FOX NEWS POLL
FL: Biden 49, Trump 40
GA: Biden 47, Trump 45
NC: Biden 47, Trump 45
TX: Biden 45, Trump 44

close you say

CalvinBall wrote:FOX NEWS POLL
FL: Biden 49, Trump 40
GA: Biden 47, Trump 45
NC: Biden 47, Trump 45
TX: Biden 45, Trump 44

If these states have a legit shot of going to Biden, I wonder if Senate races are actually in play.

Meaning will Rs hold their nose and vote Biden, but still vote R down ballot, or does it go.blue based on turnout and Senate seats flip?

so I was looking at the crosstabs for that NY Times poll (i know, i know, don't fall in love with cross tabs) and the very unfavorable for Trump in PA is 47%. that's ridiculously high. his only real plan would be to depress turnout.

Biden's very unfavorable is 32% in PA.

I checked out some polls around the same time (somewhat outliers due to the timing of when the Clinton/Sanders fallout was at its highest but there were 15% of people not pledged to Sanders or Clinton at the time. His margin for error is just going to get smaller and smaller the longer it goes with those unfavorables and his opponent chugging along just fine. People don't seem to love Biden but they'll take him.

people misremember 2016. Outside of one outlier NBC poll in the summer and around when the Hollywood tape dropped it wasn't a romp for Clinton in PA. There was that one F&M poll that come out a month before the election that ended up having a bad sample and was before the Comey tape and the full out assault by the Trump campaign. He's largely fixed his methodology since. And Biden just doesn't have the unfavorables that Clinton does. I assign some of that to sexism, some of that to her being a Clinton and all that goes with that, and some of that being the Obama glow on Biden.


one worry in general is the lack of voter registration and the usual turnout apparatus. the new turnout is definitely the mail in ballots. we almost won a race on a six week push of that alone.

PA appears to be acting more like it did pre-2016. Democrats won most statewide races. I guess it'll all come down to turnout in Waukesha County.

CalvinBall wrote:FOX NEWS POLL
FL: Biden 49, Trump 40
GA: Biden 47, Trump 45
NC: Biden 47, Trump 45
TX: Biden 45, Trump 44

Texas has managed to stay red thanks to suburban voters in the big metro areas. The realities of Covid-19 in those areas is going to hurt Trump. Maybe a lot.

TomatoPie wrote:

pacino wrote:Tom Cotton is really blowing that dog whistle while opposing DC statehood.

Read on Twitter that we should get ready to transition from #NeverTrump to #NeverCotton.

It may be fortunate that the last gasp of white racists holding power through the GOP was with someone as comically incompetent as Trump. Cotton could do 10x the damage.

The future of America is dependent, thankfully, on changing demographics that will make the old racists less and less influential.

I might have mentioned I've met Tom Cotton a few times. It's really hard to imagine him having any political success beyond Arkansas. He has to be the least charismatic elected official I've ever met (and I've met Jim Florio) and he's never really been challenged in an election by a viable opponent. Within Arkansas, he's entirely an establishment candidate.

CalvinBall wrote:FOX NEWS POLL
FL: Biden 49, Trump 40
GA: Biden 47, Trump 45
NC: Biden 47, Trump 45
TX: Biden 45, Trump 44

Best thing about this, is that this would be "gravy" for Biden to pick off any of these...it's always like Charlie Brown and the football when it comes to Georgia or Arizona for the Dems, but this may be the year.

I really think Kelly will crush the unpopular McSalley there for the Senate...that may help Biden.

I don't think there is anyway Biden is up by nine in Florida...that state is always within 3 percent it seems....

All Biden has to do is win Michigan, Wisconsin and PA and ballgame over.

I'm happy Biden is winning those states, but a win in any of them probably mean the race is already over. I don't think anyone will be glued to their seats looking at NC results unless it's to rub it in.

I guess it could also affect down the ballot races, so maybe I should shut up.

Monkeyboy wrote:I don't think anyone will be glued to their seats looking at NC results unless it's to rub it in.

If it comes to that, that’s exactly what I’ll be doing!

JFLNYC wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:I don't think anyone will be glued to their seats looking at NC results unless it's to rub it in.

If it comes to that, that’s exactly what I’ll be doing!

come to think of it, I will too.

What's going to be aggravating is more states than ever won't be called that night due to mail-in voting...

pacino wrote:so I was looking at the crosstabs for that NY Times poll (i know, i know, don't fall in love with cross tabs) and the very unfavorable for Trump in PA is 47%. that's ridiculously high. his only real plan would be to depress turnout.

Biden's very unfavorable is 32% in PA.

I checked out some polls around the same time (somewhat outliers due to the timing of when the Clinton/Sanders fallout was at its highest but there were 15% of people not pledged to Sanders or Clinton at the time. His margin for error is just going to get smaller and smaller the longer it goes with those unfavorables and his opponent chugging along just fine. People don't seem to love Biden but they'll take him.

people misremember 2016. Outside of one outlier NBC poll in the summer and around when the Hollywood tape dropped it wasn't a romp for Clinton in PA. There was that one F&M poll that come out a month before the election that ended up having a bad sample and was before the Comey tape and the full out assault by the Trump campaign. He's largely fixed his methodology since. And Biden just doesn't have the unfavorables that Clinton does. I assign some of that to sexism, some of that to her being a Clinton and all that goes with that, and some of that being the Obama glow on Biden.


one worry in general is the lack of voter registration and the usual turnout apparatus. the new turnout is definitely the mail in ballots. we almost won a race on a six week push of that alone.

PA appears to be acting more like it did pre-2016. Democrats won most statewide races. I guess it'll all come down to turnout in Waukesha County.

Also, Biden is a son of NEPA who would presumably carry Luzerne County (IIRC one of the more important Obama/Trump counties) and presumably has more carry in SEPA than Hillary given the proximity to Delaware and his HQ being in Philly.

Isn't Scranton in Lakawana County? I think Trump won that big last time but Biden performed well there in the primary...that could be the difference in PA going to Biden right there..

Here's the transcript of Trump's response when he was asked what are his top priorities for a second term.

lethal wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:New York Times/Siena State Polls

Arizona: Biden 48%, Trump 41%

Florida: Biden 47%, Trump 41%

Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%

North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 40%

Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 40%

Wisconsin: Biden 49%, Trump 38%

See you guys are getting me all excited so that I must keep reminding myself that the only polls that matters are the ones they take on November 3rd and Donald Trump still has a great chance of winning all the ones he needs even as Biden wins CA and NY 99-1 or whatever.

There was an article a few weeks back that said the most reliable poll wasn't the one that asked who people would vote for, but rather it was the one that asked who people thought would win.

Well, what did THAT poll say? Don't leave us hanging

threecount wrote:Here's the transcript of Trump's response when he was asked what are his top priorities for a second term.

What did I just read?

TenuredVulture wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:Trump is definitely the person to try and bribe the public with a bail out... I just wonder if/when he resorts to that the GOP is still full throatily backing him or punting until 2022/24 elections.

I think trying to pass a second round of checks to win an election is refreshingly normal. Furthermore, I think only a new round of cash payments to voters moves the needle at all. I wonder though if behind the scenes some Republicans are discouraging this in favor of even more deregulation and tax cuts.

No blue state bailouts though remember

Maybe they should start polling people about whether they are planning to go to the polls during a pandemic.

Swiggers wrote:

threecount wrote:Here's the transcript of Trump's response when he was asked what are his top priorities for a second term.

What did I just read?

He's the male version of Sarah Palin. And he has the nerve to talk about Biden: "“Whenever he does talk, he can’t put two sentences together,” Trump exclaimed. “I don’t want to be nice or un-nice. The man can’t speak.” I think my favorite line from the town hall was this: "he's going to be president because some people don't love me". Daddy Trump alive and well in little Donnie's head.

We are getting a break as Don is headed back to NJ again this weekend. Since there is a quarantine order in place for NJ for people who have been n AZ, will Don be made to stay inside or is this one of this private business jurisdiction issues? Will anyone who goes to/works at Bedminster be quarantined?