Eem wrote:I can't believe I think Nate Silver is the most rational person on this, but this: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 6066070530

He's been a putz pretty often during this too.

https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/diseas ... tions.aspx

These are pretty good from PA. Hard to get exact info without it being per capita and showing the number of tests but a good general idea.

Obviously, SE PA is driving everything right now and it's dropping off only very slightly. Hopefully that's due to more testing and percent positives are decreasing but I don't really know.
Looks like NE and SW PA are seeing some meaningful decreases. Most other areas (besides SE) are so low already that hopefully they get fairly well squashed soon.

It just seems to me it's some combination of a bunch of early seeders while we were doing nothing, lazy early distancing, and population density that drives a lot of this. That's not to absolve the feds or other governments. It's not like they didn't have warnings in January and later. I mean, JFC, De Blasio said to ride the MTA on March 5th. Lots of blame to go around but it definitely starts at the federal level.

Positive testing rate again about 9% on 260K tests it appears today

It appears PA reported a ton of "old" (meaning ones they hadn't counted) deaths from nursing homes

Bucky wrote:

Uncle Milty wrote:I dunno what I'm looking for in those numbers either.

We've expanded testing beyond just those with moderate to severe symptoms. The percentage positive decreasing strikes me as a "No duh!" moment.

I don't know what a "good" percentage is as we test a broader (but not broad enough) range but 9% doesn't sound like it to me. For example if 9% of people carried HIV in the 80s I think I might have joined a monastery instead of dating.

result woulda been the same

Mrs. Bucky never mentioned a monk fetish

Eem wrote:I can't believe I think Nate Silver is the most rational person on this, but this: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 6066070530

Apparently PA isn’t listening, plus they are now including suspected cases now in their totals

something I've come to learn these past few days is that people want their taco bell and starbucks. Lines of cars are spilling out into the streets. I think once businesses reopen, it'll be life as usual for a lot of people. They'll follow mandates, sure, but they'll be coming out in droves

Warszawa wrote:

Eem wrote:I can't believe I think Nate Silver is the most rational person on this, but this: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 6066070530

Apparently PA isn’t listening, plus they are now including suspected cases now in their totals

I think the point is that "blue" states won't be disincentivized as much as red states

This might not be good. Or it might explain everything.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/the-cor ... finds.html

I don’t know if it’s good or bad but we’ve already been dealing with it so, oh well I guess?

Were fucked

Another story on the same subject.

https://www.concordmonitor.com/A-mutant ... s-34211676

Think that article was basically called bullshit by a lot of virologists in long twitter threads today

The Dude wrote:I don’t know if it’s good or bad but we’ve already been dealing with it so, oh well I guess?

Have WE or have some of us?

From the second link I psoted:

The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated quickly to the East Coast of the United States and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March, the scientists wrote.

Does a different strain explain some of the regional differences or has the more contagious strain become dominant across the country.

I'm actually more concerned if the work completed thus far on treatment and vaccine needs to be restarted now.

I didn't like these 2 nuggets either:

In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease, the report warned.

Scientists at major organizations working on a vaccine or drugs have told The Times that they are pinning their hopes on initial evidence that the virus is stable and not likely to mutate the way influenza virus does, requiring a new vaccine every year. The Los Alamos report could upend that assumption.

CFP wrote:Think that article was basically called bullshit by a lot of virologists in long twitter threads today

Thanks. Didn't see that (I stopped at Rex Chapman). Maybe I'm too trusting when I see Los Alamos National Lab.

in The article you posted they say it’s the strain most of the world has been dealing with since March, and the one that hit the US

If it was re-infecting, we'd likely have seen many examples by now

Rockinghorse wrote:If it was re-infecting, we'd likely have seen many examples by now

Exactly

06hawkalum wrote:

Rockinghorse wrote:If it was re-infecting, we'd likely have seen many examples by now

Exactly

How would we know unless they had significant symptoms each time? Not saying it's likely just that we wouldn't know.

Not sure I'd consider what I quoted as reinfecting. More like 2 separate infections, one from each strain.

That seems really unlikely on a large scale

Got some Mexican tonight, about 70% played by the rules. Some were wearing gloves, not masks (weird), but the obnoxious ones were the no nothing group. One lady wanted to go in the restruant. Dirt bag