for keeping him. We could make a killing.

Trading him now would basically limit you to deep-pocket clubs not fearful of Boras.

Grotewold wrote:

Bakestar wrote:I can't see them trading Madson unless they're 10+ games out at or around the trading deadline.

That possibility, though hopefully unlikely, is another argument for keeping him. We could make a killing.

Trading him now would basically limit you to deep-pocket clubs not fearful of Boras.

Bingo. Remember what's on every contender's trade deadline wishlist? BULLPEN HELP.

Bakestar wrote:The organization is really playing with house money for the next couple of years, the goodwill from the Championship will resonate. I don't think they need to do any "go-for-broke" risky moves, for better or for worse. I can't see them trading Madson unless they're 10+ games out at or around the trading deadline.

But I think the house money/goodwill thing lets them make some bold moves that they'd be scared to make otherwise, like getting some youth for Madson or Howard. If you keep Madson and you're still in the race at the trading deadline, they can't trade him for "PR reasons," even if the deal is a great one.

He'll be part of our David Wright acquisition package

Matt Holliday news:

One source mentioned a potential three-way deal that would send outfielder Hideki Matsui from the New York Yankees to the Seattle Mariners for a pitching prospect, perhaps Ryan Rowland-Smith. The Yankees would package the prospect with second baseman Robinson Cano and another young player to the Rockies for Holliday.

That's from baseballmusings.

Buster Olney says the Rockies are very motivated to move Matt Holliday. Olney wonders if the Rox might end up taking a bit less than expected for him. Troy Renck says various execs see the A's and Phillies as the most likely matches for Holliday. The Rays are another possibility.

That's from mlbtr.

I hope the Phillies take a look at Coco Crisp.

Covelli Crisp of
3 years/$15.5M (2007-09), plus 2010 club option

* 3 years/$15.5M (2007-09), plus 2010 club option
o signed extension with Boston 4/06
o $1M signing bonus
o 07:$3.5M, 08:$4.75M, 09:$5.75M, 10:$8M club option ($0.5M buyout)

Hes a switch hitter. He just turned 29. He's one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. The Red Sox have indicated Ellsbury is going to start in CF this year. With Manny gone and Bay in LF, Crisp doesn't have a regular place to play. His contract is very affordable. He's not a star, but did post a .344 OB% last season, his best mark since 2005. We know that players coming into Philly tend to improve a bit in the OB% department, and moving to the "easier league" will give him a bump. His splits last year were odd. He hit for a better average against LHP (.295) and for more power (.474 slug) but had only a .317 OB%. Against RHP he posted a higher OB% (.353) but slugged only .383.

Boston's biggest want is catching. Its extremely unlikely we'd deal Ruiz, but if you believe in Marson, now might be the time. I doubt they'd be interested in Jaramillo, they have a similar guy in George Kottaras.

Considering we're going to be up against it payroll wise, a guy like Crisp would be a nice fit. I'd play him in CF, Victorino in RF and Wertz in LF. And because he can switch hit, he gives some lineup flexibility. It would be nice to have a power bat in the OF, but his defense tends to offset that loss somewhat.