jamiethekiller wrote:

Someone was asking about countries who got their shit together. Graph starts at case 100.

I mean if Spain and France are green, maybe it's better not to be green

Also graphs are more useful with a y-axis that has numbers on them

Uncle Milty wrote:

Bucky wrote:i don't think there's gonna be baseball this year

BANNED!

co-signed

It's about time we started this movement.

Rep. Nino Vitale - Ohio

“One of those principles is that we are all created in the image and likeness of God. That image is seen the most by our face. I will not wear a mask”

This is not based on logic, this is based on fear and propaganda and every statistical, data driven study done in the last 2 weeks says death counts are low, the models were wrong, and this is more like the flu”

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... es-are-the

First date in a long time (per worldometers) that only one state has registered over 100 deaths (NY), although still over 1300 deaths which is low, but probably not so low for a Monday.Georgia very high on new deaths, though a lot of that is bookkeeping. Continuing to see large states such as California and Texas rising up in the ranks of new cases, although still pretty lightly hit overall. Only 6 states remain where less than 1/1000 residents have tested positive, which used to seem like a watershed figure, but is now the less-than-normal. US average is 1 in 360,though skewed by NY, which is over 1%

Worldwide it remains interesting to me that the top ten in new cases, while led by the US, then consists of Russia, Brazil, UK, India, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Peru and Mexico. A lot of things go into that of course, and luckily one of them is the decline of the virus in most of the main European targets. but it does speak to the mind-boggling spread of it and the continued threats in far-flung quarters

This is interesting to look at how different policy and individual decisions project to impact both the health crisis and the economy.

https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/i ... -simulator

thephan wrote:

JUburton wrote:If they're not essentially, they're not allowed to have employees come in unless they have a waiver from the state...which you can't get anymore. This would be no different than a restaurant just choosing to open and forcing employees to come in.

PA has updated the guidance to align with this: https://www.pa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2 ... 8c-004.pdf

Is it a big employer? If that were me I'd probably contact a local authority as I believe what they're doing would be illegal.

I don't know how many employees they have. I've not lived there since I was a teenager. it is a business that existed when I was a kid, so I view it as a historical employer therefore mentally associated with having a decent number of employees. Sometime in the last decade it was purchased by larger specialty manufacturer and kept as a regional manufacturing and design arm as well as trading on its good name.

They can be reported by anyone: https://www.pa.gov/guides/responding-to ... Businesses

Bucky wrote:how did italy slow the carnage so <relatively> quickly? is it just the population difference??

Italy's 3-day moving average is 281 deaths

Our 3-day moving average is 1389 deaths

Italy's population is about 18% of ours. Multiplied out 281 deaths in Italy is 1528 here. So Italy has managed to slow the carnage so well that now people are only slightly dying there more than here instead of way more.

We have some natural advantages vs. most of Western Europe with a more spread out population and a younger population and a health care system better equipped for handling waves of sick people. But we also have disadvantages with more obese/diabetic/etc. people.

The US vs. the UK/France/Germany/Spain/Italy is almost 1:1 population wise. We're at 69,921 deaths. The five largest western European countries are at 115,435. We're probably going to close that gap somewhat, because Italy especially but most of them are slowing faster than we are. And Germany has handled it incredibly. But I imagine we're going to end up doing 'better' than the major big countries in western Europe on the whole with their universal healthcare and worldly, not Donald Trump ways. I think that's worth keeping in mind to some significant extent when evaluating how things are going/have went here.

Luck, some warmer weather in parts of the country, some smart local governance, the American people social distancing before the government mandating it, etc. all playing a part despite federal leadership having its head up its ass and the mayor of the country's largest city being an absolute idiot. Like this was a really shitty disease that didn't have a great or easy answer to it. And there were definitely things fucked up here on the federal, state and local levels. But I think it's hard to tease out too much how big a difference governments made vs. blind luck and other factors.

If we see an explosion in cases in June/July that Europe doesn't see, that would not be too tough to tease out, blame wise.

The Dude wrote:I can’t believe there are a significant amount of non essential needing daycare, or at least a significant enough amount that be frugal for a daycare to open

I’m drowning trying to wfh and occupying my 3 year old during the day. Most office workers with preschool aged kids are in the same position.

That said, I don’t think I’d be comfortable enough yet to send my kid to daycare with the kids of frontline workers who could be getting daily exposure.

thephan wrote:Rep. Nino Vitale - Ohio

“One of those principles is that we are all created in the image and likeness of God. That image is seen the most by our face. I will not wear a mask”

This is not based on logic, this is based on fear and propaganda and every statistical, data driven study done in the last 2 weeks says death counts are low, the models were wrong, and this is more like the flu”

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... es-are-the

I fear Vitale’s reasoning leads inexorably to nudity.

The IHME model has been straight garbage. I've been saying that for weeks now.

I get the CDC updates at work. It's just another model in a series of models that have been consistently wrong. The difference with the CDC model is due to the states opening back up, and the anticipated surge in cases and deaths. I think that's a valid assumption, but the actual numbers are just a guess at this point. The virus spread is so completely non-linear, as are the hospitalization rates and death rates, that the modeling across the board is guesswork.

I absolutely expect the number of cases and deaths to rise. The entire point of social distancing was to go through the end of May, and this was to lessen the chance of major medical systems disruption. In effect, every state that "opens" now is rendering the last two months of social distancing and self-isolation completely pointless.

What do I expect? I expect rates to rise substantially between the 20th and 30th of May, there's a two week infectious period before we start seeing large scale hospitalization and death rate increases. No idea if they will hit the 200K a day case mark or the 3K daily death mark but no one does. Once we get into June, look out.

And the states that allow for congregations of people to go back to work in crowded conditions, be it a warehouse, a box store, an office building or a high-rise, those are the places where you will see the highest increases. Population density matters more on the micro-level...

jerseyhoya wrote:But I imagine we're going to end up doing 'better' than the major big countries in western Europe on the whole with their universal healthcare and worldly, not Donald Trump ways. I think that's worth keeping in mind to some significant extent when evaluating how things are going/have went here.

Please tell me "we did better than Europe with their precious universal health care" isn't going to be a GOP election talking point.

As if better insurance was going to keep people from getting sick/dying? Or is the point that their lazy, low-budget doctors couldn't figure out how to curb the pandemic? The virus jumped on them weeks before the US, and I suspect their numbers are more honest than ours. Also goes without saying that the medical bills of US survivors are going to be a bit harsher than those in Europe.

A gym and a hair salon have reopened in Altoona and the DA is refusing to enforce the state’s order to shutdown.

https://www.altoonamirror.com/news/loca ... is-enough/

But Blair County District Attorney Pete Weeks said, “I’m not sure noncompliance with the governor’s order is a crime,” Weeks said. “Criminalizing that behavior without legislation sounds unconstitutional.”

Gorilla House Gym, 3200 Fairway Drive, opened Friday and has already generated two citations, one Friday by Altoona code enforcement and one of Saturday by Altoona police.

yep, cops are in uncharted waters here. I've had similar discussions with a few. for the most part, they don't see that they have legal authority to uphold executive orders. it's a very gray area.

they can hammer them with citations though

Money is way more important than people to too many of us. I’m just amazed that people will lie to themselves and latch on to crappy conspiracies because it’s what they want.

Nobody better ever tell me that people get wiser as they age ever again. Children, I tell you....

If the orders are made with the authority granted by a law, then they should be able to be upheld, right? If the President institutes martial law you think we can just tell the national guard that congress didnt authorize it and go about your day?

Is the DA in Altoona a republican by chance?

Rev_Beezer wrote:Money is way more important than people to too many of us. I’m just amazed that people will lie to themselves and latch on to crappy conspiracies because it’s what they want.

Nobody better ever tell me that people get wiser as they age ever again. Children, I tell you....

watched a video this morning about how the movie Pitch Perfect is actually a commentary on 9/11. Opened my eyes.

The Dude wrote:they can hammer them with citations though

They can do all they want but at some point business are going to say fuck it, at this point either I open or I go out of business.

I can imagine coalitions or groups of small businesses reopening soon in Philly since there is no way they will survive using the governor's phasing plan. Philly cases are still going up, over 400 per 100,000. I don't know if it will drop below 50 for 14 days until there is a vaccine.

At there is good news from the Oxford study. Early June to know if the vaccine works?



The challenge will be to mass produce the vaccine - could take 6-9 months. However, I think people see that length of time and thing all the vaccine will be made available at the end of the time period, all at once. Even getting some of the vaccine out there in June to hot spots will be huge.

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnrobb/sta ... 0361791489

Not great America. Fuck this administration.