You Know, the Thing: A New Politics Thread

by **pacino** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 19:32:28

i mean there is a really significant chance that Trump wins a second term while losing by 5-7 million votes

by **06hawkalum** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 19:50:18

pacino wrote:i mean there is a really significant chance that Trump wins a second term while losing by 5-7 million votes

Nah, a tanked economy + dead bodies piling up in the streets this spring ensure that won’t happen. Biden will crush Trump in the swing states.

by **The Dude** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 19:52:41

I think an election happening normally is very optimistic at this point. I can’t even picture what the country will look like in even 2 months

by **06hawkalum** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 19:59:34

The Dude wrote:I think an election happening normally is very optimistic at this point. I can’t even picture what the country will look like in even 2 months

There will probably be a lull by the fall. Plus, if people can shop at grocery stores, they can certainly go to polling stations.

by **Rockinghorse** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 20:23:44

Maybe unpopular or radical opinion, but I don't think Nov 3 will be a Coronavirus election. It will either have receded enough or become part of our normal day-to-day life that Trump will claim he beat it and tons of voters will basically agree. That said, there will be plenty of time for him to fuck up other major things (economy for sure) that might doom him in a fair-ish election.

by **JUburton** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 20:37:12

I said last week that no matter how bad he personally fucks it up its going to be better by fall and he's going to win. Hope I'm wrong.

by **Monkeyboy** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 20:46:15

06hawkalum wrote:
The Dude wrote:I think an election happening normally is very optimistic at this point. I can’t even picture what the country will look like in even 2 months

There will probably be a lull by the fall. Plus, if people can shop at grocery stores, they can certainly go to polling stations.

This assumes communities will be affected equally, which they won't. Urban areas are going to be much worse off than rural areas and there will be less fear of going to the polls in rural areas.

Add to that all the other shenanigans they'll be able to pull off because of this crisis masking their efforts and I think this getting out of control definitely helps Trump. If he's competent on the corona front in the two months before the election, I think this virus will help him much more than hurt him given the other things I mentioned.

by **Monkeyboy** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 20:47:51

JUburton wrote:I said last week that no matter how bad he personally fucks it up its going to be better by fall and he's going to win. Hope I'm wrong.

Yeh, he will have been in charge as we made our way through the worst of it. People will be relieved.

by **jerseyhoya** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 21:06:32

JUburton wrote:I said last week that no matter how bad he personally fucks it up its going to be better by fall and he's going to win. Hope I'm wrong.

Even if it doesn't get as terrible as it could, it takes some shine off the economy. And if it gets genuinely bad, even if things are better by the fall, Trump loses some of his other managerial arguments.

If the election was a month ago, I think Trump would have very probably won (Dems being divided being a big reason). If the election was today, Trump would lose by Obama-McCain levels.

Biden has real underlying strengths in the PA/MI/WI trio that I think make the 'Trump could lose by many millions of votes but still win' fear at least somewhat less likely.

I would've bet on Dem nominee over Trump from inauguration up until about the start of January. Partially because I don't know if Bernie was a great candidate, and as he gained I got skeptical, but more because of the underlying economic strength and Trump being in a better position than it seemed possible for his dumb self to be in. I am very much back on the generic Dem side of things (though long way to go). Oddly enough, due to something that is a bit Trump's fault (he certainly hasn't helped so far, and seems poised to make it worse in other ways moving forward), but largely not and would've been an awful thing for the country in death toll & economic impact no matter who was president.

by **Uncle Milty** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 21:19:24

Hope the firm of Scott, Scott, Sasse and Graham drink so much celebrating their moral victory that all 4 shit themselves in public.

by **Bucky** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 21:58:14

i wonder if there's sort of a doppelganger 2016 effect that can happen in 2020. In 2016 we allegedly had a lot of folks who wouldn't publicly vote for trump but once the curtain closed did. I wonder if now there's who still publicly say they support him but will change their tune in the booth because they see what a disaster he is??

by **The Dude** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 22:03:38

06hawkalum wrote:
The Dude wrote:I think an election happening normally is very optimistic at this point. I can’t even picture what the country will look like in even 2 months

There will probably be a lull by the fall. Plus, if people can shop at grocery stores, they can certainly go to polling stations.

Yeah, and one person can shop for a bunch of people. Many think it will spike again in the fall

by **The Savior** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 22:14:20

Dems problem is how good of a leader cuomo has been during all of this.

by **Uncle Milty** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 22:20:33

The Savior wrote:Dems problem is how good of a leader cuomo has been during all of this.

by **JFLNYC** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 22:39:54

The Dude wrote:
06hawkalum wrote:
The Dude wrote:I think an election happening normally is very optimistic at this point. I can’t even picture what the country will look like in even 2 months

There will probably be a lull by the fall. Plus, if people can shop at grocery stores, they can certainly go to polling stations.

Yeah, and one person can shop for a bunch of people. Many think it will spike again in the fall

Are you suggesting that one person couldn’t vote for a bunch of people?

by **Werthless** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 22:43:48

The Savior wrote:Dems problem is how good of a leader cuomo has been during all of this.

I fail to see how that's a problem.

by **Monkeyboy** » Wed Mar 25, 2020 23:06:40

Bucky wrote:i wonder if there's sort of a doppelganger 2016 effect that can happen in 2020. In 2016 we allegedly had a lot of folks who wouldn't publicly vote for trump but once the curtain closed did. I wonder if now there's who still publicly say they support him but will change their tune in the booth because they see what a disaster he is??

I've wondered the same thing.

by **The Savior** » Thu Mar 26, 2020 07:17:53

Werthless wrote:
The Savior wrote:Dems problem is how good of a leader cuomo has been during all of this.

I fail to see how that's a problem.

Rally around the guy leading the nation to a certain extent through its biggest challenge ever.

by **Bucky** » Thu Mar 26, 2020 07:36:03

you don't rally around someone proven to be untrustworthy and incompetent.

by **heyeaglefn** » Thu Mar 26, 2020 08:43:22

Cuomos press conference are well organized but outside of that not sure it's proven he's doing that great of a job.

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