Bucky wrote:kale inhibits the virus

JUburton wrote:A different strain seems unlikely to me. It's probably some mix of better early west coast response, climate, and population density. NYC was a perfect storm of being a destination for world travel, poor climate potentially, a bad early response, and massive population density. Going to be very hard to tease it all out.

I am not anything close to an expert but it looks like strong distancing is enough to severely drop cases in non-concentrated areas, maybe enough that people can have normalish/somewhat distanced life for a while. It's not enough alone in more concentrated areas though it obviously has some strong effects on spread. Our area needs continued distancing and a shitload more testing.

heyeaglefn wrote:

JUburton wrote:A different strain seems unlikely to me. It's probably some mix of better early west coast response, climate, and population density. NYC was a perfect storm of being a destination for world travel, poor climate potentially, a bad early response, and massive population density. Going to be very hard to tease it all out.

I am not anything close to an expert but it looks like strong distancing is enough to severely drop cases in non-concentrated areas, maybe enough that people can have normalish/somewhat distanced life for a while. It's not enough alone in more concentrated areas though it obviously has some strong effects on spread. Our area needs continued distancing and a shitload more testing.

The two strains make a lot of sense, I thought there were already multiple articles posted that they did identify a different strain in Europe vs China?

Squire wrote:Is everybody else's FB feed replete with multiple link posts about The Plandemic Movie featuring Judy Mikovits?

azrider wrote:still undecided about migrating over to facebook. been banking on the myspace comeback for a while now. not ready to cut my losses and move on yet.

JUburton wrote:

heyeaglefn wrote:

JUburton wrote:A different strain seems unlikely to me. It's probably some mix of better early west coast response, climate, and population density. NYC was a perfect storm of being a destination for world travel, poor climate potentially, a bad early response, and massive population density. Going to be very hard to tease it all out.

I am not anything close to an expert but it looks like strong distancing is enough to severely drop cases in non-concentrated areas, maybe enough that people can have normalish/somewhat distanced life for a while. It's not enough alone in more concentrated areas though it obviously has some strong effects on spread. Our area needs continued distancing and a shitload more testing.

The two strains make a lot of sense, I thought there were already multiple articles posted that they did identify a different strain in Europe vs China?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/r ... story.html

Viruses are going to have quite a few genetic differences and yet still be functionally the same virus. This story refers to a difference on the spike protein that infiltrates cells that the researchers hypothesize made one strain more contagious. But the two strains both circulated on the west coast and rose and fell together.

"Though the mutated form has become the dominant strain, that could be a consequence of a “founder effect,” Hanage said.

When the mutated version arrived in northern Italy, an older and more susceptible population was unable to contain it. “It’s the fox that got into the henhouse,” Hanage said."

Monkeyboy wrote:

JUburton wrote:

heyeaglefn wrote:

JUburton wrote:A different strain seems unlikely to me. It's probably some mix of better early west coast response, climate, and population density. NYC was a perfect storm of being a destination for world travel, poor climate potentially, a bad early response, and massive population density. Going to be very hard to tease it all out.

I am not anything close to an expert but it looks like strong distancing is enough to severely drop cases in non-concentrated areas, maybe enough that people can have normalish/somewhat distanced life for a while. It's not enough alone in more concentrated areas though it obviously has some strong effects on spread. Our area needs continued distancing and a shitload more testing.

The two strains make a lot of sense, I thought there were already multiple articles posted that they did identify a different strain in Europe vs China?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/r ... story.html

Viruses are going to have quite a few genetic differences and yet still be functionally the same virus. This story refers to a difference on the spike protein that infiltrates cells that the researchers hypothesize made one strain more contagious. But the two strains both circulated on the west coast and rose and fell together.

"Though the mutated form has become the dominant strain, that could be a consequence of a “founder effect,” Hanage said.

When the mutated version arrived in northern Italy, an older and more susceptible population was unable to contain it. “It’s the fox that got into the henhouse,” Hanage said."

The spike protein is a pretty big deal wrt the virus' ability to spread within and between bodies. It could explain higher contagion AND higher death rates.

JUburton wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:

JUburton wrote:

heyeaglefn wrote:

JUburton wrote:A different strain seems unlikely to me. It's probably some mix of better early west coast response, climate, and population density. NYC was a perfect storm of being a destination for world travel, poor climate potentially, a bad early response, and massive population density. Going to be very hard to tease it all out.

I am not anything close to an expert but it looks like strong distancing is enough to severely drop cases in non-concentrated areas, maybe enough that people can have normalish/somewhat distanced life for a while. It's not enough alone in more concentrated areas though it obviously has some strong effects on spread. Our area needs continued distancing and a shitload more testing.

The two strains make a lot of sense, I thought there were already multiple articles posted that they did identify a different strain in Europe vs China?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/r ... story.html

Viruses are going to have quite a few genetic differences and yet still be functionally the same virus. This story refers to a difference on the spike protein that infiltrates cells that the researchers hypothesize made one strain more contagious. But the two strains both circulated on the west coast and rose and fell together.

"Though the mutated form has become the dominant strain, that could be a consequence of a “founder effect,” Hanage said.

When the mutated version arrived in northern Italy, an older and more susceptible population was unable to contain it. “It’s the fox that got into the henhouse,” Hanage said."

The spike protein is a pretty big deal wrt the virus' ability to spread within and between bodies. It could explain higher contagion AND higher death rates.

It could but its a huge jump from 'there was a genetic change' to 'this specific genetic change increased spread and morbidity/mortality'.

Partisan gap on COVID in CNBC battleground poll:

Rs v Ds on whether these activities are safe *right now*:

Restaurant dining

70% R v 5% D

Bars

52% R v 4% D

Flying

46% R v 5% D

Mass transit

40% R v 2% D

*Large sporting events*

37% R v 2% D

CFP wrote:We all knew this was the path we were heading down. Trump is expected to publicly begin questioning the number of deaths, saying they're fake: https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus ... 5fb34.html

JUburton wrote:
And it's so pernicious because it isn't SARS-like. It doesn't kill 10% of people and doesn't spread by symptomatic people alone. It's such a bastard because it spreads secretly and widely and doesn't kill that many, percentage wise.

Monkeyboy wrote:

JUburton wrote:
And it's so pernicious because it isn't SARS-like. It doesn't kill 10% of people and doesn't spread by symptomatic people alone. It's such a bastard because it spreads secretly and widely and doesn't kill that many, percentage wise.

It could do all of those things AND kill at a MERS or SARS rate. High death rates only slow the virus when the incubation period is short because we can trace it and get rid of it more easily. The virus could maintain all the things that make it difficult (large number of infected with no symptoms, long incubation period, etc) and still kill a lot more people. This virus is pretty close to a perfect storm, but it could get a lot worse.