lowcountry wrote:There will be people coming out of the woodwork accusing the owners of being cheap if they press the issue and then try to back off. Because they'll either be accused of ...


1. Winning another WFC and being satisfied -- not willing to do what it takes to stay a contender.

or

2. The team won't win a WFC and the owners will be accused of not being willing to do what it takes to field a winner.

I don't think so. Especially if Amaro, upon acquiring Halladay and signing him long term, says that the Phillies went above and beyond this year because it was a special case. We're not talking about going from $155 (or whatever number we need) to $100. We're talking about going from $155 to $130-135. Its a huge difference.

It'll be the same people who aren't ever happy, anyway, and complain on talk radio. who the hell cares

Warszawa wrote:This is going to happen

Not with that avatar it isn't. Every "is gonna be a Phillies" I've photoshopped a Phillies uni on has ended up not being a Phillies. Manny, Roy, Holliday

FTN wrote:If im the Phillies, I make the deal, use Happ, and take the payroll higher in 2010, with the intention of scaling back in 2011. In 2011 you're rid of Romero and Moyer, which is like 10M of salary in 2010. Blanton would be a FA, as would Lee.

I'd take the payroll to $155M this year, fully knowing that they can scale it back the following year

Yes, I'd be tempted to do this also (although there will be some flak when scaling back in 2011). Also, you can assume you'd at least have Hamels and Halladay for 2011, since I don't think Halladay is waiving his NTC without a new contract. The current window is closing. Maybe as well go for it now.

philliesphhan wrote:

stevemc wrote:

Grotewold wrote:

stevemc wrote:FTN - I like your line of thinking but don't you think realistically that Rube has to include some payroll (say a Blanton) in return to help offset the increase Halladay brings to the books?

Might make more sense to move him in a separate trade.

That's fine with me. I can't realistically think that we can just pull off a Halladay trade with minor leaguers and not shave something out of the ML payroll. And it doesn't have to be Blanton of course although his $/importance assuming you add Halladay makes the most sense.

Happ's not a minor leaguer though

Point is that his pay is inconsequential in the grand scheme of the overall payroll.

Happ, and any minor leaguers not named Drabek, Taylor, or Brown. Anybody out of the system except those 3.

Warszawa wrote:

FTN wrote:I think its almost a near certainty that Blanton outperforms Happ in 2010.

If im the Phillies, I make the deal, use Happ, and take the payroll higher in 2010, with the intention of scaling back in 2011. In 2011 you're rid of Romero and Moyer, which is like 10M of salary in 2010. Blanton would be a FA, as would Lee.

I'd take the payroll to $155M this year, fully knowing that they can scale it back the following year

In 2011, it looks like this

Ruiz: Final arb year?
Howard: $20
Utley: $15
Rollins: $8.5
Ibanez: $11.5
Victorino: Final arb year
Francisco: Second year of arb

Hamels: $9.5
Lidge: $11.5
Madson: $4.5

Thats $80.5M. Add in like 11M for Shane, $3M for Ruiz, and $1M for Francisco (those are just random, not scientific), and that's like $15M, so $95M. Lets just assume that we sign Beltre this winter at 3/24 with an even AAV distribution, so $8M. That brings us to like $103M. And we'd have

C - Ruiz, 1B - Howard, 2B - Utley, 3B - Beltre, SS - Rollins, LF - Ibanez, CF - Victorino, RF - ??

SP - Hamels, SP x 4 - ??

And then our bullpen.

So with $103M, we'd have like 30M or so to fill RF and the 4 rotation spots. If Domonic Brown continues to progress, I think he'll be ready to play by 2011. He won't be peaking, but you can ease him in assuming Taylor is used in a trade to get Halladay. A platoon of Francisco and Brown would be pretty damn good I think. Not Werth-good, but good. Give Halladay a 4/80 deal with a vesting option based on IP, and backload the deal slightly. $17M, $19M, $22M, $22M.

If you give him $17M in 2011, then you're at $120M to fill out 3 rotation spots. Drabek will be ready and make the minimum. So you've got $10M to play with for 2 starters, and depending on the economy/ticket sales, you could have even more.

I like that plan.

Makes a lot of sense.

Will Toronto take Happ and Taylor? Would the Phillies offer them? I can't believe the Phillies front office doesn't see Happ for what he is. I also think Toronto could sell Happ to their fan base based on his 2008.

Especially considering Happ threw a CG shutout @ Rogers Centre last year.

Stripes wrote:Happ, and any minor leaguers not named Drabek, Taylor, or Brown. Anybody out of the system except those 3.

One of those 3 is going to have to go to make it work.

JFLNYC wrote:

Stripes wrote:Happ, and any minor leaguers not named Drabek, Taylor, or Brown. Anybody out of the system except those 3.

One of those 3 is going to have to go to make it work.

Maybe. We weren't supposed to be able to get Lee(and Francisco) as cheaply as we did, either. And all the "experts" said last year that Doc's value would only go down this winter, as the team acquiring him would only have him for one postseason, rather than two.

We'll see.

Hamels, Halladay, Drabek, and two pickups in the rotation? Count me out. Even if all 3 stay healthy, Drabek is a complete unknown (MLB history is littered with can't-miss prospects like Drabek who never amounted to a darn thing, especially ones with injury histories) and I don't like the chances of picking up two solid rotation guys on the relative cheap when our system has already lost some of its brighter lights, especially if Taylor is also gone in the Halladay deal.

You're counting on everything going right. Everyone has to stay healthy and the system has to continue to produce starting pitching or the pieces to get pretty cheap starters. That's very little margin for error. I really don't like the idea of trading away cheap starting pitching for much more expensive starting pitching, even for a guy like Halladay. I didn't mind it once for Lee, but doing it twice would further strip the upper levels of the farm and use a huge chunk of monetary resources. Why not sign Lee instead of Halladay and keep the prospects? Or if we want to get another top starter, why not go after Lackey? Or Webb next year?

I just don't see how we can sign and/or keep expensive talent if we trade away all our cheap contributing players.

Now if we can find a way to trade Ibanez and use Taylor/Francisco/Mayberry, then I would be more willing to go after another expensive stud pitcher.

Just my two cents.

so you'd prefer to just keep what we have and hope every bounce goes our way the next two years instead of trying to field the best possible team while we still have howard, utley, and rollins.

2010 is the phillies best chance to win a world series. most of the team is back. theres a realistic chance we have a good upgrade at 3B. and a better season from hamels and lidge.

if you add halladay and beltre while losing only happ, and we get normal performance from our bullpen, its a 100 win team with three legit #1 SP's in the playoffs. We may not win the World Series, but we're the clear favorite in the NL, and we're equipped to beat any team in a 7 game series.

2011 and beyond will be challenging no matter what because a large amount of the team will either be gone or ridiculously expensive to retain. 2010 is the golden opportunity.

ill take 3 pennants in a row and 2 rings in a 3 year period and worry about 2011 next winter.

When did I say "stick with what we have and hope every bounce goes our way?"

I'm fine with going for Beltre. And if we can get Halladay without giving up Taylor, Brown, Happ, or Drabek, then I would be very happy. Or if we can free up some space by trading Ibanez, then I would feel better about using Happ to get and sign Halladay because we'd have more cash in 2011 to go get some better starting pitching to back up the big 2.

I don't see how me saying we should keep some depth is more risky than going for broke and putting all our eggs in Halladay's basket. The strength of this year's team was the offense and the depth of the starting pitching. If we go with your plan and we lose one of the big 2, we're in very serious trouble.

I also don't like the idea of planning like we aren't going to be good after 2011. If we can hold onto some of these cheap guys, keep a few of our big guns, and pick up some key pieces, we can continue to be at the top. But if we trade away all of our young talent, then we won't be able to afford the expensive guys and the free agent pieces to stay competitive.

This team was a few bounces and a misplayed ball or two from winning the series this year, and that was with a broken bullpen and a black hole at the top of the order. Let's not act like we have to go all in to be right at the top again next year. If anything, I think we'll be better next year just by bringing back the same guys. Upgrade at 3B and tweak the pen and we'll be even better.

Plus, there are a few guys entering the market over the next two years that are only a half-step down from Halladay. Why not keep Taylor and Happ and go after one of them? If we're going to go all in, I would prefer to do it that way given our situation.

The Phillies are going to have a huge problem after 2011.

Howard, Rollins, Ibanez, Lidge (might be a plus, not a minus), and Victorino are all free agents. Hamels will be in his last year of arbitration (I think), and thats basically it.

The team will be Utley plus a bunch of other guys. 2010 and 2011 are the two years to go all out.

Then its time to re-tool.

I think the club has to make this move or pursue this line of thinking. Think about it: Holliday is an ace, not that many teams are in the running, and it wouldn't empty the farm to get him. That's a trifecta that doesn't happen that often. There's no truly prudent or compelling reason not to go after him.

I'm drunk and I love it. Let's get Halladay, keep Lee and sign them both long term. We have the money and the fanbase to sustain it now. Stop being girls about it. Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Blanton-Happ. We win WFC and the whole world f-ing rejoices.

Monkeyboy wrote:Hamels, Halladay, Drabek, and two pickups in the rotation? Count me out.

I assume you're talking about 2011, so what would you prefer? If Lee doesn't sign an extension, the rotation will be Hamels, Happ, Drabek, and two pickups.

The more I think about this the more getting Halladay does not make sense if you want a team that is going to be competitive after 2010. The Phillies got to the point of being World Series Champs in 2008 because they did a good job of keeping their top talent. in order to get Halladay one of Brown, Taylor or Drabek if not two of will have to go. I don' t think this is smart fo the PHillies. By 2011 Drabek will need to be in the rotation and Brown and Taylor will be flanking Victorino (on his last year here) Yes alot of money will be coming off the books after 2010 when Werth, Blanton,Moyer, Lee,Romero and such come off the books but those are some pretty darn talented players who would be leaving, you will need to replace them, Brown, Taylor and Drabek would be a start. Plus you have to believe that they will need to deal Howard after 2010 they can't keep him in 2011 and simply let him walk as a free agent, two draft picks are not enough for Howard. They hold an option on Rollins for 2011. Basically 2011 and on it could be Utley flanking some very young players who all have talent.

If this is done right, the 2011 team and on are built around Hamels, Utley, Brown, Taylor, Glavis, Happ, Drabek and some talent obtained from dealing the likes of Howard, Rollins, and probably a few free agents who are signed along the way. Plus would a Gose come quicker than expected, Can Savery be a back of the rotation starter etc

Valid points but this team is obviously poised to win now - go all in and get Halladay. Worry about 2011 in the afterglow of a world championship.

Other other things to consider if the Phils don't trade for him:

. Where Halladay will end up? Our competition is no longer just the NL East; it's all of MLB. If the Phils don't get him, the Yanks, Red Sox or some other elite team will and it will make winning another WS doubly hard.

. Unlike Lee, Halladay is a guy who does occasionally start on 3-days' rest (he's 4-2, 2.79 in 6 starts). In the current post-season setup, someone pitching on 3-days' rest could get as many as 7 or even 8 starts. If the post-season were to go the full 19 games, you'd have Halladay, Lee and Hamels starting 17 of those games.

. Knowing you could have had him, you might feel pretty stupid watching Happ regress in 2010 and Taylor playing in LHV.

There's no avoiding that the Phils will be re-tooling by 2012. I'd much prefer to have Halladay at the top of the rotation to build around. Plus, by that time Happ will be in his arbitration years. So, if he's really good, he's not going to be cheap anymore

jerseyhoya wrote:

Swiggers wrote:

smitty wrote:The only other one in Phils history was Juan Samuel I guess. He hit 28 home runs one year and slugged .502. But he had a lot of years with slg pcts. less than .400 which surprised me. He also was a pretty bad 2Bman and he didn't get on bas all that well and he didn't last long as a regular.

I still have no idea why he's in the Phils' HOF. Has our history really been that horrid?

Seriously join the We Love Jayson Werth Fan Club on facebook.

I'm not on Facebook. Primarily to avoid people like that.