Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby JUburton » Wed Aug 14, 2019 09:08:16

lotta pundits in here

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:28:28

Market volatility seems to be getting worse. I think a significant chunk of Trump's support comes from people seeing their 401k balances inflate. That looks to be over for the time being, and it's not hard to make the case that unlike most economic slow downs, Trump's trade war is an unforced error, and we might find ourselves with a recession combined with rising prices. (Though this won't I don't think be like the 70s, since oil prices are fine.) Let's hope this isn't a 2008 type event, as no one needs to go through that again. But given deregulation and lack of enforcement, who knows what potential bombs are out there--even a correction in market prices might inflict pain on people who have

Given Warren's understanding of the finance world and her adversarial relationship with it, she may be well poised to take maximum advantage of all this.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:35:11

TomatoPie wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:
Wolfgang622 wrote:I think many people on this board seriously underestimate Elizabeth Warren. She is a woman of enormous dignity but who also speaks cogently and persuasively and authentically - despite her Harvard pedigree - on working people's issues.

And, more to the point, her ideas are the best and most well-thought out.


With all due respect, Moz, I think you seriously underestimate the visceral negative reaction Warren engenders outside her core constituency. It’s not fair, it’s not right, but it’s there.


Agree 100%. She's won my respect even though she is well left of my views. I'd take her over Trump 100 times out of 100. But to many Americans, she is that self-righteous preachy schoolmarm; Hillary 2.0 except she probably hasn't killed most of her enemies.


I think this is lazy analysis. Sure, there are lots of insecure old guys who prefer Biden to Warren. However, are there really many people who would rank the candidates Biden-Trump-Warren? I have a hard time believing that.

The test of Warren's electability is whether she wins the nomination. Full stop. The collective Democratic electorate is smarter than pundits and message board posters (and political scientists) at determining which candidate is electable. The evidence for this claim is ironically the election of Donald Trump, and I'd include Obama's election as well. But you can go all the way back to 1960. In those days, primaries didn't count, but party elites still worried a great deal about electability. Many elites believed that Kennedy, as an Irish Catholic was unelectable. In order to counter this claim, Kennedy entered a handful of primaries in places thought to have a high level of suspicion of the Roman Church. Kennedy's victory in the WVa primary was seen as sufficient evidence that he was in fact electable.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby heyeaglefn » Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:59:34

TenuredVulture wrote:Market volatility seems to be getting worse. I think a significant chunk of Trump's support comes from people seeing their 401k balances inflate. That looks to be over for the time being, and it's not hard to make the case that unlike most economic slow downs, Trump's trade war is an unforced error, and we might find ourselves with a recession combined with rising prices. (Though this won't I don't think be like the 70s, since oil prices are fine.) Let's hope this isn't a 2008 type event, as no one needs to go through that again. But given deregulation and lack of enforcement, who knows what potential bombs are out there--even a correction in market prices might inflict pain on people who have

Given Warren's understanding of the finance world and her adversarial relationship with it, she may be well poised to take maximum advantage of all this.

I feel like you have posted about the stock market many times before, and although this time may be different, it also may just be like the other times where it really has zero impact on Trump.

We are due for a recession, and if it doesn't happen before 2020 it doesn't matter who the President is because it will happen sometime between 2020-2024. Warren may be a financial Wizard but there is only so much a President can/should do.

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:57:45

heyeaglefn wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:Market volatility seems to be getting worse. I think a significant chunk of Trump's support comes from people seeing their 401k balances inflate. That looks to be over for the time being, and it's not hard to make the case that unlike most economic slow downs, Trump's trade war is an unforced error, and we might find ourselves with a recession combined with rising prices. (Though this won't I don't think be like the 70s, since oil prices are fine.) Let's hope this isn't a 2008 type event, as no one needs to go through that again. But given deregulation and lack of enforcement, who knows what potential bombs are out there--even a correction in market prices might inflict pain on people who have

Given Warren's understanding of the finance world and her adversarial relationship with it, she may be well poised to take maximum advantage of all this.

I feel like you have posted about the stock market many times before, and although this time may be different, it also may just be like the other times where it really has zero impact on Trump.

We are due for a recession, and if it doesn't happen before 2020 it doesn't matter who the President is because it will happen sometime between 2020-2024. Warren may be a financial Wizard but there is only so much a President can/should do.


I'm not sure zero impact is correct, though I agree Trump's approval ratings (in both directions) have been uniquely insensitive to the economy or the market or really anything else. In part, there may be due to a recent phenomenon where partisan attachments have a strong influence on how we perceive the economy.

However, so far, the economy has been strong enough that we have not seen what impact, if any, certain negative economic effects will have on Trump's approval ratings. Given the partisanship issue, it might make sense to consider ways in which the economy directly effects people. Given that the market is down 600 points today after a recession warning, one visible element is a 401k balance. I imagine there are a lot of late 50s/early 60s white guys out there who don't care much about immigrants or abortion or such, and are not enthusiastic about Trump, but who like what they've seen so far in their 401k balance. Retirees may also have exposure to the market that might make them vulnerable to a bear market that lasts a year or so. If however they see in their next several statements that balance dropping, that residual support could weaken or even evaporate. If the Democratic candidate is able to make a plausible account that Trump's mismanagement of the economy has made it worse, that could have a significant impact on the election.

There are some other issues that might make this impact even greater--has the retirement industry done the kind of things that the mortgage industry did before--that is, sell inappropriate products to people who didn't really understand what they were buying? Consider again this 60 year old who plans to retire in the next 5 years--did some "financial planner" sell that person investments that were far too risky given the time horizon? Here's where the politics enter into it in a way that could really benefit someone like Warren (far more than Biden or lots of other Democrats who are notoriously friendly to the financial industry). I would guess the retirement planning industry is poorly regulated, and what regulations that are out there are poorly enforced. So all of a sudden, you have a correction that if you're appropriately invested won't make a huge difference in your life--maybe instead of the Alfa Romeo you settle for a Miata. But instead, you've been convinced to buy more risky investments. As long as the market is going up, you probably don't really care that the financial planner made a nice fat commission on all that. But all of the sudden, the market is down say 15%--not a ridiculous amount, but substantial. You check your portfolio though and find out your investments are down by 30%. You might be a little unhappy about that. Warren I think is well placed to take advantage of that anger.

There are other economic issues that effect people differently. For example, my 60 year old white guy cares about inflation, but perhaps not so much about unemployment. By contrast, a new college graduate might welcome a bit of inflation if jobs are plentiful--that makes student loan payments more affordable.

To be sure, this all has to happen in the next 12 months or so to have an impact on the election.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby momadance » Wed Aug 14, 2019 13:40:05

Steve King wrote:"What if we went back through all the family trees and just pulled out anyone who was a product of rape or incest? Would there be any population of the world left if we did that? Considering all the wars and all the rapes and pillages that happened throughout all these different nations, I know that I can't say that I was not a part of a product of that."


Image

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby thephan » Wed Aug 14, 2019 14:39:03

I assume it is old news, but Ken Cuccinelli remains the garage virginian's know him to be.
yawn

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby thephan » Wed Aug 14, 2019 14:43:47

Steve King has not been in the news lately so he throws out there that rape and incest are the foundations of civilization.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby traderdave » Wed Aug 14, 2019 14:45:29

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury. My client doesn't not deny sexual intercourse with that woman and, yeah, maybe it was not quite 100% consensual. But my client was simply doing his part to maintain the world's population. This man is not a criminal. He is a hero.

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby thephan » Wed Aug 14, 2019 16:10:12

Trump on the market: it's the trade team, its the fed, it's Germany.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby swishnicholson » Wed Aug 14, 2019 16:13:02

thephan wrote:Steve King has not been in the news lately so he throws out there that rape and incest are the foundations of civilization.


I doubt too many are arguing that he might be the product of incest.
"No woman can call herself free who does not control her own body."

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby Werthless » Wed Aug 14, 2019 17:52:40

I am sure there are many Biden>Trump>Warren in my family. I would guess about 25% of the men in my extended family.

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby Uncle Milty » Wed Aug 14, 2019 18:48:58

TenuredVulture wrote:
TomatoPie wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:
Wolfgang622 wrote:I think many people on this board seriously underestimate Elizabeth Warren. She is a woman of enormous dignity but who also speaks cogently and persuasively and authentically - despite her Harvard pedigree - on working people's issues.

And, more to the point, her ideas are the best and most well-thought out.


With all due respect, Moz, I think you seriously underestimate the visceral negative reaction Warren engenders outside her core constituency. It’s not fair, it’s not right, but it’s there.


Agree 100%. She's won my respect even though she is well left of my views. I'd take her over Trump 100 times out of 100. But to many Americans, she is that self-righteous preachy schoolmarm; Hillary 2.0 except she probably hasn't killed most of her enemies.


I think this is lazy analysis. Sure, there are lots of insecure old guys who prefer Biden to Warren. However, are there really many people who would rank the candidates Biden-Trump-Warren? I have a hard time believing that.

The test of Warren's electability is whether she wins the nomination. Full stop. The collective Democratic electorate is smarter than pundits and message board posters (and political scientists) at determining which candidate is electable. The evidence for this claim is ironically the election of Donald Trump, and I'd include Obama's election as well. But you can go all the way back to 1960. In those days, primaries didn't count, but party elites still worried a great deal about electability. Many elites believed that Kennedy, as an Irish Catholic was unelectable. In order to counter this claim, Kennedy entered a handful of primaries in places thought to have a high level of suspicion of the Roman Church. Kennedy's victory in the WVa primary was seen as sufficient evidence that he was in fact electable.


Lazy analysis isn't fair. I think most of us share opinions based on the people we know.

I don't think it's Biden, Trump, Warren. It's Biden, stay home, other democrat.

There's no real comparison of Warren to Kennedy. They're on opposite ends of the scale on perception. Let's remember Kennedy won by an incredibly small margin in the popular vote and the gimme southern states from that time are long gone.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Aug 14, 2019 18:56:22

Uncle Milty wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:
TomatoPie wrote:
JFLNYC wrote:
Wolfgang622 wrote:I think many people on this board seriously underestimate Elizabeth Warren. She is a woman of enormous dignity but who also speaks cogently and persuasively and authentically - despite her Harvard pedigree - on working people's issues.

And, more to the point, her ideas are the best and most well-thought out.


With all due respect, Moz, I think you seriously underestimate the visceral negative reaction Warren engenders outside her core constituency. It’s not fair, it’s not right, but it’s there.


Agree 100%. She's won my respect even though she is well left of my views. I'd take her over Trump 100 times out of 100. But to many Americans, she is that self-righteous preachy schoolmarm; Hillary 2.0 except she probably hasn't killed most of her enemies.


I think this is lazy analysis. Sure, there are lots of insecure old guys who prefer Biden to Warren. However, are there really many people who would rank the candidates Biden-Trump-Warren? I have a hard time believing that.

The test of Warren's electability is whether she wins the nomination. Full stop. The collective Democratic electorate is smarter than pundits and message board posters (and political scientists) at determining which candidate is electable. The evidence for this claim is ironically the election of Donald Trump, and I'd include Obama's election as well. But you can go all the way back to 1960. In those days, primaries didn't count, but party elites still worried a great deal about electability. Many elites believed that Kennedy, as an Irish Catholic was unelectable. In order to counter this claim, Kennedy entered a handful of primaries in places thought to have a high level of suspicion of the Roman Church. Kennedy's victory in the WVa primary was seen as sufficient evidence that he was in fact electable.


Lazy analysis isn't fair. I think most of us share opinions based on the people we know.

I don't think it's Biden, Trump, Warren. It's Biden, stay home, other democrat.

There's no real comparison of Warren to Kennedy. They're on opposite ends of the scale on perception. Let's remember Kennedy won by an incredibly small margin in the popular vote and the gimme southern states from that time are long gone.


The Kennedy comparison was merely to say someone who wins primaries is ipso facto electable. That was their original purpose. Not until 1972 did primaries actually count. Trump wasn't supposed to electable and the elites all were behind Jeb, and we know how that turned out.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby Uncle Milty » Wed Aug 14, 2019 19:07:59

Kennedy, Trump, Warren

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Aug 14, 2019 19:11:59

Uncle Milty wrote:Kennedy, Trump, Warren



It seems you're deliberately missing the point. IF Warren wins the primary, that will be proof she's electable. In no other way does she resemble our worst President ever, and our most over rated President ever.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby Uncle Milty » Wed Aug 14, 2019 19:23:41

I think we disagree that winning a primary means the candidate is electable in the general election.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby momadance » Wed Aug 14, 2019 20:09:26

ie Hillary

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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby 06hawkalum » Wed Aug 14, 2019 20:50:47

TenuredVulture wrote:
Uncle Milty wrote:Kennedy, Trump, Warren



It seems you're deliberately missing the point. IF Warren wins the primary, that will be proof she's electable. In no other way does she resemble our worst President ever, and our most over rated President ever.


I know you really want to believe that Warren is electable but your argument is ridiculous.

McGovern
Mondale
Dukakis
Dole
Hillary

All won nominations through the modern primary system. None of them were electable.
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Re: Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Aug 14, 2019 22:04:59

Hillary basically ran unopposed. The fact that Bernie did so well, given that he calls himself a socialist, not a Democrat, should have given everyone pause. No Democrat was going to be Reagan in 84, and no Republican was beating Clinton in 96. For all we know, they were the most electable candidates who ran for the nomination. I might concede the point with Dukakis, but Bush did have Reagan's popularity that was going to be tough to beat no matter who the Democrats nominated.

Keep in mind, electability is a marginal consideration at most. Elections are decided primarily by fundamentals. If the economy weakens probably even if it's just a little bit, Trump loses.
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