ek wrote:what would we offer to compare to that? happ plus drabek/brown plus others?

it doesnt matter because toronto isnt going to get that or anything close to it

That's such an absurd request on its face I have to wonder if someone's just screwing with Heyman.

So long as we don't offer Jesus Ruiz

dajafi wrote:That's such an absurd request on its face I have to wonder if someone's just screwing with Heyman.

On the other hand, the Yankees are in their division, so maybe they figure they'll try to get some outrageous package from them.

Getting Halladay would cost us more money that just paying Halladay. Reason is simple, Victorino Contract is up after 2011, Werth after 2010, the Phillies have two budding young players in Taylor and Brown waiting in the wings to replace these guys at lower dollar amounts. The Phillies will almost certainly have to include at least one if not both of them in the deal to get Halladay Which means after 2010 they will need to aquire either by trading more young players or by paying a free agent contract one outfielder, then another in 2011 and then another in 2012 after Ibanez is up.

The only way this works as others have suggested is that the Phillies to do a 3 way deal by dealing Blanton in order to offset the cost of Halladay. Then maybe the Phillies can get away with dealing some good 2nd tier talent instead of the top 3 in the system.

There's 0% chance we'd have to include both Taylor and Brown

philliesphhan wrote:There's 0% chance we'd have to include both Taylor and Brown

0%?

LAex!

philliesphhan wrote:There's 0% chance we'd consider including both Taylor and Brown

FYP.

BigB wrote:Getting Halladay would cost us more money that just paying Halladay. Reason is simple, Victorino Contract is up after 2011, Werth after 2010, the Phillies have two budding young players in Taylor and Brown waiting in the wings to replace these guys at lower dollar amounts. The Phillies will almost certainly have to include at least one if not both of them in the deal to get Halladay Which means after 2010 they will need to aquire either by trading more young players or by paying a free agent contract one outfielder, then another in 2011 and then another in 2012 after Ibanez is up.

The only way this works as others have suggested is that the Phillies to do a 3 way deal by dealing Blanton in order to offset the cost of Halladay. Then maybe the Phillies can get away with dealing some good 2nd tier talent instead of the top 3 in the system.

Things happen you can't anticipate. 3 years ago they had Burrell, Rowand, Abreu starting in the OF. They went to the WS last year with 3 OF - all All Stars - that (1) were not organizational players; and (2) cost nothing to acquire. Will it happen again? Probably not. But 2012 should occupy apprx. .04% of Amaro's concern. If Amaro does everything prudently, they could be a 75 win team in 2012 because Brown ends up sucking, Taylor can't stay healthy, and Utley enters a steep decline phase. Who knows. What I know now is that Halladay is there and available and he is really fucking good.

The problem I see with a Halladay trade is that the way the Phils have set the parameters, they'd very possibly have to part with both Blanton and Happ to get him--Cupcakes to create payroll space, Happ because the Jays would want him in the deal.

If so, I'm not sure the moves would make sense. the upside isn’t as clear. Effectively you'd be replacing Blanton and Happ, combined cost $8 million or so, with Halladay and Kendrick or Moyer, for much more money. It's an upgrade, but not a very cost-effective one.

This brings me back to the exchange I was having with jeff and why the ideal might be to include Blanton in the Halladay trade (or to swap him for someone Toronto would want as much as they'd want Happ, I guess).

dajafi wrote:The problem I see with a Halladay trade is that the way the Phils have set the parameters, they'd very possibly have to part with both Blanton and Happ to get him--Cupcakes to create payroll space, Happ because the Jays would want him in the deal.

If so, I'm not sure the moves would make sense. the upside isn’t as clear. Effectively you'd be replacing Blanton and Happ, combined cost $8 million or so, with Halladay and Kendrick or Moyer, for much more money. It's an upgrade, but not a very cost-effective one.

This brings me back to the exchange I was having with jeff and why the ideal might be to include Blanton in the Halladay trade (or to swap him for someone Toronto would want as much as they'd want Happ, I guess).

It should be very effective in Games 1-4 of the Phils sweep of the 2010 WS

I could see another team wanting Blanton, but not Toronto. Blanton could be a Type B FA in 2011, but for the Jays to get a chance to get that sandwich pick they'd have to risk paying the guy upwards of 75% of the money they are saving in the Roy deal by offering him arb. The cost/benefit is skewed for that team. They are only saving half of the Roy money for 2010 to take back Blanton and finish in 4th place. If/when he goes it will be for prospects and/or pre-arb guys, IMO

This proposed Millwood-Ray deal could be something of a template for a separate Blanton deal if the payroll space is needed....Millwood is pricier so the Rangers are putting up 3mm cash of the 12mm salary, but getting very little in return other than payroll flexibility (Ray a potential non-tender from BAL coming back from injury, only 2 years of control remaining)

And like the above post mentioned, having to ship out Blanton in combination with a Roy acquisition takes some of the shine off because Roy is no longer upgrading our replacement-level 5 spot, but instead a league average (or better, by xFIP) guy

Daj, I don't know how else to put this. It NEVER EVER makes sense to include Blanton in the trade unless Toronto ASKS for Blanton.

You're destroying value. By giving him to Toronto, you're not only foregoing the value you could get for another team but you're PAYING for the right to forego that value.

dajafi wrote:The problem I see with a Halladay trade is that the way the Phils have set the parameters, they'd very possibly have to part with both Blanton and Happ to get him--Cupcakes to create payroll space, Happ because the Jays would want him in the deal.

If so, I'm not sure the moves would make sense. the upside isn’t as clear. Effectively you'd be replacing Blanton and Happ, combined cost $8 million or so, with Halladay and Kendrick or Moyer, for much more money. It's an upgrade, but not a very cost-effective one.

This brings me back to the exchange I was having with jeff and why the ideal might be to include Blanton in the Halladay trade (or to swap him for someone Toronto would want as much as they'd want Happ, I guess).

And beyond 2010, the Phillies need to sign one of the two (Halladay/Lee). While it would be great to have 4 first round picks, what would the 2011 rotation look like? Blanton and Happ would both be gone.

Hamels
Drabek
Kendrick
??
??

jeff2sf wrote:Daj, I don't know how else to put this. It NEVER EVER makes sense to include Blanton in the trade unless Toronto ASKS for Blanton.

You're destroying value. By giving him to Toronto, you're not only foregoing the value you could get for another team but you're PAYING for the right to forego that value.

I'm not disagreeing with that. But to me, it's not worth doing any of this if the end result is that you're replacing Blanton/Happ in the rotation with Halladay/Kendrick. So to avoid that, you either have to make a deal with the Jays that doesn't include Happ, or trade him in the Toronto deal but also get back in the deal for Blanton someone who's about as good, and as affordable, as Happ to be the #4 for the Phils' 2010 rotation.

My key was that these are the parameters the Phils seem to have set: they can't afford to add Halladay on top of the current payroll.

Don't know the specifics around the contract, but I wonder if they could hit Comcast up for some money, a la the Pete Rose situation. Have to think ad revenue would increase, even above 2008/09.

dajafi wrote:

jeff2sf wrote:Daj, I don't know how else to put this. It NEVER EVER makes sense to include Blanton in the trade unless Toronto ASKS for Blanton.

You're destroying value. By giving him to Toronto, you're not only foregoing the value you could get for another team but you're PAYING for the right to forego that value.

I'm not disagreeing with that. But to me, it's not worth doing any of this if the end result is that you're replacing Blanton/Happ in the rotation with Halladay/Kendrick. So to avoid that, you either have to make a deal with the Jays that doesn't include Happ, or trade him in the Toronto deal but also get back in the deal for Blanton someone who's about as good, and as affordable, as Happ to be the #4 for the Phils' 2010 rotation.

My key was that these are the parameters the Phils seem to have set: they can't afford to add Halladay on top of the current payroll.

I still think having Halladay is a hell of a lot better for the playoffs if they get there. Lee-Halladay-Hamels-whoever

SI_JonHeyman

hearing #phillies joining the fray for #halladay. angels, yanks, red sox believed in, as well.

Didn't I? wrote:SI_JonHeyman

hearing #phillies joining the fray for #halladay. angels, yanks, red sox believed in, as well.

Does it really count as "joining" the fray when you've been in the fray since June?

I can ask him.