Eem wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:good friends brother lives in japan. they are doing anti body tests i guess en masse? he got tested and the results said he had it back in november sometime.

The antibody tests can tell you WHEN you had it?

Idk.

Think he could have been like oh I was sick in November and relayed this story conflating the two things.

CalvinBall wrote:good friends brother lives in japan. they are doing anti body tests i guess en masse? he got tested and the results said he had it back in november sometime.

Lots of quality control problems with those tests. By the way--another reason NY will bend the curve down might be because so many there do in fact have antibodies. The numbers are crazy, but some people think undetected cases could be as high as 50x confirmed cases. No one really knows what the ration is--but let's say is 10x. New York has over 300k confirmed cases. That could translate to 3 million total infected, which gets you pretty close to herd immunity--there simply aren't that many people left to infect.

Considering how early and how hard NY was hit--before there was much social distancing there or anywhere else, it's plausible that lots and lots of people got infected and never knew it.

Eem wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:good friends brother lives in japan. they are doing anti body tests i guess en masse? he got tested and the results said he had it back in november sometime.

The antibody tests can tell you WHEN you had it?

yeah there seems to be no way this is true. i mean i am no expert but that seems impossible?

sounds like BS

CalvinBall wrote:

Eem wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:good friends brother lives in japan. they are doing anti body tests i guess en masse? he got tested and the results said he had it back in november sometime.

The antibody tests can tell you WHEN you had it?

Idk.

Think he could have been like oh I was sick in November and relayed this story conflating the two things.

Yeah maybe he was one of those anecdotal stories that everybody has heard "Oh man, I had a bad chest cold in November and it had all the signs"

I just got a text message PPP poll/survey monkey and i really gave it to ole donny

MoBettle wrote:Get that it's all frustrating, but 6-8 weeks ago experts were saying that we need to maintain the lockdown for a long time just to keep the deaths close to 100k, not sure how what has unfolded has somehow contradicted that.

it means that since we haven't had a downswing on positive tests(don't try to semantics this eem!) that the death rate is still going to rise nationally until the average for the nation decreases. and this is with social distancing for 6 weeks now. it appears we're going to zip to the 200k number that we were hoping to avoid with social distancing. we really shouldn't be seeing the sustained positives that we have now for this long.

this is awful leadership from the federal governments to the local governments. now we have places starting to open up when we haven't even had a bend in our national case load yet.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html

see bar chart

its just extremely disheartening

Eem is right that you need a denominator as well...which the number of tests provides. Unfortunately we haven't tested that many more people by the end of April as we were in the beginning. Still, the % positive is generally decreasing.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 9496637447

My thoughts pretty much align with Nate's. There are some good signs but I'm also fairly pessimistic as social distancing might not have done as much to squash R as we had hoped and a lot of places are starting to re-open.

We need to hope that masks help, that weather helps, that outdoor transmission rates are significantly lower than indoor, that testing truly ramps up. Absent a few of these, I think that a lot of regions are going to be stuck in this range or increase for a while. New York was/is an absolute disaster and is what other metro areas are looking at if they re-open too early absent more testing.

That said, I think smaller areas probably can loosen a bit in the coming month. I just don't see how major metro areas do for a while. It all sucks.

JUburton wrote:If the orders are made with the authority granted by a law, then they should be able to be upheld, right? If the President institutes martial law you think we can just tell the national guard that congress didnt authorize it and go about your day?

Is the DA in Altoona a republican by chance?

Have you ever been to Altoona?

JUburton wrote:I just got a text message PPP poll/survey monkey and i really gave it to ole donny

knew polls were just liberal bias

WV Governor not mincing words lol.

https://twitter.com/CalebJHull/status/1 ... 9098226688

The B1G Piece wrote:

JUburton wrote:If the orders are made with the authority granted by a law, then they should be able to be upheld, right? If the President institutes martial law you think we can just tell the national guard that congress didnt authorize it and go about your day?

Is the DA in Altoona a republican by chance?

Have you ever been to Altoona?

lol it was tongue in cheek.

Eem wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:good friends brother lives in japan. they are doing anti body tests i guess en masse? he got tested and the results said he had it back in november sometime.

The antibody tests can tell you WHEN you had it?

they cut the virus in half and count the growth rings i guess

momadance wrote:WV Governor not mincing words lol.

https://twitter.com/CalebJHull/status/1 ... 9098226688

gotta follow the fucking guidelines. arguably the smartest thing ever to come out of west virginia.

what am i missing? has the video been edited?

JUburton wrote:Eem is right that you need a denominator as well...which the number of tests provides. Unfortunately we haven't tested that many more people by the end of April as we were in the beginning. Still, the % positive is generally decreasing.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 9496637447

My thoughts pretty much align with Nate's. There are some good signs but I'm also fairly pessimistic as social distancing might not have done as much to squash R as we had hoped and a lot of places are starting to re-open.

We need to hope that masks help, that weather helps, that outdoor transmission rates are significantly lower than indoor, that testing truly ramps up. Absent a few of these, I think that a lot of regions are going to be stuck in this range or increase for a while. New York was/is an absolute disaster and is what other metro areas are looking at if they re-open too early absent more testing.

That said, I think smaller areas probably can loosen a bit in the coming month. I just don't see how major metro areas do for a while. It all sucks.

have i miss something about the requirements to get a test are? if they're still "sick or need to be in contact with someonw who had covid19" then all this tells me is that allergies is kicking up bad. has there been a fundamental change in any state? are these tests just backlogs from over a week or two ago?

There are multiple POVs I think we're all trying to articulate ITT

- jtk's point is Trump anchored to the IHME model, which I trust LG's opinion and my own conclusion that the model is complete shit, that said we'd have 60,000 deaths by August with social distancing through the end of this month. When we had 60K by the end of April, I think that should give everyone a clear indication this is a big fucking deal and the mortality rate is a real thing and this is not the flu, AT ALL.

- For testing increases, Arizona finally succumbed to testing people who thought they're sick without clear symptoms in the last week and our daily testing volume has increased, on average, by 22.7% and our positive % has gone down every day in the last week. That is a good sign, but, we've only test 1.2% of the population and that's not enough.

- I think as states look to reopen, I've seen nothing that makes me feel great about the future of our new normal that we won't be able to contain another targeted outbreak. Contact tracing is non-existent, there are not any significant travel bans and quarantining still is misunderstood from state-to-state. What alarms me the most and I shared the NYT Upshot analysis last week, these are the states with the most rapid increase in daily case growth: Minnesota, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, Texas, Illinois, Wisconsin, Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, & Georgia. A majority of those states didn't have strict shelter in place orders and those are very correlated.

irregardless of what model the administration put their faith in. there hasn't been a single published one that said "this won't be so bad." they've all ranged from this is fucking awful to a large chunk of our population is going to die.

the fact that the federal government has been completely wishy washy on the entire thing and gave carte blanche or no guidance to the states is the reason why this is still escalating.

Anyone do this ? https://questdirect.questdiagnostics.co ... ad949dcb57

is that FDA approved?