I'll never again be confident about political outcomes based on polls.

Having said that, The Economist is giving Joe nearly a 90% shot:

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president?utm_campaign=us2020-forecast&utm_medium=email&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_content=link-to-forecast-registrants&utm_term=2020-06-23&

New York Times/Siena State Polls

Arizona: Biden 48%, Trump 41%

Florida: Biden 47%, Trump 41%

Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%

North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 40%

Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 40%

Wisconsin: Biden 49%, Trump 38%

#AZsen
Kelly (D) 47%
McSally (R-inc.) 38%

#MIsen
Peters (D-inc.) 41%
James (R) 31%

#NCsen
Cunningham (D) 42%
Tillis (R-inc.) 39%

#NCgov
Cooper (D-inc.) 50%
Forest (R) 39%

Article about me getting creamed by the Mayor

https://www.dailylocal.com/news/local/h ... c8922.html

Great polling numbers for Biden from Nate Cohn.

+10 or more - MI, WI and PA
+9 - NC
+7 - AZ
+6 - FL

Virtually tied in Texas.

While I am glad to see Biden up 10 rather than down 10, the only poll I am truly interested in will likely come out in the early hours of November 4th. I refuse to let myself believe in the demise of Donald Trump until it actually happens. He is the human form of COVID-19.

I don’t think Hilary ever lead by more than a few points in these states and certainly not anything near this magnitude.

If the strategy is to let Trump dig his own grave all the while strategically getting joe in public and Obama stumping...it’s working.

The fact that Joe our funded trump in May and likely in June is going to pay huge dividends to hold this lead.

Christy took that time to say that he would fight to fix a broken system that favors profit over people.

“When something happens to one of us it happens to all of us,” Christy said.

This was great, CHARLES

CalvinBall wrote:Article about me getting creamed by the Mayor

Well, since that career change didn't work out, may this other thing will. #Something4Everyone #MayorPorn

pacino wrote:

“When something happens to one of us it happens to all of us,” Christy said.

This was great, CHARLES

Good job reaching for relevance riffing on 'Where We Go One We Go All'. Your place in Q awaits

Speaking of profit, Amazon sells Qanon stuff

CalvinBall wrote:New York Times/Siena State Polls

Arizona: Biden 48%, Trump 41%

Florida: Biden 47%, Trump 41%

Michigan: Biden 47%, Trump 36%

North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 40%

Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 40%

Wisconsin: Biden 49%, Trump 38%

See you guys are getting me all excited so that I must keep reminding myself that the only polls that matters are the ones they take on November 3rd and Donald Trump still has a great chance of winning all the ones he needs even as Biden wins CA and NY 99-1 or whatever.

CalvinBall wrote:Article about me getting creamed by the Mayor

https://www.dailylocal.com/news/local/h ... c8922.html

How much of this was done under the presumption that this mayor, owing to her already being in office and the presumed political contacts that brings, can raise the most money? Because let me tell you that is all the HDCC give a fuck about. They act like they are there to help, and they are... if you don't need any financial help. If you are raising it hand over fist, then they cough up more.

But the undoubtedly worst part of running for office is "dialing for dollars." It's horrible.

But I do agree with pacino about your quote. Solidarity forever, my friend.

The Savior wrote:I don’t think Hilary ever lead by more than a few points in these states and certainly not anything near this magnitude.

If the strategy is to let Trump dig his own grave all the while strategically getting joe in public and Obama stumping...it’s working.

The fact that Joe our funded trump in May and likely in June is going to pay huge dividends to hold this lead.

That plan is fine so long as everything remains a smoking ruin of a disaster.

But the economy is opening back up, protests won't last, and by October Trump might well be able to say, "See? We weathered the storm, things are on the upswing, I'm a great manager, and Joe Biden brushed his teeth with his comb this morning because he's senile."

Shutting up and saying nothing is a great plan until it isn't. See: Dick Thornburgh in the PA senate race against Harris Wofford in the 1991 special election to replace John Heinz. Wofford's own internal polls had Thornburgh winning by 40 points, so Thornburgh's people told him to just shut the fuck up, he could only ruin it.

He lost.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harris_Wo ... on_victory

Wolfgang622 wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:Article about me getting creamed by the Mayor

https://www.dailylocal.com/news/local/h ... c8922.html

How much of this was done under the presumption that this mayor, owing to her already being in office and the presumed political contacts that brings, can raise the most money? Because let me tell you that is all the HDCC give a fuck about. They act like they are there to help, and they are... if you don't need any financial help. If you are raising it hand over fist, then they cough up more.

But the undoubtedly worst part of running for office is "dialing for dollars." It's horrible.

The name recognition was huge for the people voting. And the perception that people will give her money because of that. All the institutional money would have been there for whoever won. However there was another candidate that has money lined up, moreso than she is capable. Union, mostly. If you saw his list of endorsements you'd understand. It was led by Rendell, Conor Lamb and Joe Torsella. Why those folks wasted political capital, I do not know. He is a polarizing, generally toxic person.

There is this belief that the R candidate has a shot here. He's awful. Still has no website. The write up on him on the County GOP page is 90 percent about his activities doing pro-life stuff. He is a big Trump guy too.

pacino wrote:

Christy took that time to say that he would fight to fix a broken system that favors profit over people.

“When something happens to one of us it happens to all of us,” Christy said.

This was great, CHARLES

First time the Daily Local ever printed those words, probably.

Wolfgang622 wrote:

The Savior wrote:I don’t think Hilary ever lead by more than a few points in these states and certainly not anything near this magnitude.

If the strategy is to let Trump dig his own grave all the while strategically getting joe in public and Obama stumping...it’s working.

The fact that Joe our funded trump in May and likely in June is going to pay huge dividends to hold this lead.

That plan is fine so long as everything remains a smoking ruin of a disaster.

But the economy is opening back up, protests won't last, and by October Trump might well be able to say, "See? We weathered the storm, things are on the upswing, I'm a great manager, and Joe Biden brushed his teeth with his comb this morning because he's senile."

Shutting up and saying nothing is a great plan until it isn't. See: Dick Thornburgh in the PA senate race against Harris Wofford in the 1991 special election to replace John Heinz. Wofford's own internal polls had Thornburgh winning by 40 points, so Thornburgh's people told him to just shut the fuck up, he could only ruin it.

He lost.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harris_Wo ... on_victory

There’s no viable path that points to that happening. The economy has “swung back” to some degree and look at his numbers. Not yet even close to being enough to keep him floating.

Biden needs 3 coherent hours in front of the nation and I think he wins. Trump is unable to consistently not fuck up.

He’s down and the Dems haven’t even started spending yet on ads.

Wolfgang622 wrote:But the economy is opening back up

Doesn't appear likely to be a win for Trump

Think of it this way... With all that has happened, Trump still has 40% of the vote. Nothing has gone right, and he still has 2 out of 5 people saying that he has their support. It ain't over.

CalvinBall wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:Article about me getting creamed by the Mayor

https://www.dailylocal.com/news/local/h ... c8922.html

How much of this was done under the presumption that this mayor, owing to her already being in office and the presumed political contacts that brings, can raise the most money? Because let me tell you that is all the HDCC give a fuck about. They act like they are there to help, and they are... if you don't need any financial help. If you are raising it hand over fist, then they cough up more.

But the undoubtedly worst part of running for office is "dialing for dollars." It's horrible.

The name recognition was huge for the people voting. And the perception that people will give her money because of that. All the institutional money would have been there for whoever won. However there was another candidate that has money lined up, moreso than she is capable. Union, mostly. If you saw his list of endorsements you'd understand. It was led by Rendell, Conor Lamb and Joe Torsella. Why those folks wasted political capital, I do not know. He is a polarizing, generally toxic person.

There is this belief that the R candidate has a shot here. He's awful. Still has no website. The write up on him on the County GOP page is 90 percent about his activities doing pro-life stuff. He is a big Trump guy too.

Cal, that’s awesome that you did that, I really admire the effort and balls it took for you to do that. It really takes a lot to put yourself out there like that, wish there were more people with your spirit and values who were willing to do so. I’m sure it won’t be your last dance.

As for the R candidate, I don’t know anything about him but this

communications company executive and Realtor

Makes me hate him with every fiber of my being.

Grotewold wrote:

Wolfgang622 wrote:But the economy is opening back up

Doesn't appear likely to be a win for Trump

About that:

Another 1.48 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending June 20, exceeding economists’ expectations for 1.32 million. The prior week’s figure was revised higher to 1.54 million from the previously reported 1.51 million claims. While last week’s report marked 12 consecutive weeks of deceleration, more than 47 million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance over the past 14 weeks.

Trump may rightly be able to claim China lied about / downplayed COVID-19 (even though Trump himself praised Xi early on) but this administration's response to the crisis has been abysmal by any reasonable measure.