SharkNATO VII: Russia's Revenge (Politics Thread)

by **Houshphandzadeh** » Sun Jul 22, 2018 18:56:28

one group that really didn't vote for Democrats is moderate and suburban Republicans, and they continue to be the focus of Democratic party leadership

by **slugsrbad** » Sun Jul 22, 2018 19:39:33

Houshphandzadeh wrote:one group that really didn't vote for Democrats is moderate and suburban Republicans, and they continue to be the focus of Democratic party leadership

I don’t think that’s necessarily true anymore. It was definitely true in 2016 when Hillary tried to win more and purple up Arizona and Texas, but there seems to be a shift brewing. It’s hard to tell without a presidential election focusing the issue/direction though.

by **jerseyhoya** » Sun Jul 22, 2018 20:05:29

Houshphandzadeh wrote:one group that really didn't vote for Democrats is moderate and suburban Republicans, and they continue to be the focus of Democratic party leadership

1) I don't think this is true. It's hard to measure because people can shift their self party ID, but you can look at aggregate vote shifts.

If you look at PA despite going from Obama +5 to Trump narrowly winning it, pulling the 4 collar counties around Philly Clinton won them by about 15% or 188k votes while Obama beat Romney by just under 10% or 123k votes. There were swings toward Clinton in a lot of suburban counties across the country.

2) This doesn't necessarily say anything about the 2020 Dem path to victory, but if you look at the House map for 2018 these are the people the Dems need to win to take the House, so they're going to get attention from Dem leadership. https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/h ... ce-ratings - Orange Co. CA, suburban DC, suburban Philly, suburban NYC, suburban Chicago, suburban Detroit, suburban Columbus, suburban Pittsburgh, suburban Houston, suburban Dallas, suburban Richmond, suburban Seattle. There are a few more rural/college town type districts, plus the Miami districts but very heavily suburban for the most part. These are almost all seats that have been GOP for a long time but the college educated white voters who've usually backed their local GOP rep don't like Trump. They aren't voters getting excited for the midterms by going to their local DSA chapters.

by **The Savior** » Sun Jul 22, 2018 20:52:01

Twitters saying UK and Ecuador are close on a deal to hand over Assange. Thought is Assange would immediately be given to US and flown back stateside.

Assange have something of value to share?

by **Monkeyboy** » Sun Jul 22, 2018 22:29:23

slugsrbad wrote: Honestly the Republican leadership is fast approaching the point of no return, if they haven’t already.

I have been thinking about this. I don't know how they can say they didn't know about any of this with so much going on. Leadership will have to continue to double down or admit to something worse, incompetence or complicity. I don't know how this gets walked back. I'm also concerned how far Trump will go when/if he is truly cornered and sees no possible way out. If his sense of self preservation is half the size of his ego, we'll end up with militias in the streets.

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Sun Jul 22, 2018 23:06:09

Trent Steele wrote:Re Biden.....this is all about getting the Presidency away from this odious, vile, face fuck of a waste of sperm. If you can’t get behind the player with the best chance of winning, you are not my friend. This isn’t the time for principle. This is the time to regain some sense of equilibrium. Any Bernie Bros that stay home can go fuck themselves. You are every bit as bad as Devin Nunes and Steve King.

I do not know if Biden is the correct candidate yet, but there are like 7 states that matter. I’m pretty damn sure that no one has come up with a candidate who plays better in more of those 7 states than Biden.

Win now.

Biden is old but likeable. The problem in my mind is you need to do Probably two of three things to win in 20202, but it’s hard to find a candidate who is good at more than one of them:

1. Excite and motivate minority base to come out and vote in big numbers (Obama did this)
2. Excite and motivate young people to register and vote (Obama also did this in 2008)
3. Appeal enough to white democratic working class men who frankly are more drawn to the perception of power and toughness than anything else (Trump obviously did this - ironically Obama probably did enough of this in 2008 as well, not so much in 2012). Men in general, across races, seem more drawn to the authoritarian - witness Hillary’s performance among black men. Very good, but also substantially off of Obama’s.

Biden might give you enough of all of these to win, but doesn’t scream as doing any of them exceptionally well. Maybe he could eat into Trump’s support on #3 more than most other apparent candidates right now. Uncle joe is the kind of guy who can get away with saying a lot, and could plausibly look tough while making trump look like the overblown blowhard that he is.

My fear is that whoever you pick really has to do the third one on some level. Best post mortem of 16 I have yet seen was on election night when some stat guy on one of the networks was pointing out that the difference between 12 and 16 was that Trump was blowing Clinton out, way out, in the rural or at least not big city/suburb counties in PA, WI, and MI. Where Obama might lose to Romney 60/40, Trump was shellacking Clinton to the tune of 75/25 and numbers like that. Gave him just enough edge to pull out the victory in all three states.

So how do Dems win? Pretty much have to get those three states back. All three are overwhelmingly white and older, with smallish Latino populations. All the young, multicultural hipness in the world won’t help overly much against a candidate like Trump in those places, who has uniquely positioned himself - laughably, but no less formidably - as the hero of the white working class.

The funny thing is, given this unique set of circumstances, the name I keep coming back to - who if totally not really ready or probably a viable candidate even under the most generous of interpretations- is John Fetterman. Younger than Sanders, significant youth following, probably brings PA back to blue automatically, and his persona/brand almost entirely neutralizes or could be used to neutralize the Trump appeal to specific types of voters in Wisconsin and Michigan and could even conceivably put Ohio back in play.

Won’t happen but I honestly think he could give you 1 and 3, and be particularly difficult for trump in the states Dems need the most.

by **philliesphhan** » Sun Jul 22, 2018 23:38:20

Wolfgang622 wrote:Biden is old but likeable. The problem in my mind is you need to do Probably two of three things to win in 20202

I think we're getting a little ahead of ourselves

by **The B1G Piece** » Sun Jul 22, 2018 23:56:17

To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!

by **pacino** » Mon Jul 23, 2018 06:56:30

i get the sense this 'Donald J Trump' character is a tad unhinged

by **CalvinBall** » Mon Jul 23, 2018 08:19:56

Another self created crisis to distract from something. He will solve it and proclaim victory.

by **slugsrbad** » Mon Jul 23, 2018 08:22:55

CalvinBall wrote:Another self created crisis to distract from something. He will solve it and proclaim victory.

At the same time he and other's on the far right are gas lighting the base into thinking the FISA report somehow proves that the Trump campaign was illegally spied on and that it relied solely on the Dossier.

For fuck sake's Mitch and Paul you have your shitty tax bill and are about to have your 2nd Justice. It's going to be too late to stop this from ending poorly if/when Trump loses or the Mueller report comes out.

by **JUburton** » Mon Jul 23, 2018 08:24:28

Sure, we nuked Iran but we got those tax cuts and killed unions so you tell me who won here

by **Werthless** » Mon Jul 23, 2018 09:16:40

Trent Steele wrote:Re Biden.....this is all about getting the Presidency away from this odious, vile, face fuck of a waste of sperm. If you can’t get behind the player with the best chance of winning, you are not my friend. This isn’t the time for principle. This is the time to regain some sense of equilibrium. Any Bernie Bros that stay home can go fuck themselves. You are every bit as bad as Devin Nunes and Steve King.

I do not know if Biden is the correct candidate yet, but there are like 7 states that matter. I’m pretty damn sure that no one has come up with a candidate who plays better in more of those 7 states than Biden.

Win now.

Not sure if this was directed at anyone in particular, but Wolfgang's post is a good illustration for why we shouldn't decide in 2018 the presumptive nominee for 2020. You don't know which candidate is going to rise up, and you hope that the DNC will allow the process to happen more openly than it did in 2016.

by **traderdave** » Mon Jul 23, 2018 09:47:23

pacino wrote:i get the sense this 'Donald J Trump' character is a tad unhinged

"Character" is the exactly correct word to describe our Imbecile in Chief. This Administration is nothing more than a bad SNL skit, at this point. This week on Donald in Charge, El Presidente threatens Iran with annihilation [insert laugh track].

by **thephan** » Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:04:12

Just some of the winning so far:

- Really great, unbelievable healthcare options, so muchbetter then before
- Peace with NK now that the threat has been handled
- Iran kept in check
- Remarkable unity between Israelis & Palestinians
- A strong NATO
- Amazing trade deals assuring American stability
- Improved relationship with our allies
- A stable Syria

So much more. So much winning.

by **pacino** » Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:31:50

Georgia state lawmaker strips down, screams n word on Who is America?

by **Trent Steele** » Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:44:16

Werthless wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:Re Biden.....this is all about getting the Presidency away from this odious, vile, face fuck of a waste of sperm. If you can’t get behind the player with the best chance of winning, you are not my friend. This isn’t the time for principle. This is the time to regain some sense of equilibrium. Any Bernie Bros that stay home can go fuck themselves. You are every bit as bad as Devin Nunes and Steve King.

I do not know if Biden is the correct candidate yet, but there are like 7 states that matter. I’m pretty damn sure that no one has come up with a candidate who plays better in more of those 7 states than Biden.

Win now.

Not sure if this was directed at anyone in particular, but Wolfgang's post is a good illustration for why we shouldn't decide in 2018 the presumptive nominee for 2020. You don't know which candidate is going to rise up, and you hope that the DNC will allow the process to happen more openly than it did in 2016.

Really not directed at anyone. Just venting generally. Agree with your point and not sure who it should be. I just want to win at all costs. And I want my team to do the analysis of what gives us the best chance to win in the general. If the data says swing left, go ahead. If it says pick off the disgruntled moderates and independents, do that hard. I don’t think you can look at any historical trends and make conclusions off of that. We are in such an atypical world right now.....Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arizona, Nevada, Virginia....maybe Ohio and Florida. That’s all that matters. Determine what wins there and play to it

by **NickSixers** » Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:35:50

The only thing we have going for us is this administration's sheer incompetence:

Wash Post: In a quest to shrink national monuments, Interior Department officials dismissed evidence that the public lands boosted tourism and spurred archaeological discoveries, according to documents the department released last week and retracted a day later.

by **swishnicholson** » Mon Jul 23, 2018 13:43:59

Why Trump has such a soft spot for Russia.

Hint: it's not the pee tape.

by **pacino** » Mon Jul 23, 2018 13:55:51

work requirements for Medicaid are costly, inefficient and ineffective, but we already knew that and did it anyway and don't care:

Kentucky’s Medicaid administration costs jumped more than 40% after implementing work requirements, a new report from Fitch Ratings shows. Those costs were incurred before a federal judge ruled against Kentucky’s Medicaid work requirements last month, dealing the effort at least a temporary blow.

“In its biennial budget, Kentucky’s Medicaid administration costs increased more than 40%, or $35 million, from prior biennium to $116 million, which Fitch partially attributes to implementing Medicaid work requirements,” Eric Kim, the lead analyst for Fitch on the report, “Medicaid Waiver Actions Limit U.S. States’ Cost Controls,” wrote. “In addition to systems development and ongoing monitoring for the roughly 200,000 Medicaid enrollees, Kentucky estimates could be subject to the work requirements and could also contribute to the higher administration costs.”

The Fitch report outlines what many predicted before the Trump-appointed head of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Seema Verma, began to work with states to implement work requirements for low income Medicaid patients. In setting a new policy earlier this year, CMS said it would “support state efforts to test incentives that make participation in work or other community engagement a requirement for continued Medicaid eligibility.”

But Politico reported last week that the “federal judge’s decision to bar Kentucky from imposing a work requirement on Medicaid recipients won’t discourage the Trump administration from considering similar requests from other states.”

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