Phillies vs Dodgers: NLCS Discussion

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 16:27:59

I bet his face was beet red for three days.

by **BuddyGroom** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 16:42:50

Phan In Phlorida wrote:
Warszawa wrote:[url=http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/10/08/bp.nlcs/index.html?eref=si_topstories]NLCS Preview: Dodgers-Phillies By Jay Jaffe, Baseball Prospectus
[/url]

SS-S Jimmy Rollins (43.4)
RF-R Jayson Werth (30.4)
2B-L Chase Utley (62.3)
1B-L Ryan Howard (35.2)
LF-R Pat Burrell (33.4)
CF-S Shane Victorino (33.4)
3B-R Pedro Feliz (0.1)
C-R Carlos Ruiz (-7.0)

Jeebuz, that's quite a VORP dropoff with the last two.

I hope a somewhat ignorant question will be tolerated here. Does VORP take into account the specific outfield position or group all outfielders together? If it's the latter, how many people here would have guessed Victorino and Burrell would have the same number?

Even if, as I suspect, Victorino's VORP is specific to center fielders, I think that number is impressive. And suggests that he maybe should see a bit more love around here. It's not so much that he gets a lot of criticism but more than whenever potential trades are thrown about, he tends to get thrown in almost as casually as Greg Golson.

Also, I have to think VORP underestimates the value of defense if Ruiz is a minus player. Yes, he was wretched offensively this year, despite picking up a bit over the last six weeks or so. But catcher just isn't a very strong offensive position around the game right now, and I have to believe Ruiz is in the upper-third defensively.

by **Barry Jive** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 16:53:04

VORP does account for specific outfield position, but even among centerfielders, Victorino was 7th in the majors this season and 3rd in the NL (Beltran, McLouth).

Ruiz is so bad at the plate that his defense can't come close to saving him. For comparison's sake, Coste's VORP was 8.1 this season, and he was 21st among major league catchers. Ruiz wasn't even in the top 30.

by **Trent Steele** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 17:11:42

ek wrote:lineup

Rollins, ss
Victorino, cf
Utley, 2b
Howard, 1b
Burrell, lf
Werth, rf
Feliz, 3b
Ruiz, c
Hamels, p

Hmm. Would have liked to seen Dobbs get the start even though his numbers stink against Lowe.

by **Trent Steele** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 17:28:29

I feel a dominating performance coming tonight from Cole.

4-2 Phils.

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 17:30:54

ek wrote:SS Rafael Furcal
RF Andre Ethier
LF Manny Ramirez
C Russell Martin
1B James Loney
CF Matt Kemp
3B Casey Blake
2B Blake DeWitt
RHP Derek Lowe

Woody Paige said on ESPN that Furcal will be the NLCS MVP.

And some schmuck on ESPN just called Philadelphia "Boo Town".

by **LongDrive** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 17:31:32

by **phdave** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 17:32:23

I'M SO EXCITED I'M LISTENING TO HOWARD ESKIN!

by **drsmooth** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 17:35:29

Trent Steele wrote:Hmm. Would have liked to seen Dobbs get the start even though his numbers stink against Lowe.

what do you have against the most exciting play in the game - 1st-pitch DP GOs?

by **Trent Steele** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 17:39:09

I need to avoid all of the pre-game crap. I can't take it. I'll throw my computer through the TV. Game gets turned on at 8:19.

by **CFP** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 17:45:25

Trent Steele wrote:I need to avoid all of the pre-game crap. I can't take it. I'll throw my computer through the TV. Game gets turned on at 8:19.

But Sarge is throwing out the first pitch at 8:14!

by **CrashburnAlley** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 18:03:06

BuddyGroom wrote:I hope a somewhat ignorant question will be tolerated here. Does VORP take into account the specific outfield position or group all outfielders together? If it's the latter, how many people here would have guessed Victorino and Burrell would have the same number?

I don't know 100%, but I'm pretty sure it discriminates between LF, CF, and RF.

BuddyGroom wrote:Also, I have to think VORP underestimates the value of defense if Ruiz is a minus player.

VORP doesn't factor in defense at all.

Ruiz hasn't been good behind the plate -- if he had enough defensive innings to qualify, his CS% would rank dead last in the NL.

by **phdave** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 18:18:35

phdave wrote:I'M SO EXCITED I'M LISTENING TO HOWARD ESKIN!

This just in...numbers lie.

by **ReadingPhilly** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 18:22:45

Ryan Madson, who can see the playoff excitement right in his own front yard: "People are driving by, honking at my house. I didn't even know they knew I lived there. Now I really don't want to screw up. They'll burn my house down."

by **karn** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 18:25:33

by **karn** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 18:26:05

But seriously Madson...you best keeps up that gooden work

by **VFB** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 19:17:18

Phan In Phlorida wrote:Woody Paige said on ESPN that Furcal will be the NLCS MVP.

is that a thing?

by **Monkeyboy** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 19:29:25

I'm disappointed that Manuel seemed to realize that Dobbs was the better option at 3B down the stretch, but has abondoned it during the playoffs. If it was the best option during the last few weeks of the season, why wouldn't it be the best option now? We still have Stairs and Jenkins as lefty PHers.

by **swishnicholson** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 19:47:07

Monkeyboy wrote:I'm disappointed that Manuel seemed to realize that Dobbs was the better option at 3B down the stretch, but has abondoned it during the playoffs. If it was the best option during the last few weeks of the season, why wouldn't it be the best option now? We still have Stairs and Jenkins as lefty PHers.

Pitching and defense win in the playoffs, everyone knows that.

Until you realize that you're not scoring any runs.

by **Monkeyboy** » Thu Oct 09, 2008 20:04:33

swishnicholson wrote:
Monkeyboy wrote:I'm disappointed that Manuel seemed to realize that Dobbs was the better option at 3B down the stretch, but has abondoned it during the playoffs. If it was the best option during the last few weeks of the season, why wouldn't it be the best option now? We still have Stairs and Jenkins as lefty PHers.

Pitching and defense win in the playoffs, everyone knows that.

Until you realize that you're not scoring any runs.

I'm worried about Lowe throwing that sinker on the outer part of the plate and Ruiz and Feliz pulling it to the shortstop for tailor-made DPs. I'm hoping they don't kill any rallies because we not get many chances. That's my pessimistic side. The optimistic side says Lowe will get the ball up tonight and get shelled.

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Phillies vs Dodgers: NLCS Discussion