cartersDad26 wrote:Valid points but this team is obviously poised to win now - go all in and get Halladay. Worry about 2011 in the afterglow of a world championship.

You know this is absurd, right?

Yeah lets not do this. While we're at it lets call Cleveland and reverse the Lee deal too.

Warszawa wrote:Yeah lets not do this. While we're at it lets call Cleveland and reverse the Lee deal too.

Strawman ftmfw

FTN wrote:
2011 and beyond will be challenging no matter what because a large amount of the team will either be gone or ridiculously expensive to retain. 2010 is the golden opportunity.

if going all-in for 2010 is signing beltre/figgins (that's become a toss-up for me) and trading happ for halladay AND signing halladay to a contract, 2011 and beyond doesn't look so terrible to me.

halladay and utley are, all by themselves, a very strong core.

the biggest challenges will be successfully trading some of our outfield talent (ideally victorino, or, in my dreams, ibanez) for a desperately needed shortstop before it's too late, and, of course, hoping that most of our best prospects develop into good major leaguers.

I wouldn't trade for Halladay if I had to give up more than Taylor or Brown plus Happ and filler, if that makes people happier. No way do I give up 2/3 of Taylor, Brown, and Drabek, as some have suggested we would "have" to do - if they weren't willing to do that over the summer, why would they do it now?

philliesphhan wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:Hamels, Halladay, Drabek, and two pickups in the rotation? Count me out.

I assume you're talking about 2011, so what would you prefer? If Lee doesn't sign an extension, the rotation will be Hamels, Happ, Drabek, and two pickups.

I'd try to sign Lee or use that money to get one of the other big free agent pitchers out there (Halladay, Lackey, Webb). I think we have enough talent to retool on the fly, but that's just my opinion. We'll have Utley and we can probably afford one or two of the other big guys. If Brown and Taylor continue to develop, they can be inserted into the lineup or used to trade for other similar players at other positions. We could afford to trade Marson et al for Lee and still have some depth. Another trade like that would leave us pretty thin, and that's without knowing how much losing Arbunkle is going to cost our development.

But if we can get Halladay without giving up some of our top guys, then I would certainly be happy about it. I just don't think that's realistic.

cartersDad26 wrote:Valid points but this team is obviously poised to win now - go all in and get Halladay. Worry about 2011 in the afterglow of a world championship.

If we were guaranteed a world championship, I would agree. But that's not how it works. I think you win the most championships in the long run by being very good every year and making the playoffs (Braves notwithstanding). If you take a dive after 2010 or 2011, the bandwagon fanbase goes back into the woodwork and you can't afford to do much of anything because the payroll drops. But if you stay good, the attendance keeps up and you can make a run at it nearly every year. There will be down years, of course, but not bad enough to lose the fanbase. Most of us are old enough to know what that's like.... it ain't pretty.

Warszawa wrote:Yeah lets not do this. While we're at it lets call Cleveland and reverse the Lee deal too.

I didn't see anyone saying anything close to that. Rube robbed the Indians as far as I'm concerned. If he can rob the Blue Jays, go for it.

The Phillies aren't going to "take a dive", because the payroll isn't going to go from $140M to $75M. But the reality is, after 2011 the core of this team will be gone. Its unlikely Howard and Rollins are going to take sweetheart hometown deals, especially since Rollins' current deal turned out to be well below market value. Utley is likely to be the only regular still here, and we're going to see a completely different team. Luckily for us, our low minors are stacked with a bunch of interesting guys who could turn into above average MLB palyers.

I'm focused hard on 2010 and 2011, simply because the MLB team is constructed perfectly to win in those 2 years. I'll take 4 straight pennants and 2 rings, then spend 2012 assessing what to do in terms of re-loading the big league team and living without Howard, Rollins, Victorino and Hamels

There will be a year at some point in the next four when the Phils have to retool and see their payroll drop pretty significantly. I think 2012 makes the most sense for that, as that's around when all the currently identifiable prospects in the system should be showing up in Philadelphia, with the ones who are closest now (Drabek, Brown) starting to establish themselves as quality big-leaguers, as well as when the books clear of pretty much everyone we have now other than Utley. You'll have him and probably 1-2 others from the current core to provide some stability; after that year, you see what you have and what you need and go out to aggressively fill in the holes.

Smuggles seems to grasp that a team with strong but not unlimited financial resources like the Phillies will always need a homegrown core signed to relatively team-friendly contracts as the basis for a contender. As the current core dissolves as a result of age and cost, the idea is to transition to the next one as quickly and painlessly as possible. Meanwhile, we have two more years to go after trophies. No reason not to be aggressive, so long as it doesn't unduly damage the "next core."

Monkeyboy wrote:

Warszawa wrote:Yeah lets not do this. While we're at it lets call Cleveland and reverse the Lee deal too.

I didn't see anyone saying anything close to that. Rube robbed the Indians as far as I'm concerned. If he can rob the Blue Jays, go for it.

Did he rob Cleveland though? In 2008 a lot of people would never have given up Marson and Donald right? Knapp was one of the top Phillies pitching prospects when the trade was made - the shoulder surgery could end being a minor deal or not. We could also be sitting here 6 months from now looking at Happ's 5.40 ERA, Halladay's 10-1 record for the Red Sox, and Cole Hamels trying to learn a third pitch.

I really don't see how anyone couldn't be excited by a rotation with BOTH Halladay and Lee. I mean, really? Even if it sacrifices some of the future? That rotation would be fucking unbelievable. That's "tell your grandkids about 40 years later absurdly good shit"

Warszawa wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:

Warszawa wrote:Yeah lets not do this. While we're at it lets call Cleveland and reverse the Lee deal too.

I didn't see anyone saying anything close to that. Rube robbed the Indians as far as I'm concerned. If he can rob the Blue Jays, go for it.

Did he rob Cleveland though? In 2008 a lot of people would never have given up Marson and Donald right? Knapp was one of the top Phillies pitching prospects when the trade was made - the shoulder surgery could end being a minor deal or not. We could also be sitting here 6 months from now looking at Happ's 5.40 ERA, Halladay's 10-1 record for the Red Sox, and Cole Hamels trying to learn a third pitch.

Maybe not "rob," but he was able to make a deal without giving up our top guys. I would be fine with another trade like that. Remember, we also got Francisco in that deal.

Bakestar wrote:

cartersDad26 wrote:Valid points but this team is obviously poised to win now - go all in and get Halladay. Worry about 2011 in the afterglow of a world championship.

You know this is absurd, right?

no, i don't know that, and i'm not the only one.

cartersDad26 wrote:

Bakestar wrote:

cartersDad26 wrote:Valid points but this team is obviously poised to win now - go all in and get Halladay. Worry about 2011 in the afterglow of a world championship.

You know this is absurd, right?

no, i don't know that, and i'm not the only one.

Halladay might improve their chances of winning the world series from about 1 in 8 to around 1 in 4.

Monkeyboy wrote:

Warszawa wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:

Warszawa wrote:Yeah lets not do this. While we're at it lets call Cleveland and reverse the Lee deal too.

I didn't see anyone saying anything close to that. Rube robbed the Indians as far as I'm concerned. If he can rob the Blue Jays, go for it.

Did he rob Cleveland though? In 2008 a lot of people would never have given up Marson and Donald right? Knapp was one of the top Phillies pitching prospects when the trade was made - the shoulder surgery could end being a minor deal or not. We could also be sitting here 6 months from now looking at Happ's 5.40 ERA, Halladay's 10-1 record for the Red Sox, and Cole Hamels trying to learn a third pitch.

Maybe not "rob," but he was able to make a deal without giving up our top guys. I would be fine with another trade like that. Remember, we also got Francisco in that deal.

We don't have any more "not top guys." Right now, we have top guys, and other guys. Other guys don't get you Roy Halladay.

Happ, Taylor, and an other guy, I would pull the trigger on in 2.3 seconds.

mcare89 wrote:We don't have any more "not top guys." Right now, we have top guys, and other guys. Other guys don't get you Roy Halladay.

Happ, Taylor, and an other guy, I would pull the trigger on in 2.3 seconds.

Completely agree. Amaro took advantage of the situation in Cleveland, you can't "expect" that to happen again. Savery and Gose isn't going to get it done. You have to give up someone of value. Happ, presumably coming off ROY, Taylor and a filler should be enough. The Jays can save face to the fan base by having Taylor starting for them on Opening Day and Happ in the rotation.

Toronto's huge selling point last year was "you get Halladay for 2 postseasons." That's gone. The price has gone down and it was outlined earlier, how many teams realistically can even afford to take on Halladay? The Phillies meet all the conditions and i'd like for a deal to happen. The proverbial "window" may be closed after 2011, and i want to go out without any bullets left in my chamber.

I consider the following guys the potential impact prospects in our system

Brown
Taylor
Drabek
May
D'Arnaud
Santana
Cosart
Colvin (cant be traded yet)

So those are obviously the guys you want to try and hold onto. But no one is off limits. If its Drabek and a fringe guy for Halladay, and hes willing to sign a peachy 4 year extension with backloaded money, then Im ok with that, even though I love Drabek.

I think if you're going to give up two guys from the list above, you should avoid giving up two of Taylor, Drabek and Taylor, as they are the three biggest prospects in the system.

If you can build a deal around Gose, you do it. You definitely do it.

Lee wants a "Sabathia type deal" and will not give the Phillies any type of hometown discount to keep him. He said there is "no chance" the Phillies will give that to him, and they aren't even in the same ballpark in terms of any facet of the contract. He fully intends to hit free agency after next year.
-Jayson Stark

ok, go get Halladay.

I find it hard to believe that Lee - the type of guy that he is - would tell Jayson Stark that there is "no chance" that the Phillies give him his money, and that he won't give them any discount. Stark probably heard that from one of his great sources, who also told him that Feliz would likely return.