Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby The Dude » Tue May 05, 2020 23:41:34

Maybe start getting those antibody tests: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/health/g ... index.html

They also found genetic evidence that supports suspicions the virus was infecting people in Europe, the US and elsewhere weeks or even months before the first official cases were reported in January and February. It will be impossible to find the "first" patient in any country, Balloux said.


And a reaction to the report today

"All viruses naturally mutate. Mutations in themselves are not a bad thing and there is nothing to suggest SARS-CoV-2 is mutating faster or slower than expected. So far we cannot say whether SARS-CoV-2 is becoming more or less lethal and contagious," Balloux said. "Just because these studies tell us these mutations are quickly spreading or becoming dominant doesn't mean anything except we know it happened. It doesn't actually tell us anything about what's happening biologically," Warmbrod told CNN.
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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby heyeaglefn » Tue May 05, 2020 23:45:43

I still think I had it in December.

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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby jerseyhoya » Tue May 05, 2020 23:47:02

I was in New Orleans last week of January for work and was sick for a bit after that. I'm hoping I test positive when this shit is more available.

Had a high fever, though was congested, so probably not.

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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby The Dude » Tue May 05, 2020 23:48:11

I had a fever and the weird red eye thing after travelling twice
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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby 1 » Tue May 05, 2020 23:58:40

heyeaglefn wrote:I still think I had it in December.
Fine. You wanna act like you're two? I'll act like I'm one.

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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby Bucky » Wed May 06, 2020 11:18:12

I hope you guys are right. I hope almost everybody already had it and has the antibodies. In fact that's my greatest hope at this point.

i think the antibody serology test, once deemed accurate, will be our path to victory.

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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby Bucky » Wed May 06, 2020 11:18:56

a windfall for the turnpike

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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby The Dude » Wed May 06, 2020 11:21:31

Yeah it really seems like it's our best hope right now. It just SEEMS that since they know it was here in February, it's unlikely they found the two first people that had it, so we would be looking at even prior to that that people here had it. That would be at least two full months of this spreading with no restrictions in place, so it really SEEMS like a massive amount of people would have been exposed to it.

I'm capitalizing "seems" bc I'm an idiot with this stuff, so it's what my amateur brain is trying to sort out. I know there must be pieces I'm not taking into account
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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby heyeaglefn » Wed May 06, 2020 11:24:01

Well yeah it would be very good news if millions already had it, it would mean it is way more contagious then we thought but also the mortality rate would drop big time.

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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby Eem » Wed May 06, 2020 11:42:20

The Dude wrote:Yeah it really seems like it's our best hope right now. It just SEEMS that since they know it was here in February, it's unlikely they found the two first people that had it, so we would be looking at even prior to that that people here had it. That would be at least two full months of this spreading with no restrictions in place, so it really SEEMS like a massive amount of people would have been exposed to it.

I'm capitalizing "seems" bc I'm an idiot with this stuff, so it's what my amateur brain is trying to sort out. I know there must be pieces I'm not taking into account

I don't think this is all that hard to understand, so you're not giving yourself enough credit. It's basic math.

Fauci himself has said that he thinks we've caught and are catching a mere fraction of the total infections. It's clear this thing was spreading -- at the bare minimum -- on the West Coast and in NYC in January. The antibody tests in big California cities think as many as 50X the total cases weren't ever caught

The question now is this: why did California never approach hospitals being overwhelmed even when it was spreading unmitigated and undetected, while NYC got killed? I don't know if we'll ever know the answer.
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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby Bucky » Wed May 06, 2020 11:45:25

kale inhibits the virus

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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby Uncle Milty » Wed May 06, 2020 11:46:03

Eem wrote:
The Dude wrote:Yeah it really seems like it's our best hope right now. It just SEEMS that since they know it was here in February, it's unlikely they found the two first people that had it, so we would be looking at even prior to that that people here had it. That would be at least two full months of this spreading with no restrictions in place, so it really SEEMS like a massive amount of people would have been exposed to it.

I'm capitalizing "seems" bc I'm an idiot with this stuff, so it's what my amateur brain is trying to sort out. I know there must be pieces I'm not taking into account

I don't think this is all that hard to understand, so you're not giving yourself enough credit. It's basic math.

Fauci himself has said that he thinks we've caught and are catching a mere fraction of the total infections. It's clear this thing was spreading -- at the bare minimum -- on the West Coast and in NYC in January. The antibody tests in big California cities think as many as 50X the total cases weren't ever caught

The question now is this: why did California never approach hospitals being overwhelmed even when it was spreading unmitigated and undetected, while NYC got killed? I don't know if we'll ever know the answer.

That might give some credence to the 2 different strains idea. West coast started with and/or maintained the original strain longer while NYC/East Coast was hit with the mutated strain earlier.
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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby Eem » Wed May 06, 2020 11:48:00

It could also be climate. There are so many folks saying "LOOK AT BRAZIL AND MEXICO, CLIMATE DOES NOTHING!" when it's likely way more nuanced. Climate probably DOES help, it just doesn't kill the virus completely
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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby jamiethekiller » Wed May 06, 2020 11:49:18

To eems point and uncle miltys: Maybe it was a mutation somewhere along the way that made NYC much worse. The virus in SF coulda been the one in China(Beijing/Shanghai) and the one in NY could have been the Italian/Spain mutation.

Beats me. But if it's the same strain and deaths weren't sky rocketing then I'd say that people really didn't have the covid19 virus and we're just regular sick.(I know that's a fucked up sentence)

Edit: I type slow apparently
Last edited by jamiethekiller on Wed May 06, 2020 11:51:55, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby The B1G Piece » Wed May 06, 2020 11:50:11

Eem wrote:It could also be climate. There are so many folks saying "LOOK AT BRAZIL AND MEXICO, CLIMATE DOES NOTHING!" when it's likely way more nuanced. Climate probably DOES help, it just doesn't kill the virus completely

I certainly think climate is a big factor. The problem in Brazil and Mexico is they're countries with poor healthcare, corrupt governments and a lot more people living in poverty.

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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby Uncle Milty » Wed May 06, 2020 11:51:11

Eem wrote:It could also be climate. There are so many folks saying "LOOK AT BRAZIL AND MEXICO, CLIMATE DOES NOTHING!" when it's likely way more nuanced. Climate probably DOES help, it just doesn't kill the virus completely

Climate's a good consideration too. Along with lifestyle differences between NYC and pretty much the rest of the country.
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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby JUburton » Wed May 06, 2020 11:52:41

A different strain seems unlikely to me. It's probably some mix of better early west coast response, climate, and population density. NYC was a perfect storm of being a destination for world travel, poor climate potentially, a bad early response, and massive population density. Going to be very hard to tease it all out.

I am not anything close to an expert but it looks like strong distancing is enough to severely drop cases in non-concentrated areas, maybe enough that people can have normalish/somewhat distanced life for a while. It's not enough alone in more concentrated areas though it obviously has some strong effects on spread. Our area needs continued distancing and a shitload more testing.
Last edited by JUburton on Wed May 06, 2020 11:54:53, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby jamiethekiller » Wed May 06, 2020 11:54:28

Population density doesn't drive why Spain and Italy have had a similar situation to NYC.

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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby JUburton » Wed May 06, 2020 11:56:26

jamiethekiller wrote:Population density doesn't drive why Spain and Italy have had a similar situation to NYC.
There are just so many variables you can't isolate for them all. Age, population health, regional response etc. Hopefully someone can synthesize all the data.

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Re: Covid-19 - Opening gates. Find higher ground.

Unread postby CalvinBall » Wed May 06, 2020 11:56:55

Three days in a row with under 1k positive cases in PA. 94 deaths however.

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