JUburton wrote:Is the DA in Altoona a republican by chance?

You know that he is. In his latest reelection campaign he emphasized that he’s pro-life too, which seems like an odd thing for a DA to need to weigh in on.

hmm.

well the population of the remaining 48 states is larger that NJ and NY combined and also those two states were like 2 of the first 3 or 4 with outbreaks. just not sure that shows that much.

i think population density is the missing link

NY took drastic social distance options and the rest of the country didn't. NYC is mirroring other countries around the world while the rest of the US isn't. its prettry striking that on the whole the country is completely fucking this up.

There has also been a relatively significant increase in testing in the country. I don't know how -- or how not -- that graph accounts for it, but we can't just clamor for more testing and then panic when more cases are found

I saw some study out of Germany yesterday that they estimated their coronavirus cases may be 10X higher than the numbers reported.

I also saw a report out of Stockholm where 10% of people randomly selected were positive for the virus, but it appears that study had some flaws with it.

To me it seems like people are getting very caught up in trends than levels, when levels are probably at least as important.

New York is improving rapidly, and New Jersey seems like it's getting better. But we're still adding more several multiples more cases per day in NJ than they are in Florida, to pick a state that is almost 3x our population and gets criticized a lot, while our test positivity rate is still higher. Our curve is 'bending' more, but our curve is shitty.

The whole thing at the start was we wanted to flatten the curve so our healthcare system wouldn't get overwhelmed. Most places in the country have flattened their curve, and now they're getting yelled at for not 'bending' the curve down. NYC is bending their curve down because it did the bad thing where the curve went nuts and tons of people died. I don't think most places are ready to reopen because I don't think there's been much planning on how to actually do that safely. And I wish people would hold off for another week or two most areas to see sustained improvement and also allow testing to continue to improve. But in a lot of places the level of infections never really got that bad to begin with so a lack of improvement still puts them in a better spot than places that are rapidly improving.



Seemed like at the beginning people were arguing for doing the blue one with the longer plateau. I guess maybe in some places the blue will become new red zones as they try to open back up. And we're more vulnerable to that because so little is being done to set up contact tracing and other things to prevent outbreaks. But feels like goalposts are moving to give credit to places like NYC where things were genuinely terrible and have improved to be still quite bad compared to almost anywhere else in the country, and chastising the places that never got bad.

if you're looking for the state with the best response and probably should be the example on how to deal with the virus... i'm guessing washington. seattle was one of the first epicenter/hotspots and they got it under control pretty quick.

I think we thought that initially flattening the curve was to not overwhelm hospital capacity because we thought that would lead to decent mortality results. I think we're finding now that the virus is more pernicious than we thought and the focus is shifting to smashing the curve (keeping R under 1...well under 1 if possible). New York never got truly overrun with people dying on the streets and they still had an awful result that's still ongoing. If that kind of curve smashing is the benchmark then we're all screwed.

The other reason to flatten the curve is to buy time for more effective treatments and even a vaccine. On the other hand, I also think it's really difficult to insist on New York's shut downs in the absence of New York's numbers. My 80 year mom, in NJ, has told me she doesn't care what happens, she's out of the house on May 15. I have no idea where she's going to go.

To me, what's dumb is that at least in some quarters, there is resistance to painless measures like wearing a mask.

Can flattening the curve be abolished from this board?

People are dying regardless of health care capacity. In the beginning it was thought that getting people in the healthcare system would save their life. That is not the case.


States have been 'closed' for over a month now and they all lack a metro center the size of NYC and population density issues. They should have been bending down prior to NYC or at the same time. Instead the national case load is increasing despite our best efforts of social distancing meanwhile the behemoth that is NYC is bending downwards on case load. It has nothing to do with the amount of cases but just the overall trendline.

It's disheartening and discouraging. States governor's and federal officials in charge of the response should all be locked up.

Increased testing doesn't mean shit because beven with it everyone has been social distancing for over a month now. The increased testing should be coming back less and not MORE.

The increased testing IS coming back less overall. 9% of tests were reported as positive yesterday, the lowest of the year

Look I'm not trying to argue we handled this well or anything like that. But New York and New Jersey are bending down in large part because basically everyone there had the damn thing already and they had nowhere to go but down. And the population density was a huge factor

It is both possible to think Trump is a moron who fucked this up impossibly while also doubting that, like, Ft. Lauderdale is going to be massacred in the way NYC was

Get that it's all frustrating, but 6-8 weeks ago experts were saying that we need to maintain the lockdown for a long time just to keep the deaths close to 100k, not sure how what has unfolded has somehow contradicted that.

TenuredVulture wrote:To me, what's dumb is that at least in some quarters, there is resistance to painless measures like wearing a mask.

Well, this is the same country that elected Donald Trump behind the backing of many fervent supporters voting against their own best interests, so it does seem fairly on brand.

MoBettle wrote:Get that it's all frustrating, but 6-8 weeks ago experts were saying that we need to maintain the lockdown for a long time just to keep the deaths close to 100k, not sure how what has unfolded has somehow contradicted that.

In terms of the virus, not much.

In terms of the economy and just peoples patience levels in general, a lot.

good friends brother lives in japan. they are doing anti body tests i guess en masse? he got tested and the results said he had it back in november sometime.

@realDonald

Exciting to see our Country starting to open up again!

The new talking points seems to be at models are inaccurate, and more so it would seem the people out there in the mid fringe are saying that these are fraudulent. Really it’s just a repackaging this age old idea that everything is a conspiracy against the president. You know it’s a conspiracy agenda the covI’d it has killed almost 70,000 Americans. Probably the most cringe worthy part of this movement is the idea that models require input, and that the models themselves are either being created to generate scary output or that the data is deliberately being put in to skew the results to appear negative.

CalvinBall wrote:good friends brother lives in japan. they are doing anti body tests i guess en masse? he got tested and the results said he had it back in november sometime.

The antibody tests can tell you WHEN you had it?

Two conspiracies from a friend of mine’s manufacturing workplace that support reopening:

A managers daughter is a nursing student or maybe it was one of her friend, who told him that somebody’s relative died in a nursing home and we’re offered $5000 so that they could put coronavirus on the death certificate. One challenge that seemed a little dumb, he said well why would they lie? What’s in it for them?

Item number two circulated by a manager is that anyone who would call in the workplace for being open would be the same type of people who would turn over jews to the Nazis.

I just don’t even have words