I still say:

Revenge is a Dish Best Served Old: Carter/Mondale 2020!

I'm loving the leaky faucet of more rightwingers turning against Trump.

Mooch is never more than a noisebox, but it makes sense to me that George Conway (who may be playing some other long game), Gov Sanford, Mooch, Joe Walsh, and now Montel Williams are canary-in-a-coal-mine trial balloons. Send them out to criticize the Emperor, see how the base reacts.



David Cay Johnston
@DavidCayJ

As a few in @GOP test a slight separation from abject fealty to Trump -- Mark Sanford, Doug Collins, The Mooch -- keep in mind how catsup flows:

Shake and shake the Trump cult bottle
None will come and then a lot’ll

-- with apologies to Ogden Nash (or Richard Armour)

We used to call these trial balloons.

They’re testing to see what happens, concerned with the reaction from their own party. But the testing is new.

Hickenlooper ending his bid for the nomination.

Trump said the Philly shooter “looked like he was having a good time”, whatever that means

I've been predicting this for three years. Someday I'll be right.

https://theweek.com/articles/858707/eve ... eve-doocy-

Letterman apologizes to Trump in 2012 for calling him a racist

https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/1162002980087844864

WELL WE'RE SCREWEDDD

Dunno why the Pod Save people are working with Change Research. Their work from what I've followed is absolutely horrendous.

jerseyhoya wrote:Dunno why the Pod Save people are working with Change Research. Their work from what I've followed is absolutely horrendous.

Guessing the price is right. 538 has them as a C+ with a 0.8pt R bias so what I'm saying is Warren has already won the presidency.

they should stick to bad podcasts

Israel has decided to bar a visit by U.S. congresswomen Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar.

45 mins earlier:

@realDonaldTrump
43m
It would show great weakness if Israel allowed Rep. Omar and Rep.Tlaib to visit. They hate Israel & all Jewish people, & there is nothing that can be said or done to change their minds. Minnesota and Michigan will have a hard time putting them back in office. They are a disgrace!

JUburton wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Dunno why the Pod Save people are working with Change Research. Their work from what I've followed is absolutely horrendous.

Guessing the price is right. 538 has them as a C+ with a 0.8pt R bias so what I'm saying is Warren has already won the presidency.

They were mostly new, and 538 hasn't updated its ratings from last cycle yet. Looking at the gov polls they had 10 in the last week and had Dems winning the governors races in Ohio, South Dakota and Iowa, when they lost all of them. The only close gov race they got 'right' was New Hampshire, but were off by 6 on the margin. On the Senate side a bit better, but they had Tester losing in the last week though I guess only off by 6 on the margin there too, and Montana is a weird state to poll.

This is how they describe the methodology on their latest national Dem primary poll (which had Warren at 26, Bernie at 23, Biden at 23): Change Research surveyed 1,450 self-identified Democratic primary voters. The margin of error as traditionally calculated is ± 3% for the full sample. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. The Bias Correct Engine dynamically delivers large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, ethnicity, and 2016 presidential vote.

I could write many thousands of words about why most public polling is bad, challenges polling faces in an era of low phone response rates, and I do think online polling off robust panels can be almost as good as phone polls. And trying new shit is good and maybe these folks are going to nail things. But I'm deeply skeptical of the amount of self-selection going on here. You need to click through to participate, self-id, etc. That is going to amplify the more 'online' candidates wildly. Also anyone who says they are using a 'Bias Correct Engine' is probably selling hocus pocus shit.

I have no words.

Moocharosa

CFP wrote:Trump said the Philly shooter “looked like he was having a good time”, whatever that means

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
The Philadelphia shooter should never have been allowed to be on the streets. He had a long and very dangerous criminal record. Looked like he was having a good time after his capture, and after wounding so many police. Long sentence - must get much tougher on street crime!
8:59 AM · Aug 15, 2019·Twitter for iPhone

Not going to argue with much there (outside of the nonsensical "good time" comment). Nice job avoiding talking about the elephant in the room, though.

momadance wrote:Israel has decided to bar a visit by U.S. congresswomen Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar.

45 mins earlier:

@realDonaldTrump
43m
It would show great weakness if Israel allowed Rep. Omar and Rep.Tlaib to visit. They hate Israel & all Jewish people, & there is nothing that can be said or done to change their minds. Minnesota and Michigan will have a hard time putting them back in office. They are a disgrace!

I haven’t seen that a decision has yet been made. Where are you seeing it?

JFLNYC wrote:

momadance wrote:Israel has decided to bar a visit by U.S. congresswomen Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar.

45 mins earlier:

@realDonaldTrump
43m
It would show great weakness if Israel allowed Rep. Omar and Rep.Tlaib to visit. They hate Israel & all Jewish people, & there is nothing that can be said or done to change their minds. Minnesota and Michigan will have a hard time putting them back in office. They are a disgrace!

I haven’t seen that a decision has yet been made. Where are you seeing it?

@Reuters
Israel has decided to bar a visit by U.S. congresswomen Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1162010358275629061

Great country

oh yes the classic how can i be relevant and find work trick