thephan wrote:New internal projections from the Trump administration suggest U.S. deaths will grow on a daily basis to 3,000 by the beginning of June, weeks after states have begun reopening their economies.

The startling figures from models produced by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) come as more and more states take steps to remove social distancing measures meant to slow the spread of the COVID-19 disease.


https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... -difficult

jerseyhoya wrote:

thephan wrote:New internal projections from the Trump administration suggest U.S. deaths will grow on a daily basis to 3,000 by the beginning of June, weeks after states have begun reopening their economies.

The startling figures from models produced by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) come as more and more states take steps to remove social distancing measures meant to slow the spread of the COVID-19 disease.


https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... -difficult

This was essentially fake news, but the IHME update seems less fake and pretty depressing.

jerseyhoya wrote:

thephan wrote:New internal projections from the Trump administration suggest U.S. deaths will grow on a daily basis to 3,000 by the beginning of June, weeks after states have begun reopening their economies.

The startling figures from models produced by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) come as more and more states take steps to remove social distancing measures meant to slow the spread of the COVID-19 disease.


https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... -difficult

This was essentially fake news, but the IHME update seems less fake and pretty depressing.

JUburton wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

thephan wrote:New internal projections from the Trump administration suggest U.S. deaths will grow on a daily basis to 3,000 by the beginning of June, weeks after states have begun reopening their economies.

The startling figures from models produced by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) come as more and more states take steps to remove social distancing measures meant to slow the spread of the COVID-19 disease.


https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... -difficult

This was essentially fake news, but the IHME update seems less fake and pretty depressing.

what are you basing this on?

And hasn't the IHME model actually been pretty bad? Vox did some piece that said it's day before death estimates were outside of its 90% confidence interval 70% of the time.

Werthless wrote:

JUburton wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

thephan wrote:New internal projections from the Trump administration suggest U.S. deaths will grow on a daily basis to 3,000 by the beginning of June, weeks after states have begun reopening their economies.

The startling figures from models produced by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) come as more and more states take steps to remove social distancing measures meant to slow the spread of the COVID-19 disease.


https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... -difficult

This was essentially fake news, but the IHME update seems less fake and pretty depressing.

what are you basing this on?

And hasn't the IHME model actually been pretty bad? Vox did some piece that said it's day before death estimates were outside of its 90% confidence interval 70% of the time.

Do you have a link? Eerors would be highly correlated, such that the statement of accuracy is not as disqualifying as you suggest.

JUburton wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

thephan wrote:New internal projections from the Trump administration suggest U.S. deaths will grow on a daily basis to 3,000 by the beginning of June, weeks after states have begun reopening their economies.

The startling figures from models produced by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) come as more and more states take steps to remove social distancing measures meant to slow the spread of the COVID-19 disease.


https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... -difficult

This was essentially fake news, but the IHME update seems less fake and pretty depressing.

what are you basing this on?

A draft government report projects covid-19 cases will surge to about 200,000 per day by June 1, a staggering jump that would be accompanied by more than 3,000 deaths each day.

The document predicts a sharp increase in both cases and deaths beginning about May 14, according to a copy shared with The Washington Post. The forecast stops at June 1, but shows both daily cases and deaths on an upward trajectory at that point.

The White House and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention disavowed the report, although the slides carry the CDC’s logo. The creator of the model said the numbers are unfinished projections shown to the CDC as a work in progress.

The work contained a wide range of possibilities and modeling was not complete, according to Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, who created the model. He said he didn’t know how the update was turned into a slidedeck by government officials and shared with news organizations. The data was first reported by the New York Times.

“I had no role in the process by which that was presented and shown,” said Lessler, who added that the data was presented as an “FYI” of work still in progress to officials within FEMA. “It was not in any way intended to be a forecast.”

Lessler said that while the exact numbers and charts in the CDC document may differ from the final results, they do show accurately how covid-19 cases could spiral out of control. He said 100,000 cases per day by the end of the month is within the realm of possibility. Much depends on political decisions being made today.

And hasn't the IHME model actually been pretty bad? Vox did some piece that said it's day before death estimates were outside of its 90% confidence interval 70% of the time.

Bucky wrote:how did italy slow the carnage so <relatively> quickly? is it just the population difference??

Bucky wrote:i don't think there's gonna be baseball this year

Bucky wrote:i don't think there's gonna be baseball this year

Bucky wrote:i don't think there's gonna be baseball this year