Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby Uncle Milty » Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:44:54

CalvinBall wrote:Think he is saying keep your hopes up BUT Biden looks like he is going to be overtaken by Warren so we may not make that mistake.

No. To JUB's point it is acknowledging sexism in others.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby BatFlipsFTW » Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:50:09

Augustus wrote:
BatFlipsFTW wrote:
td11 wrote:There is never money for anything except war, subsidies for oil companies, militarizing the police, you know, things that aren't "terrible public policy."

Doing good and kind things for your citizens like forgiving unfair school debt and giving them free healthcare is bad because this graph here says it costs a lot

Also congrats to the 40 year olds of the board who've successfully paid off 20k in debt. Kids these days are coming out w 100k debt regardless of major. But its unfair because you had to suffer once so why shouldn't these kids


What happens when they fall back in debt because no one knows how to spend within their means?


The US median income is $31,786 for individuals and $48,150 for households. Please describe what "spending within their means" looks like for these folks, given the soaring costs of housing, health care, child care, etc.


Buy generic brand cereal and limit the avocado toast.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby JUburton » Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:54:02

I think that's a bit of an issue regarding women's electability as women are as likely to win as men when they run for lower office. And second, vastly more people think that OTHER people think that women are less electable than people actually think that. Warren is fairly close to Biden on Trump H2H polls and she polls well with the fabled 'white working class'.

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby pacino » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:31:40

broads, amirite
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby Brantt » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:36:36

Trump will absolutely destroy Warren.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby JUburton » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:37:35

Brantt wrote:Trump will absolutely destroy Warren.
define destroy and lets bet

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby Squire » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:46:14

I don't think Biden has looked good at all. I do think the pack is going to chase him down. That being said if Biden does get the nomination I think every one of the other candidates (save Bernie) would be interested in being his VP pick. Guy is going be 77 if/when he gets the nomination and 78 if/when he gets elected.

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby 06hawkalum » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:47:08

Biden/Abrams is my preferred ticket.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby jamiethekiller » Mon Aug 12, 2019 13:51:59

Trump isn't going to magically get more people to vote for him. He's not going to have more people voting for him this cycle than he had last time. He can double down over and over on his insane statements because its alla bout ensuring those same people come back out and vote for him. Not for him to win 'new' voters.

The only thing that'll ensure that Trump wins again is if Biden is elected. the "far left", aka the majority of young voters, will pack their bags up again. the POC color vote isn't going to turn out for Biden either. His voting history has baggage for years regardless of his policy or viewpoints now. The only people he has coming are the people who have been voting for democrat for 20+ years and will show up to the polls regardless.

Which means that any votes for Biden will easily transfer over to Warren/Sanders.

at least thats how i see/feel it

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby Uncle Milty » Mon Aug 12, 2019 14:35:34

Disagree on how easily Biden votes transfer to Warren/Sanders. Not in extreme numbers but I also think Trump has gained some votes since 2016.

If the Bernie Bros. stay home again for any reason none of it matters in the long run.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby traderdave » Mon Aug 12, 2019 15:02:51

Uncle Milty wrote:I also think Trump has gained some votes since 2016


Probably true. Let that sink in for a minute.

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby azrider » Mon Aug 12, 2019 15:07:01

traderdave wrote:
Uncle Milty wrote:I also think Trump has gained some votes since 2016


Probably true. Let that sink in for a minute.


maybe in the blue states that will still be blue or maybe in the red states that would be red anyway. definitely not in the purple. he's lost those states.

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby Gimpy » Mon Aug 12, 2019 15:20:52

jamiethekiller wrote:Trump isn't going to magically get more people to vote for him. He's not going to have more people voting for him this cycle than he had last time. He can double down over and over on his insane statements because its alla bout ensuring those same people come back out and vote for him. Not for him to win 'new' voters.

The only thing that'll ensure that Trump wins again is if Biden is elected. the "far left", aka the majority of young voters, will pack their bags up again. the POC color vote isn't going to turn out for Biden either. His voting history has baggage for years regardless of his policy or viewpoints now. The only people he has coming are the people who have been voting for democrat for 20+ years and will show up to the polls regardless.

Which means that any votes for Biden will easily transfer over to Warren/Sanders.

at least thats how i see/feel it


I hate the prospect of a Biden presidency, but I’d bet there are a lot of older white folks that would be willing to vote Biden, but wouldn’t be able to stomach voting for anyone more progressive.

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby TenuredVulture » Mon Aug 12, 2019 15:26:22

The linking of Warren and Hillary as similar is lazy analysis. Hillary and Biden have a lot more in common, and what they have in common is more troubling from an electability perspective than what Hillary and Warren share. Biden and Hillary are old fashioned establishment politicians. It has been a long time since being an establishment politician was a real political advantage--perhaps the last time an non-incumbent establishment politician won an election was Bush in 88.

I know people are nervous about Warren's gender, but I disagree it's a huge issue. We did elect a black guy with the middle name Hussein by a pretty comfortable margin in 2008.

Warren seems to be an effective campaigner, and it seems that as people get to know her she can win them over. When you look at the head to head polls, it seems that the percentage of people voting for Trump is steady--around 42-43%. The number voting for the Dem changes, but I think most of that has to do with name recognition. There's definitely a class of voter out there who believes that it is their civic duty to "learn" about candidates before they declare their vote. But since Bernie and Biden are polling at roughly the same level against Trump, I doubt many of the ones who are undecided in a Trump/Warren race will vote for Trump.

Perhaps this is the most optimistic scenario, but I think Trump ends up with under 45% of the popular vote, which is enough to overcome just about any electoral college or Russian shenanigans.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby thephan » Mon Aug 12, 2019 15:43:24

I had my first "did you know today". Today's did you know is that Muslims are exempt from being required to have insurance under Obamacare, and they're also exempt from paying the penalty if they do not elect insurance.

But I asked for the source, I got 'well I got this from Jenny Ethel'. And I said where did Jenny Ethel get it? And the response was nothing. I tried to explain the existence of these ridiculous planted fake news stories, and how the Russian bots spin it up and heave it out, and then it gets thrown on unsuspecting people. That discussion went nowhere. I appealed to logic to say if it sounds ridiculous it probably is. That discussion went nowhere. I fell back on why would the US exempt a single religion, when we're bound to not take religion into account in our laws? At that point the conversation had run its course.

Next up was how Jimmy Carter screwed her after her Union signed a 3 year deal calling increases at 3%, then Carter lifted the cap and she got screwed. And then the electric company raise the electric rates 3%. And that is that. She'll never vote Democrat again ever because how did Jimmy Carter held her down in the electric company beat her up all the cuz of his laws. I've decided to talk about how damn hot it is outside here in Florida rather than get anywhere near any of this other crazy.

by the way, if anybody has any idea what she's talking about, I'd love to understand. She has to have some incident that happened under his tenure that she associates with all of this stuff. I honestly would just like validation that she's not insane. That is to say that I would like some certainty that my that my mother in law will not be coming to live with me anytime soon out of medical necessity.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby Trent Steele » Mon Aug 12, 2019 15:59:20

Gimpy wrote:
jamiethekiller wrote:Trump isn't going to magically get more people to vote for him. He's not going to have more people voting for him this cycle than he had last time. He can double down over and over on his insane statements because its alla bout ensuring those same people come back out and vote for him. Not for him to win 'new' voters.

The only thing that'll ensure that Trump wins again is if Biden is elected. the "far left", aka the majority of young voters, will pack their bags up again. the POC color vote isn't going to turn out for Biden either. His voting history has baggage for years regardless of his policy or viewpoints now. The only people he has coming are the people who have been voting for democrat for 20+ years and will show up to the polls regardless.

Which means that any votes for Biden will easily transfer over to Warren/Sanders.

at least thats how i see/feel it


I hate the prospect of a Biden presidency, but I’d bet there are a lot of older white folks that would be willing to vote Biden, but wouldn’t be able to stomach voting for anyone more progressive.


Agree re old people and Biden. Completely disagree about PoC and Biden. He is by far the most popular Dem candidate among African-Americans. Seriously underestimating the impact in that community of him serving as VP under Obama. Also underestimating the fact that, generally speaking, African-Americans Dems are significantly more moderate/conservative than White Liberal Dems.

It's not Biden that needs to worry about turning out PoC support....its Bernie, Warren, and Buttegig.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby Augustus » Mon Aug 12, 2019 18:59:53

Trent Steele wrote:
Gimpy wrote:
jamiethekiller wrote:Trump isn't going to magically get more people to vote for him. He's not going to have more people voting for him this cycle than he had last time. He can double down over and over on his insane statements because its alla bout ensuring those same people come back out and vote for him. Not for him to win 'new' voters.

The only thing that'll ensure that Trump wins again is if Biden is elected. the "far left", aka the majority of young voters, will pack their bags up again. the POC color vote isn't going to turn out for Biden either. His voting history has baggage for years regardless of his policy or viewpoints now. The only people he has coming are the people who have been voting for democrat for 20+ years and will show up to the polls regardless.

Which means that any votes for Biden will easily transfer over to Warren/Sanders.

at least thats how i see/feel it


I hate the prospect of a Biden presidency, but I’d bet there are a lot of older white folks that would be willing to vote Biden, but wouldn’t be able to stomach voting for anyone more progressive.


Agree re old people and Biden. Completely disagree about PoC and Biden. He is by far the most popular Dem candidate among African-Americans. Seriously underestimating the impact in that community of him serving as VP under Obama. Also underestimating the fact that, generally speaking, African-Americans Dems are significantly more moderate/conservative than White Liberal Dems.

It's not Biden that needs to worry about turning out PoC support....its Bernie, Warren, and Buttegig.


He may do very well in the primary among people of color, but I doubt he'll inspire turnout in the general election. Hillary had the same issue-she crushed Bernie among PoC in the primary (where voters skew older), but African American turnout declined in the general from 2012.

Also, if you're looking for where Trump could pick up more support, look at the 4.5 million Gary Johnson voters. A lot of these guys were National Review, Weekly Standard never Trump types who have now fallen in MAGA line because the libs are mean to them or something.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby The Savior » Mon Aug 12, 2019 19:14:42

Brantt wrote:Trump will absolutely destroy Warren.


I think I agree with you. Probably not as strong to say destroy but think he beats her.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby 06hawkalum » Mon Aug 12, 2019 20:25:43

Brantt wrote:Trump will absolutely destroy Warren.


Nope, because Warren isn't going to be the nominee.

No amount of gaffes is going to cost Biden the nomination.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby swishnicholson » Mon Aug 12, 2019 21:14:20

thephan wrote:Next up was how Jimmy Carter screwed her after her Union signed a 3 year deal calling increases at 3%, then Carter lifted the cap and she got screwed. And then the electric company raise the electric rates 3%. And that is that. She'll never vote Democrat again ever because how did Jimmy Carter held her down in the electric company beat her up all the cuz of his laws. I've decided to talk about how damn hot it is outside here in Florida rather than get anywhere near any of this other crazy.

by the way, if anybody has any idea what she's talking about, I'd love to understand. She has to have some incident that happened under his tenure that she associates with all of this stuff. I honestly would just like validation that she's not insane. That is to say that I would like some certainty that my that my mother in law will not be coming to live with me anytime soon out of medical necessity.


I presume it's some reference to this Carter's wage and price controls

and this Carter's energy plan. So at least there is some basis in reality, though it seems doubtful the personal effect was quite so personal as she imagined then, and still does.

PURPA's Terms



End of Promotional Rate Structures

As one part of his National Energy Plan, debated by Congress in 1977 and 1978, President Carter suggested changes to the way power companies charged for electricity. Typically, utilities offered customers a "rate structure" that encouraged them to use increasing amounts of electricity. It did this by charging higher prices for the first increments of electricity used by customers--for example the first 50 kWh--with subsequent increments costing less per unit. One New York utility in 1973, for example, charged 4.4 cents per kWh for each of the first 50 kWh of use, but only 3.9 cents for the next 60 kWh, 3.4 cents for the subsequent 120 kWh, and only 2.8 cents for each unit greater than 240 kWh.

During the golden years of the utility industry, this "promotional" rate structure made sense, as utility costs continuously declined and as growing demand pushed costs still lower. But with technological progress limited and energy costs climbing, power companies no longer could achieve lower costs. Moreover, the rate structure encouraged people to use more electricity at a time when conservation was becoming the nation's watchword.

Signed into law in November 1978, the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) focused on eliminating promotional rate structures except when they could be justified by the cost structure of utility companies. In most cases, they could not be so justified, so the law required state commissions to order utilities to develop new rate structures. Most utility managers did not worry too much about the law, and they were able to comply with it. In fact, some utility companies executives thought they got off fairly easily with this provision, being more worried about other terms of Carter's energy plan that required them to convert from burning oil to coal and prohibitions against the use of natural gas.
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