Phillies realistically in it for Halladay?

by **Werthless** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 09:49:15

JFLNYC wrote:If getting Halladay means re-signing Feliz cheap to keep the payroll down, do you do it?

Yup, without much thought.

by **FTN** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 16:35:19

Jon Heyman of SI.com reports that that Yankees plan to inquire about Roy Halladay.

by **philliesphhan** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 17:51:51

If the Blue Jays trade him to the Yankees, people in Toronto should be allowed to burn down the stadium.

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 17:56:42

philliesphhan wrote:If the Blue Jays trade him to the Yankees, people in Toronto should be allowed to burn down the stadium.

there's no harm in trading him to the yankees. that helps them get prospects from the yankees that would have made the yankees that much harder to beat in the future. wouldn't it be nice for the jays to not only get improve for 2012 and 2013 but also bring the yankees down a little bit in 2012 and 2013 the process? i think the yankees should be afraid of giving the jays too many good prospects.

by **FTN** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 17:57:58

The Yankees farm system is pretty bad. I can think of like 1 star (Montero) who is a DH in the big leagues, 1 decent every day OF (Jackson), and then a whole lot of fringy types.

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 18:02:43

how good is the star montero? is he like a tip top prospect like top 25 in the league?

frankly, i don't see halladay fetching more than half what he would have last july. the jays were in such a great position because they could give you two pennant runs and two postseasons with halladay. the way his value works, the real benefit to having halladay is if you know you're in a tight pennant chase and if you know you'll need him in the playoffs to replace someone mediocre. a guy that expensive isn't necessarily giving that much value for the first half of the season because no team can say for sure that they are in the thick of things or that they won't necessarily run away with the division anyway.

by **FTN** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 18:06:32

Montero is a stud. He can rake. But he's not going to catch in the bigs, hes never really played 1B so who knows if he can stick there.

by **TenuredVulture** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 18:06:48

Happ for Haladay straight up.

by **philliesphhan** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 18:08:00

MattS wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:If the Blue Jays trade him to the Yankees, people in Toronto should be allowed to burn down the stadium.

there's no harm in trading him to the yankees. that helps them get prospects from the yankees that would have made the yankees that much harder to beat in the future. wouldn't it be nice for the jays to not only get improve for 2012 and 2013 but also bring the yankees down a little bit in 2012 and 2013 the process? i think the yankees should be afraid of giving the jays too many good prospects.

Fine, let's trade Utley to the Mets and see how you feel about it.

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 18:10:14

philliesphhan wrote:
MattS wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:If the Blue Jays trade him to the Yankees, people in Toronto should be allowed to burn down the stadium.

there's no harm in trading him to the yankees. that helps them get prospects from the yankees that would have made the yankees that much harder to beat in the future. wouldn't it be nice for the jays to not only get improve for 2012 and 2013 but also bring the yankees down a little bit in 2012 and 2013 the process? i think the yankees should be afraid of giving the jays too many good prospects.

Fine, let's trade Utley to the Mets and see how you feel about it.

If he were 32, a year away from free agency, and we weren't going to be good for a few years, you'd have to think about it. Especially if the Mets had prospects that would make them that much tougher to beat in a few years. The emotions of how it would feel to watch Utley in blue and orange shouldn't affect a GM's goal to put a winner on the field in the future.

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 18:13:52

TenuredVulture wrote:Happ for Haladay straight up.

Sadly, this is less unreasonable than you think but would never get done because it wouldn't sound good to the media and fans. It's five years of Happ for one year of Halladay. It's still not enough but it's enough that it should ruin their ability to get a top prospect in the process.

Halladay should be worth one Top 25 prospect with maybe some fringy guys in the low minors on the side, or just a bunch of B prospects. Think Sabathia to Brewers or Johan to Mets.

by **philliesphhan** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 18:26:08

MattS wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:
MattS wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:If the Blue Jays trade him to the Yankees, people in Toronto should be allowed to burn down the stadium.

there's no harm in trading him to the yankees. that helps them get prospects from the yankees that would have made the yankees that much harder to beat in the future. wouldn't it be nice for the jays to not only get improve for 2012 and 2013 but also bring the yankees down a little bit in 2012 and 2013 the process? i think the yankees should be afraid of giving the jays too many good prospects.

Fine, let's trade Utley to the Mets and see how you feel about it.

If he were 32, a year away from free agency, and we weren't going to be good for a few years, you'd have to think about it. Especially if the Mets had prospects that would make them that much tougher to beat in a few years. The emotions of how it would feel to watch Utley in blue and orange shouldn't affect a GM's goal to put a winner on the field in the future.

I asked how YOU'D feel about it, robot. You can't tell me for one second you'd be okay with it. I don't care if Utley's crippled; I don't want him on the Mets.

by **etched Chaos** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 18:40:58

Surely the whole handicapping the Yankees by taking their prospects is a pointless statement. This is the Yankees, they'd just buy their needs if they lack prospects.

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 18:50:12

etched Chaos wrote:Surely the whole handicapping the Yankees by taking their prospects is a pointless statement. This is the Yankees, they'd just buy their needs if they lack prospects.

that worked great for 2001-2008. it's amazing how mean the yankees are to their fans when the weren't faced with scarcity and refused to win the world series for eight years.

listen: all teams are faced with scarcity. if someone coerced the yankees to trade mariano rivera years ago, they'd have less flags no matter what they did with their money after that.

by **Philly the Kid** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 18:51:35

Matt, your perspective in this thread has been really interesting...

I guess given what we went through this past pos-season, it would be nice to go in to the playoffs with 3 starting pitchers you felt could hold a team to 2 runs or less in 7 1/3 innings... something like that. Halladay when he is on, is lights out. And who wouldn't want that guy all-season , half-a-season, and surely in playoffs?! But you make a lot of good points.

The thing about someday down the line, is that it often doesn't go as anyone expected. Prospects don't pan out after all, or they do, but there are a lot of other holes.

Cliff Lee and a re-charged Hamels could easily lead the Phils to another NL pennant. We've seen some good from Blanton, Happ may have looked better than he truly is, but he might improve an little and give us better chances to win than Eaton and Moyer were... maybe we have enough.

The age of Doc, plus his 1 year and he's out, and the high cost -- does seem like a reason to pause. And perhaps a team like the Phils that now sees itself as an "ongoing contender" not a 2-year wonder, needs to hold on to guys like Drabek and Brown? That all being said, I'd sure feel a lot more confident going in to another season and trying to get back to a WS with Doc, Lee, Hamels -- than Lee, Hamels, Blanton/Happ

I don't see it happening. I don't see the Phils being able to afford it nor giving up the pieces to do it. But let's say Brown and Drabek become stars in 2013, that won't mean that the 2013 Phils have a good chance to make the WS. They may end up having long excellent careers, but if our window is right now? Its cause for pause.

I agree by the way that Hamels for Doc, isn't worth it. While Halladay is a proven commodity and Hamels has flashed and had the amazing playoff run -- the age diff and upside on Hamels makes it seem not worth it. Plus, as amazing as Doc Lee as 1 and 2 would be, losing Hamels, even next year takes something away from the benefit of acquiring Doc. The picture that makes us drool, is Doc, Lee, Hamels! Not Doc, Lee, Blanton...

I'm prepared to let go of the Doc dream. Too many other players in the market, and by not getting him for this past WS-run, we lost half his value right there. I would feel we could 3-pearance if we had him, but not at any cost.

I just know that in the years of following the Phils, very few "hot pitching prospects" ever panned all the way out and became HOFers.

Arguably the two best pitchers of the last 40 years for the PHils were Carlton and Schilling. Not a lot of really big careers came from highly touted pitching prospects. And even guys who had brief spells of competence or semi-excellence were usually trades or something...

Whether Tommy Greene or Jim Kaat or Danny Jackson or Tommy Underwood - Jim Longborg, Jon Denny, Terry Mulholland -- Dick Ruthven -- Larry Christenson - Vicent Padilla -- Milwood - Lieber - Lidle - Lohse ...

few of these guys had long tenures with the Phils, few came from the Phils farm, and few were dominant for more than 1 season. Even Randy Wolf, never reached full potential. Gavin Floyd didn't stick and Madson hasn't even elevated to closer - yet.

So I luv Drabek like the next fan - but you gotta wonder what the odds are of him coming up and giving us even 5 years that are equal to Doc Halladays best 5 or median 5 - or the 3-4 we'd get if we had him and then resigned him for 3 more?

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 18:55:08

philliesphhan wrote:I asked how YOU'D feel about it, robot. You can't tell me for one second you'd be okay with it. I don't care if Utley's crippled; I don't want him on the Mets.

i'd be pissed. it would suck to see. i'm just saying that would pail in comparison to a championship. knowing how it feels to suck like the 90s, the fall short like 01-06, to win divisions 07-09, to win a series in 08, and to lose a series in 09, it's pretty damn pointless to consider all the minor emotions that went along with individual players coming and going in the process. i stormed around angry for a while after we traded abreu, but those emotions were really small compared to losing the wild card at the end of the season. and nothing compared to winning in 2008. it's just not the same kind of emotion. i like winning.

by **Philly the Kid** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 19:07:47

MattS wrote:
philliesphhan wrote:I asked how YOU'D feel about it, robot. You can't tell me for one second you'd be okay with it. I don't care if Utley's crippled; I don't want him on the Mets.

i'd be pissed. it would suck to see. i'm just saying that would pail in comparison to a championship. knowing how it feels to suck like the 90s, the fall short like 01-06, to win divisions 07-09, to win a series in 08, and to lose a series in 09, it's pretty damn pointless to consider all the minor emotions that went along with individual players coming and going in the process. i stormed around angry for a while after we traded abreu, but those emotions were really small compared to losing the wild card at the end of the season. and nothing compared to winning in 2008. it's just not the same kind of emotion. i like winning.

nicely stated

i'd add too, that players rarely show loyalty to the fans who came up with them -- they go for the biggest dollars and happily wear another teams colors... like I said, I'd hate to be that kid from Cleveland, or have been a 12 year old who watched Bond and Bonilla as Pirates fan ... etc...

If the Birds win the SB this year or next I'll be sad that Brian Dawkins wasn't part of it -- but its not like I'd rather not win. I hated Pete Rose on the Phils, but 1980 can never be taken away...

Just win. The emotion of winning is more powerful than any one player.

by **philliesphhan** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 19:20:15

P layers rarely show loyalty to the fans though Utley did give us a discount

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 19:27:26

Philly the Kid wrote:Matt, your perspective in this thread has been really interesting...

I guess given what we went through this past pos-season, it would be nice to go in to the playoffs with 3 starting pitchers you felt could hold a team to 2 runs or less in 7 1/3 innings... something like that. Halladay when he is on, is lights out. And who wouldn't want that guy all-season , half-a-season, and surely in playoffs?! But you make a lot of good points.

The thing about someday down the line, is that it often doesn't go as anyone expected. Prospects don't pan out after all, or they do, but there are a lot of other holes.

Cliff Lee and a re-charged Hamels could easily lead the Phils to another NL pennant. We've seen some good from Blanton, Happ may have looked better than he truly is, but he might improve an little and give us better chances to win than Eaton and Moyer were... maybe we have enough.

The age of Doc, plus his 1 year and he's out, and the high cost -- does seem like a reason to pause. And perhaps a team like the Phils that now sees itself as an "ongoing contender" not a 2-year wonder, needs to hold on to guys like Drabek and Brown? That all being said, I'd sure feel a lot more confident going in to another season and trying to get back to a WS with Doc, Lee, Hamels -- than Lee, Hamels, Blanton/Happ

I don't see it happening. I don't see the Phils being able to afford it nor giving up the pieces to do it. But let's say Brown and Drabek become stars in 2013, that won't mean that the 2013 Phils have a good chance to make the WS. They may end up having long excellent careers, but if our window is right now? Its cause for pause.

I agree by the way that Hamels for Doc, isn't worth it. While Halladay is a proven commodity and Hamels has flashed and had the amazing playoff run -- the age diff and upside on Hamels makes it seem not worth it. Plus, as amazing as Doc Lee as 1 and 2 would be, losing Hamels, even next year takes something away from the benefit of acquiring Doc. The picture that makes us drool, is Doc, Lee, Hamels! Not Doc, Lee, Blanton...

I'm prepared to let go of the Doc dream. Too many other players in the market, and by not getting him for this past WS-run, we lost half his value right there. I would feel we could 3-pearance if we had him, but not at any cost.

I just know that in the years of following the Phils, very few "hot pitching prospects" ever panned all the way out and became HOFers.

Arguably the two best pitchers of the last 40 years for the PHils were Carlton and Schilling. Not a lot of really big careers came from highly touted pitching prospects. And even guys who had brief spells of competence or semi-excellence were usually trades or something...

Whether Tommy Greene or Jim Kaat or Danny Jackson or Tommy Underwood - Jim Longborg, Jon Denny, Terry Mulholland -- Dick Ruthven -- Larry Christenson - Vicent Padilla -- Milwood - Lieber - Lidle - Lohse ...

few of these guys had long tenures with the Phils, few came from the Phils farm, and few were dominant for more than 1 season. Even Randy Wolf, never reached full potential. Gavin Floyd didn't stick and Madson hasn't even elevated to closer - yet.

So I luv Drabek like the next fan - but you gotta wonder what the odds are of him coming up and giving us even 5 years that are equal to Doc Halladays best 5 or median 5 - or the 3-4 we'd get if we had him and then resigned him for 3 more?

i'm definitely not saying no to halladay. i think he'd be an awesome fit. more valuable to the phillies than other teams and more obtainable. the only problem is that i wouldn't overpay.

halladay for taylor or drabek, but not both, plus maybe some guys not in our top 10-- that would be fine. just keep in mind that you're trading six years of a player for one season and a couple of draft picks. but halladay is a sure thing and taylor and drabek aren't.

here's the way to value it. halladay is worth about six wins over replacement. he costs $15.75MM. if they went and spent that on free agents, that would buy them 3.5 wins. the two picks from letting halladay go, that's worth about 1.1 wins when you consider the odds of them panning out, the benefit of having them on the cheap for six years if they do. halladay's worth 6.0-3.5+1.1=3.6 wins.

a top prospect is worth probably just shy of that when you consider the odds of them panning out, the benefit of having them on the cheap for six years. i think about 3.5 wins or so.

of course there's other factors, but this gets you pretty close.

keep in mind, though, that it doesn't guarantee success in the playoffs. remember maddux/glavine/smoltz? one flag. 95. that's it. get good players and try to win. the odds of having an ace in the playoffs are overrated (though definitely better for strikeout-pitchers than control pitchers).

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 19:28:49

philliesphhan wrote:P layers rarely show loyalty to the fans though Utley did give us a discount

utley's contract turned out to be a discount. given the projections of his career at the time, it was fair. no one expected him to actually get better than he already was.

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