Phillies realistically in it for Halladay?

by **Stay_Disappointed** » Mon Dec 07, 2009 10:49:49

thread dropped off the first page so Martino checks in here

by **Trent Steele** » Mon Dec 07, 2009 18:35:42

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports say the Rays inquired on Halladay, and "might be willing to offer Wade Davis and B.J. Upton." So far the most surprising rumor of the day.

by **mcare89** » Mon Dec 07, 2009 18:57:21

Well, that is surprising indeed. Who the hell tops that package?

Wouldn't Halladay be around half their payroll?

by **S2D** » Mon Dec 07, 2009 19:32:48

Rays are pretty dumb if they do that.

by **karn** » Mon Dec 07, 2009 21:15:23

Wade Davis is like 30 and sucks and BJ Upton never was. Phils top that with their second and maybe third best offers

by **mcare89** » Mon Dec 07, 2009 21:24:46

karn wrote:Wade Davis is like 30 and sucks and BJ Upton never was. Phils top that with their second and maybe third best offers

Wade Davis is like 24 and is their best pitching prospect. Probably a better prospect than Drabek. Upton is Upton. If he's on, he's elite. If not, he kills my fantasy team.

Regardless, I'm not sure the Phillies top that if they offered Drabek and Brown. Which is why I'm skeptical the Rays would do that. If that deal is put on the table, Halladay's probably a Ray, unless the Jays are concerned with the cost of Upton for the next couple years.

by **Werthless** » Mon Dec 07, 2009 21:25:56

I think Wade Davis (age 24) and Happ would be similarly valued by GMs. Davis is younger, and Happ has had success at the MLB level (their AAA peripherals aren't that different). With Upton, yeah, the hype exceeds the production. But he's still a good, young, cheap CF. Even with his lousy couple years, he's been worth (2.5, 4.9, 4.0) a decent number of wins above replacement with his combination of speed, OB ability, and CF defense. He's a younger, cheaper Victorino with more upside.

Basically, I think Davis+Upton>Happ+Victorino. The TB offer has more upside, and is cheaper. I don't really know what prospect in the Phil's system symbolizes the difference in packages... a high upside guy far from the majors, like Gose maybe?

by **Werthless** » Mon Dec 07, 2009 21:28:30

I think Wade Davis' star has lost some of the luster. His 2008 and 2009 performances were good, not great, and nothing jumps out at you from his peripherals. Oh wait, the scouts still love him. So there's that. But Happ still has the whole "proven commodity" thing going for him, which closes the gap slightly.

by **Trent Steele** » Mon Dec 07, 2009 21:30:03

Gammons reporting that the rumored deal is fugazi

by gr » Tue Dec 08, 2009 01:56:24

Trent Steele wrote:Gammons reporting that the rumored deal is fugazi

...because the Red Sox didn't make it?

by **cartersDad26** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 08:36:29

Trent Steele wrote:Gammons reporting that the rumored deal is fugazi

No, apparently the Nationals are trading these guys for Doc.

by **my cousin mose** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 14:36:16

cartersDad26 wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:Gammons reporting that the rumored deal is fugazi

No, apparently the Nationals are trading these guys for Doc.

holy crap i never knew ian mckaye was friends with herman munster

by **Soren** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 14:41:15

my cousin mose wrote:
cartersDad26 wrote:
Trent Steele wrote:Gammons reporting that the rumored deal is fugazi

No, apparently the Nationals are trading these guys for Doc.

holy crap i never knew ian mckaye was friends with herman munster

almost spat coffee on my monitor

by **dajafi** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 14:43:23

Werthless wrote:I think Wade Davis' star has lost some of the luster. His 2008 and 2009 performances were good, not great, and nothing jumps out at you from his peripherals. Oh wait, the scouts still love him. So there's that. But Happ still has the whole "proven commodity" thing going for him, which closes the gap slightly.

I wonder. If we're all aware that Happ's probably had his career season in terms of results even if his underlying performance improves, wouldn't it make sense that major-league executives grasp that as well? Going forward, he's likely to be a lefty Joe Blanton, with maybe a few more strikeouts--a nice thing to have, especially at the minimum for the next two years, but not a franchise cornerstone. I don't know much about Davis, but I have to believe that his ceiling is higher than Happ's.

by **Werthless** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 15:35:31

Well, that's the thing. Happ and Davis had similar peripherals at AAA, then Happ's K rate dropped in the majors (yet he continued to have success).

Bill James' projections for 2010:
Davis: 4.35 ERA
Happ: 4.31 ERA (rising K rate, BB rate, HR rate, BABIP)

by **joe table** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 15:46:46

Werthless wrote:I think Wade Davis' star has lost some of the luster. His 2008 and 2009 performances were good, not great, and nothing jumps out at you from his peripherals. Oh wait, the scouts still love him. So there's that. But Happ still has the whole "proven commodity" thing going for him, which closes the gap slightly.

You have to mention that Davis had a very nice ML debut late last year. 36.1 IP, 33 H, 15 ER, 2 HR, 13 BB, 36 K. And comparing Happ 2008 in AAA to Davis 2009 in AAA isn't really apples to apples, since JA was in his second full season at the level in his age 25 season, while Wade was in his first full year there at age 23. Comparing it to Happ's 2007 is probably more relevant IMO, and even there it isn't completely equal in terms of age at the level

Plus you have the stuff aspect, Davis showed 4 solid pitches, throws about 2-3 mph harder than JA. And he's got the service time advantage now as well. I think Davis is the decidedly more valuable pitcher between the two

by **Grotewold** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 15:52:13

dajafi wrote:If we're all aware that Happ's probably had his career season in terms of results even if his underlying performance improves, wouldn't it make sense that major-league executives grasp that as well?

Yes.

by **FTN** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 17:39:50

Jon Heyman of SI.com hears that the Red Sox will not give up Clay Buchholz or Casey Kelly for Roy Halladay.
Heyman notes a potential "market crash" and he's potentially right. It's difficult to dismiss the Yankees as a potential suitor for Halladay, but general manager Brian Cashman may be more inclined to keep top prospects now that they've dealt Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson. There's certainly no reason for the Red Sox to deal Buchholz or Kelly if the Yankees won't participate in the bidding. Stay tuned.

Seems like a near certainty he's going to be a Phillies at this point

by **mcare89** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 17:49:44

FTN wrote:
Jon Heyman of SI.com hears that the Red Sox will not give up Clay Buchholz or Casey Kelly for Roy Halladay.
Heyman notes a potential "market crash" and he's potentially right. It's difficult to dismiss the Yankees as a potential suitor for Halladay, but general manager Brian Cashman may be more inclined to keep top prospects now that they've dealt Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson. There's certainly no reason for the Red Sox to deal Buchholz or Kelly if the Yankees won't participate in the bidding. Stay tuned.

Seems like a near certainty he's going to be a Phillies at this point

Kendrick and Galvis for Halladay?

by **Wizlah** » Tue Dec 08, 2009 17:57:07

FTN wrote:
Jon Heyman of SI.com hears that the Red Sox will not give up Clay Buchholz or Casey Kelly for Roy Halladay.
Heyman notes a potential "market crash" and he's potentially right. It's difficult to dismiss the Yankees as a potential suitor for Halladay, but general manager Brian Cashman may be more inclined to keep top prospects now that they've dealt Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson. There's certainly no reason for the Red Sox to deal Buchholz or Kelly if the Yankees won't participate in the bidding. Stay tuned.

Seems like a near certainty he's going to be a Phillies at this point

mets pimping out bigpelf's big arse even as I type.

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