The fans voted for him

No Halladay yet? What a bunch of bull-shit.

Swiggers wrote:

smitty wrote:The only other one in Phils history was Juan Samuel I guess. He hit 28 home runs one year and slugged .502. But he had a lot of years with slg pcts. less than .400 which surprised me. He also was a pretty bad 2Bman and he didn't get on bas all that well and he didn't last long as a regular.

I still have no idea why he's in the Phils' HOF. Has our history really been that horrid?

Seriously join the We Love Jayson Werth Fan Club on facebook. It's been a real jarring look at how utterly stupid the average fan is. It makes philaphans look like a discussion between Bill James and Nate Silver.

I guess I used to listen to 610, so I once knew, but mostly had blocked it out.

jerseyhoya, the problem with you is you don't have any heart and you're not gritty enough. You need guys like Juan Samuel and Rex Huddler and Aaron Rowand and Eric Bruntlett and Gregg Garrity and Reggie Evans and Larry Bowa and Tim Hauck and Shavlik Randolph and Bob Dernier if you're going to win championships; guys who are willing to get dirty and do anything to help you win.

mozartpc27 wrote:jerseyhoya, the problem with you is you don't have any heart and you're not gritty enough. You need guys like Juan Samuel and Rex Huddler and Aaron Rowand and Eric Bruntlett and Gregg Garrity and Reggie Evans and Larry Bowa and Tim Hauck and Shavlik Randolph and Bob Dernier if you're going to win championships; guys who are willing to get dirty and do anything to help you win.

"Anything"?

jerseyhoya wrote:

Swiggers wrote:

smitty wrote:The only other one in Phils history was Juan Samuel I guess. He hit 28 home runs one year and slugged .502. But he had a lot of years with slg pcts. less than .400 which surprised me. He also was a pretty bad 2Bman and he didn't get on bas all that well and he didn't last long as a regular.

I still have no idea why he's in the Phils' HOF. Has our history really been that horrid?

Seriously join the We Love Jayson Werth Fan Club on facebook. It's been a real jarring look at how utterly stupid the average fan is. It makes philaphans look like a discussion between Bill James and Nate Silver.

I guess I used to listen to 610, so I once knew, but mostly had blocked it out.

The radio isn't even as bad as groups like that anymore. I think because the team is successful now, they tend to shoot down the really big idiots when they call with their moronic ideas.

Lets assess the Halladay thing from Toronto's perspective.

# 3 year/$40M (2008-10)

* signed extension with Toronto 3/06
* 08:$10M, 09:$14.25M, 10:$15.75M
* award bonus: $0.125M for All Star selection
* no-trade clause

Halladay essentially controls his own destiny. Toronto is trying to slash payroll, they're moving toward deploying more of their resources into scouting and evaluation (which is good), and they know they're not competing in 2010. They already gave away Alex Rios for free. Their opening day payroll

2008: $97.9M
2009: $80.6M

If you assume a few million dollars in arb raises, they are going to see their payroll increase to the $85M range or so. Halladay would be taking up about 19% of their team payroll, on a team that isn't going to win anything. They have to trade him. They know that if he stays, they're likely going to have to settle for a marginal return at the deadline, even more marginal than they would have gotten last July, and more marginal than they can get now. Plus, Halladay could always use his NTC and kill any deal, which again hamstrings them.

Lots of teams around baseball are slashing payroll. The Tigers, a team who has sported a huge payroll over the last 5 years, is considering trading one of the franchise cornerstones (Granderson) and one of their best young SP (Jackson). The Padres are looking to dump Adrian Gonzalez and his bargain bin contract to shoot for a $40M payroll. The Marlins are getting rid of anyone making over $3M a year. Who are the realistic suitors to acquire a $16M pitcher?

Yankees (goes without saying, obviously)
Red Sox (they have about $60M under the luxury tax cap right now)
Mets (they think they're contenders, so does the media)
Angels (love pitching, love Halladay, but will he go to the West Coast?)
Dodgers (they probably don't have the money, what with the scandalous McCourt divorce right now)
Cardinals (they don't have the pitching prospects, and with a Pujols extension looming, they probably don't have the money)

Really, those are the teams. AA has said that he wouldn't hesitate to trade him within the division. But I believe JP said that too, and then balked when the Sox offered him a sweet package for Halladay in July. You'd think the preference is to trade him outside the division. And the preference is also to trade him to somewhere that he'd waive his NTC for. If you believe the speculation, he wanted to come to Philly last year. He sees Philly as an ideal fit. So when the Toronto front office goes to him and approaches him about a deal, hes surely going to express a desire to come to Philly.

As far as prospects go, the Red Sox have probably the most depth of the above listed teams. They have two legit studs in Westmoreland (OF) and Kelly (RHP/SS) and then a bunch of second tier guys. The Yankees have one stud prospect (Montero) who is going to be a DH in the future or possibly a 1B. The Mets system kind of sucks. They have the consistently overhyped Fernando Martinez, and then two highly projectable guys in Jenry Mejia and Wilmer Flores. Both guys are at least 2-3 years away from being MLB ready. After that they have Ike Davis, who Mets fans seem to think is the second coming, but is really basically a platoon player at 1B with average to above defense. The Angels farm system is pretty barren at this point. Brandon Wood is I guess still a prospect, but hes kind of outgrown that. They have a few interesting arms, but no blue chip guys. The Dodgers system is still in the 2nd half of the top 30, they have depth, but no impact guys that are near ready. They do have a lot of young talent on the MLB roster. Cardinals definitely don't have the prospects.

So really, I think again its realistically a 3 team race for Halladay. I think we should offer Happ, Taylor, and one player outside of our top 12-15 prospects for Halladay. Taylor is borderline MLB ready, Happ obviously is ready. If the Red Sox want to give them Casey Kelly and Buchholz, then obviously thats a deal they should probably make. But I don't see either of those teams giving up their elite prospects. We'll see.

FTN - I like your line of thinking but don't you think realistically that Rube has to include some payroll (say a Blanton) in return to help offset the increase Halladay brings to the books?

stevemc wrote:FTN - I like your line of thinking but don't you think realistically that Rube has to include some payroll (say a Blanton) in return to help offset the increase Halladay brings to the books?

Might make more sense to move him in a separate trade.

The Jays arent going to want Blanton at $7M.

I could see the Angels being interested.

Blanton for Brandon Wood?

Grotewold wrote:

stevemc wrote:FTN - I like your line of thinking but don't you think realistically that Rube has to include some payroll (say a Blanton) in return to help offset the increase Halladay brings to the books?

Might make more sense to move him in a separate trade.

That's fine with me. I can't realistically think that we can just pull off a Halladay trade with minor leaguers and not shave something out of the ML payroll. And it doesn't have to be Blanton of course although his $/importance assuming you add Halladay makes the most sense.

stevemc wrote:

Grotewold wrote:

stevemc wrote:FTN - I like your line of thinking but don't you think realistically that Rube has to include some payroll (say a Blanton) in return to help offset the increase Halladay brings to the books?

Might make more sense to move him in a separate trade.

That's fine with me. I can't realistically think that we can just pull off a Halladay trade with minor leaguers and not shave something out of the ML payroll. And it doesn't have to be Blanton of course although his $/importance assuming you add Halladay makes the most sense.

Agreed

stevemc wrote:

Grotewold wrote:

stevemc wrote:FTN - I like your line of thinking but don't you think realistically that Rube has to include some payroll (say a Blanton) in return to help offset the increase Halladay brings to the books?

Might make more sense to move him in a separate trade.

That's fine with me. I can't realistically think that we can just pull off a Halladay trade with minor leaguers and not shave something out of the ML payroll. And it doesn't have to be Blanton of course although his $/importance assuming you add Halladay makes the most sense.

Happ's not a minor leaguer though

The trick, though, would be to off-load Cupcakes and not use Happ to get Halladay. Otherwise you're left with Moyer and Kendrick in the rotation.

This is going to happen

I think its almost a near certainty that Blanton outperforms Happ in 2010.

If im the Phillies, I make the deal, use Happ, and take the payroll higher in 2010, with the intention of scaling back in 2011. In 2011 you're rid of Romero and Moyer, which is like 10M of salary in 2010. Blanton would be a FA, as would Lee.

I'd take the payroll to $155M this year, fully knowing that they can scale it back the following year

In 2011, it looks like this

Ruiz: Final arb year?
Howard: $20
Utley: $15
Rollins: $8.5
Ibanez: $11.5
Victorino: Final arb year
Francisco: Second year of arb

Hamels: $9.5
Lidge: $11.5
Madson: $4.5

Thats $80.5M. Add in like 11M for Shane, $3M for Ruiz, and $1M for Francisco (those are just random, not scientific), and that's like $15M, so $95M. Lets just assume that we sign Beltre this winter at 3/24 with an even AAV distribution, so $8M. That brings us to like $103M. And we'd have

C - Ruiz, 1B - Howard, 2B - Utley, 3B - Beltre, SS - Rollins, LF - Ibanez, CF - Victorino, RF - ??

SP - Hamels, SP x 4 - ??

And then our bullpen.

So with $103M, we'd have like 30M or so to fill RF and the 4 rotation spots plus the bullpen. If Domonic Brown continues to progress, I think he'll be ready to play by 2011. He won't be peaking, but you can ease him in assuming Taylor is used in a trade to get Halladay. A platoon of Francisco and Brown would be pretty damn good I think. Not Werth-good, but good. Give Halladay a 4/80 deal with a vesting option based on IP, and backload the deal slightly. $17M, $19M, $22M, $22M.

If you give him $17M in 2011, then you're at $120M to fill out 3 rotation spots plus the pen. Drabek will be ready and make the minimum. So you've got $10M for 2 starters plus the pen

I like that plan.

FTN wrote:I think its almost a near certainty that Blanton outperforms Happ in 2010.

If im the Phillies, I make the deal, use Happ, and take the payroll higher in 2010, with the intention of scaling back in 2011. In 2011 you're rid of Romero and Moyer, which is like 10M of salary in 2010. Blanton would be a FA, as would Lee.

I'd take the payroll to $155M this year, fully knowing that they can scale it back the following year

In 2011, it looks like this

Ruiz: Final arb year?
Howard: $20
Utley: $15
Rollins: $8.5
Ibanez: $11.5
Victorino: Final arb year
Francisco: Second year of arb

Hamels: $9.5
Lidge: $11.5
Madson: $4.5

Thats $80.5M. Add in like 11M for Shane, $3M for Ruiz, and $1M for Francisco (those are just random, not scientific), and that's like $15M, so $95M. Lets just assume that we sign Beltre this winter at 3/24 with an even AAV distribution, so $8M. That brings us to like $103M. And we'd have

C - Ruiz, 1B - Howard, 2B - Utley, 3B - Beltre, SS - Rollins, LF - Ibanez, CF - Victorino, RF - ??

SP - Hamels, SP x 4 - ??

And then our bullpen.

So with $103M, we'd have like 30M or so to fill RF and the 4 rotation spots. If Domonic Brown continues to progress, I think he'll be ready to play by 2011. He won't be peaking, but you can ease him in assuming Taylor is used in a trade to get Halladay. A platoon of Francisco and Brown would be pretty damn good I think. Not Werth-good, but good. Give Halladay a 4/80 deal with a vesting option based on IP, and backload the deal slightly. $17M, $19M, $22M, $22M.

If you give him $17M in 2011, then you're at $120M to fill out 3 rotation spots. Drabek will be ready and make the minimum. So you've got $10M to play with for 2 starters, and depending on the economy/ticket sales, you could have even more.

I like that plan.

Makes a lot of sense.

Will Toronto take Happ and Taylor? Would the Phillies offer them? I can't believe the Phillies front office doesn't see Happ for what he is. I also think Toronto could sell Happ to their fan base based on his 2008. Taylor's numbers also would speak for themselves..... and for the Phillies he's really blocked for now, with Brown being the eventual replacement for Ibanez. Thrown in a Kendrick or a Carpenter, right?

I can't believe Toronto would trade him to the Red Sox and I can't believe the Sox would give up Buchholz for him (like the Phillies would trade Hamels for him..hahahhaha. well I would but whatever)

If you push the payroll to $155M this year, you're going to catch all kinds of hell if you try to dial it back the next year.

not with that rotation for this year

There will be people coming out of the woodwork accusing the owners of being cheap if they press the issue and then try to back off. Because they'll either be accused of ...


1. Winning another WFC and being satisfied -- not willing to do what it takes to stay a contender.

or

2. The team won't win a WFC and the owners will be accused of not being willing to do what it takes to field a winner.