Politics Thread: Wear Your SPF and Don't Get Bernie'd

by **Uncle Milty** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 01:20:45

pacino wrote:broads, amirite

6% of voters in a recent Gallup poll agree with you. And that's only the ones actually willing to admit it!

by **traderdave** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 09:25:11

06hawkalum wrote:
Brantt wrote:Trump will absolutely destroy Warren.

Nope, because Warren isn't going to be the nominee.

No amount of gaffes is going to cost Biden the nomination.

This is not meant for you personally but I find it incredible that Biden's primary kryptonite among the pundits/media is "gaffes" when we have a president that says literally whatever the fuck he wants (with a substantial portion of that whatever being misdirection, half truths, and/or flat-out lies) and most of the general public couldn't care less.

by **TenuredVulture** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 09:55:18

traderdave wrote:
06hawkalum wrote:
Brantt wrote:Trump will absolutely destroy Warren.

Nope, because Warren isn't going to be the nominee.

No amount of gaffes is going to cost Biden the nomination.

This is not meant for you personally but I find it incredible that Biden's primary kryptonite among the pundits/media is "gaffes" when we have a president that says literally whatever the fuck he wants (with a substantial portion of that whatever being misdirection, half truths, and/or flat-out lies) and most of the general public couldn't care less.

The media cover Trump like a celebrity. Also, Republicans clearly do not care about competence.

by **Slowhand** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:45:49

Oh boy...

@realDonaldTrump wrote:Curt Schilling, a great pitcher and patriot, is considering a run for Congress in Arizona. Terrific! @foxandfriends

by **CalvinBall** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:46:54

A guy who went to space against a guy who currently resides there would be quite the matchup

by **momadance** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:10:53

Will the ketchup sock make some campaign stumps?

by **pacino** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:19:10

Not in Arizona

Maybe he'll have his check garnished to pay back Rhode Island

by **TenuredVulture** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:29:01

I don't really think Trump loses Texas and Georgia and Utah, and I know we were seriously burned by these kind of things a few years ago, but...

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/ ... e-him.html

It is important that while some of you correctly emphasize the economy as a critical factor in an incumbent's re-election, most models also include Presidential approval ratings.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 15:33:41

TenuredVulture wrote:I don't really think Trump loses Texas and Georgia and Utah, and I know we were seriously burned by these kind of things a few years ago, but...

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/ ... e-him.html

It is important that while some of you correctly emphasize the economy as a critical factor in an incumbent's re-election, most models also include Presidential approval ratings.

Approval rating includes things like, "He's of my party but I think he could be doing a better job" but hides completely what someone might do if asked to vote for the guy in office or the other guy. My non-statistical based guess is that approval rating was more useful as an indicator in the days when there were more truly swing voters. In the hyper-partisan world of today with a tiny sliver of the electorate truly "swing," I don't know that an approval rating in the low 40s means a goddamn thing. To wit: Barack Obama won two terms despite being an "under water" average approval rating across his entire presidency (47.9), and indeed having the lowest average approval rating across his presidency (47.9) of anyone since Jimmy Carter (45.5). Only two other presidents in the group who won second terms had average approval ratings under 50% - Richard Nixon (49), which I am sure is skewed by historically low numbers for him at the bitter end, and George W. Bush, who immediately preceded Obama and was the first president completely of the FOX News age (49.4).

Moreover, Barack Obama's average approval rating during his first term was 49.1%, under water, and yet he was re-elected; and his approval ratings at the comparable portion of his presidency to where Trump is now were worse than Trump's is now:

August 1-7: 42/50
August 8-14: 40/52
August 15-21: 40/53
August 22-28: 40/53
August 29-Sep 4: 42/51

He was in the low 40s for much of 2011. Admittedly, by 2012 election time he was back above water and even into 50+.

We shall see.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 15:41:08

I must say in fairness to TV's point: President Trump has never had a disapproval rating below 50% since he took office except for the first week (47%), and even that was under water.

There are no rules with this dude, throw the rule book out the window.

by **Augustus** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 16:46:19

There are also so many loathsome, inane things about him that many people will voice disapproval based on one quality but still actually vote for him. He creates all of these weird cross cutting cleavages in his base (which is almost all white):

-the pussy grabbing offends evangelicals and white women
-the protectionism alienates farmers, the capitalists, and that weird dork you know who took econ 101 and listens to Ben Shapiro and always wants to talk to you about the Laffer curve
-the nominal criticism of the national security state/foreign policy establishment (which is all lip service but still) pisses off neocons
-the tax cuts for the wealthy and failure to "drain the swamp" agitates the "populists"
-the general lack of decorum and gross tweets ruffle the "civility" and "I want a presidential president" crowds

What unites them all is racism and white supremacy, and he's obviously going to keep ratcheting that up. Given his extensive liabilities and crimes, his ability to get elected, stay in office, and (most likely) contest a very close election in 2020 is proof that white supremacy is one of the most popular, enduring, and animating ideas in American history.

by **TomatoPie** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 16:47:53

TP Handicapping the Dems

Warren - even money
Harris - 3/1
Biden - 4/1
Booker - 6/1
Bernie - 10/1
Pete - 20/1
Everybody else - 500/1

I think Harris or Booker would do best against Trump, and Warren the worst.

by **Phred** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 17:04:03

Augustus wrote:There are also so many loathsome, inane things about him that many people will voice disapproval based on one quality but still actually vote for him. He creates all of these weird cross cutting cleavages in his base (which is almost all white):

-the pussy grabbing offends evangelicals and white women
-the protectionism alienates farmers, the capitalists, and that weird dork you know who took econ 101 and listens to Ben Shapiro and always wants to talk to you about the Laffer curve
-the nominal criticism of the national security state/foreign policy establishment (which is all lip service but still) pisses off neocons
-the tax cuts for the wealthy and failure to "drain the swamp" agitates the "populists"
-the general lack of decorum and gross tweets ruffle the "civility" and "I want a presidential president" crowds

What unites them all is racism and white supremacy, and he's obviously going to keep ratcheting that up. Given his extensive liabilities and crimes, his ability to get elected, stay in office, and (most likely) contest a very close election in 2020 is proof that white supremacy is one of the most popular, enduring, and animating ideas in American history.

Also, evangelicals will do ANYTHING if they think that abortion will be outlawed.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 17:05:45

I think many people on this board seriously underestimate Elizabeth Warren. She is a woman of enormous dignity but who also speaks cogently and persuasively and authentically - despite her Harvard pedigree - on working people's issues.

And, more to the point, her ideas are the best and most well-thought out.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Tue Aug 13, 2019 19:11:40

Not-quite-random political thought I keep having: many activist lefty types, people who should understand about organizing, seem to have forgotten that politics is if not exclusively than at least partially the persuasion business. You’ve got to convince people to come to your way of thinking, and you don’t get there by insulting them or name-calling. To persuade you must assume good faith on the part of your listeners, you must assume further that THEY are suspicious of YOU and that it is indeed your job to disarm them and that only after you have charmed them and disarmed them can you move them. Basically I see a lot of people who need lessons in classical rhetoric.

Instead I see a lot of people whose strategy seems to be, “Anyone who isn’t with us never will be, this is a turnout battle and nothing more.”

Yes, we must also recognize that there are non-persuadables, and yes, there is a time in each cycle when it is time to forget the persuading and start with the turning out, but blanket and absolutist Twitter rants that don’t really express anything useful except the poster’s anger (“If you support Trump you are a racist!”), even if they are kinda true, produce nothing of value and should be dispensed with forthwith.

by **JFLNYC** » Wed Aug 14, 2019 01:05:49

Wolfgang622 wrote:I think many people on this board seriously underestimate Elizabeth Warren. She is a woman of enormous dignity but who also speaks cogently and persuasively and authentically - despite her Harvard pedigree - on working people's issues.

And, more to the point, her ideas are the best and most well-thought out.

With all due respect, Moz, I think you seriously underestimate the visceral negative reaction Warren engenders outside her core constituency. It’s not fair, it’s not right, but it’s there.

by **thephan** » Wed Aug 14, 2019 07:35:28

China accuses Pelosi and McConnell of inciting 'chaos' in Hong Kong

Ok then.

by **jerseyhoya** » Wed Aug 14, 2019 07:45:02

Wolfgang622 wrote:I think many people on this board seriously underestimate Elizabeth Warren.

We did a poll in an Obama-Trump state this past week for a non-political client. Tested Trump against two Dems - Biden and Warren. Biden's up double digits. Trump's up within the margin of error vs. Warren. And it wasn't Pennsylvania or some other state where Biden has any real ties.

Things can (and will!) change between now and next November. And maybe people will like Warren more as they hear from her more and learn more about her (though this generally is not how politics works these days). And it's not a state the Dems necessarily have to win to win the WH so Warren being so close could be taken as a positive.

But if the election was held today, Biden would skullfuck Trump, and probably carry a Dem Senate with him, while Warren would need to thread the needle to 270.

by **TomatoPie** » Wed Aug 14, 2019 07:53:30

JFLNYC wrote:
Wolfgang622 wrote:I think many people on this board seriously underestimate Elizabeth Warren. She is a woman of enormous dignity but who also speaks cogently and persuasively and authentically - despite her Harvard pedigree - on working people's issues.

And, more to the point, her ideas are the best and most well-thought out.

With all due respect, Moz, I think you seriously underestimate the visceral negative reaction Warren engenders outside her core constituency. It’s not fair, it’s not right, but it’s there.

Agree 100%. She's won my respect even though she is well left of my views. I'd take her over Trump 100 times out of 100. But to many Americans, she is that self-righteous preachy schoolmarm; Hillary 2.0 except she probably hasn't killed most of her enemies.

by **thephan** » Wed Aug 14, 2019 08:18:00

"I say good for @ChrisCuomo," tweeted Hannity, a close ally of Trump's. "He's out with his 9 year old daughter, and his wife, and this guy is being a jackass in front of his family. Imho Chris Cuomo has zero to apologize for. He deserves the apology.

"It always happens! When a Conservative does even a fraction of what Chris Cuomo did with his lunatic ranting, raving, & cursing, they get destroyed by the Fake News," Trump tweeted. "But when a Liberal Democrat like Chris Cuomo does it, Republicans immediately come to his defense. We never learn!"

[Trump's] campaign on Tuesday began selling T-shirts mocking the CNN host. The campaign shop's website features a picture of the shirt, with the words "Fredo unhinged," alongside an item description which reads, "CNN's Chris Cuomo is Fredo!" above "The truth hurts. He totally lost it" and "Help us annoy Chris Cuomo and buy your 'Fredo Unhinged Tee' now!"

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