Phillies realistically in it for Halladay?

by **Bakestar** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 18:44:25

So now we're flying off the handle about Lee and the apparently 100%itude that he's not going to re-sign in Philly.

by **JFLNYC** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 18:48:56

I missed the "flying off the handle" part.

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 19:40:52

Bakestar wrote:So now we're flying off the handle about Lee and the apparently 100%itude that he's not going to re-sign in Philly.

i'm enjoying the fact that lee wanting cc sabathia money somehow changed the story. as though his contract desires have a bigger effect on his contract than his actual value. he wasn't signing a deal with the phillies to be nice to all of us any more than the owners are being nice to us if they sign him.

his value is not 7/$161 but it could be a 4/$80 extension or a 5/$95 if they wait. it's like the scott boras thing whereby people think that players who sign with scott boras are being convinced to want more money that was somehow always available to them, rather than boras signs the guys who are going to make the most money in the first place more often.

by **lethal** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 19:54:22

JFLNYC wrote:Of course that's the way you'd want to go from a talent standpoint. The problem is that, without reducing payroll, you're going to end up at $150MM - $155MM. Although Floppy and I have already decided we're willing to do that for one year, we've yet to get the concurrence of Phillies ownership. I hope they do so, but I think you need a less expensive Plan B.

That Plan B could be simply not to acquire Halladay. But it looks right now as though Lee has no intention of re-signing here and Halladay, if traded, will get a contract extension so he won't be available to sign as a FA. Unless you get Halladay now, you will have neither after 2010. So the point I'm trying to make is that, if: (a) you can't afford both this year; and (b) you want one of them after 2010, the Plan B might very well be to trade Lee and acquire Halladay before he's gone elsewhere and signed a long-term deal.

There's no reports that Lee won't sign in Philly. He just won't give a discount. He's looking for market value, which is somewhere less than CC Sabathia and somewhere more than AJ Burnett. If the Phillies are willing to give him that deal, I'm sure he'd sign.

by **Bakestar** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 20:02:30

And also, jeez, it's called an "opening position." Ask for CC money, "settle" for Zambrano+.

by **jeff2sf** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 20:40:34

MattS wrote:
Bakestar wrote:So now we're flying off the handle about Lee and the apparently 100%itude that he's not going to re-sign in Philly.

i'm enjoying the fact that lee wanting cc sabathia money somehow changed the story. as though his contract desires have a bigger effect on his contract than his actual value. he wasn't signing a deal with the phillies to be nice to all of us any more than the owners are being nice to us if they sign him.

his value is not 7/$161 but it could be a 4/$80 extension or a 5/$95 if they wait. it's like the scott boras thing whereby people think that players who sign with scott boras are being convinced to want more money that was somehow always available to them, rather than boras signs the guys who are going to make the most money in the first place more often.

Matt, I just don't believe that all players sign for all the money available to them. The people who sign for all the money available are not bad people (per se). However, their "risk neutrality" in not valuing security highly, or comfort level of their current situation, or even occasionally not wanting to seem greedy makes a deal harder to strike because you don't have any inherent advantage over the market.

As for signing with Boras, actually I think that DOES say something about what you think is important (money). There are plenty of agents that can strike a pretty reasonable deal - Boras seems to want to make it acrimonious (at least with the amateurs).

by **JFLNYC** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 20:45:58

lethal wrote:There's no reports that Lee won't sign in Philly.

Lee wants a "Sabathia type deal" and will not give the Phillies any type of hometown discount to keep him. He said there is "no chance" the Phillies will give that to him, and they aren't even in the same ballpark in terms of any facet of the contract. He fully intends to hit free agency after next year.
-Jayson Stark

We're working on the best info we have right now for purposes of this discussion. But based on what we know (which could be wrong or outdated -- but it's what we know right now), things don't look good. Lee could change his mind. The Phillies could change their policy. But if you wait to find out and Halladay is traded somewhere else and signs a new deal, you risk having neither in 2010.

It's just a discussion of contingency plans. That's all. If you want to just assume Lee will re-sign and all this is just posturing, no problem. I hope you're right. I just think it's prudent (and fun) to talk about contingencies in case everything doesn't go right.

by **Philly the Kid** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 20:51:05

THere;s a part of me that doesn't think we can sustain greatness for long - and rather just go balls out right now. Make another run next and forget 2011 or 12, let whatever happen happen -- maybe Lee is no good after next year, maybe Halladay starts to decline, maybe Hamels has a 3rd pitch mastered and find some zen guru and Drabek is all that was hoped and we don't care...

2010 -- balls out, pedal to metal -- 3-pearance WFC 2.0!!

by **FTN** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 20:56:11

Lee obviously hates Philadelphia.

But the one bright spot is, knowing the composition of the Mets, he'd never sign there.

by **philliesphhan** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 20:56:23

JFLNYC wrote:
lethal wrote:There's no reports that Lee won't sign in Philly.

Lee wants a "Sabathia type deal" and will not give the Phillies any type of hometown discount to keep him. He said there is "no chance" the Phillies will give that to him, and they aren't even in the same ballpark in terms of any facet of the contract. He fully intends to hit free agency after next year.
-Jayson Stark

We're working on the best info we have right now for purposes of this discussion. But based on what we know (which could be wrong or outdated -- but it's what we know right now), things don't look good. Lee could change his mind. The Phillies could change their policy. But if you wait to find out and Halladay is traded somewhere else and signs a new deal, you risk having neither in 2010.

It's just a discussion of contingency plans. That's all. If you want to just assume Lee will re-sign and all this is just posturing, no problem. I hope you're right. I just think it's prudent (and fun) to talk about contingencies in case everything doesn't go right.

Jayson Stark sources are always too fishy for me. There's little to "no chance" Lee even said that. In fact, I'm sure he didn't.

by **FTN** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 20:57:25

yeah but Stark obviously knows everyone within the Phillies front office and the locker room. Why would he make stuff up about the Phillies, especially things that seem to hurt the Phillies, when hes basically Phillies fan #1

Website · by **Wolfgang622** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 20:57:43

FTN wrote:Lee obviously hates Philadelphia.

But the one bright spot is, knowing the composition of the Mets, he'd never sign there.

Too many latinos.

by **lethal** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 20:58:10

JFLNYC wrote:
lethal wrote:There's no reports that Lee won't sign in Philly.

Lee wants a "Sabathia type deal" and will not give the Phillies any type of hometown discount to keep him. He said there is "no chance" the Phillies will give that to him, and they aren't even in the same ballpark in terms of any facet of the contract. He fully intends to hit free agency after next year.
-Jayson Stark

We're working on the best info we have right now for purposes of this discussion. But based on what we know (which could be wrong or outdated -- but it's what we know right now), things don't look good. Lee could change his mind. The Phillies could change their policy. But if you wait to find out and Halladay is traded somewhere else and signs a new deal, you risk having neither in 2010.

It's just a discussion of contingency plans. That's all. If you want to just assume Lee will re-sign and all this is just posturing, no problem. I hope you're right. I just think it's prudent (and fun) to talk about contingencies in case everything doesn't go right.

It might've been worthwhile to quote the entirety of my post with the Lee wants to sign for market value portion.

by **lethal** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 20:59:53

FTN wrote:yeah but Stark obviously knows everyone within the Phillies front office and the locker room. Why would he make stuff up about the Phillies, especially things that seem to hurt the Phillies, when hes basically Phillies fan #1

Stark said that the Phillies would pick up the Feliz option the day before they announced that they wouldn't. How good are his sources?

by **FTN** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 21:00:35

I think he said it was likely.

Hes not going to be 100% right, obviously.

by **Philly the Kid** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 21:11:16

Let's just see what happens.

Halladay as we know is unlikely. But hey, ya never know...

Lee could be re-signed but let's see how he performs next year, we don't know yet?

Hamels if he cares about his career in Baseball, is likely to take steps this offseason to get his head and body in a better place, maybe work on some other things in his arsenal. We should be in the hunt next year -- and if Lee ends up being a Cy Young candidate next year and or the only stable consistent guy a true ace -- then we might give him whatever he wants... but he becomes inconsistent as well -- his leverage could do down -- let's see what happens too -- winning a WFC ring changes things a lot, not winning one also changes things.

It's just too soon to be worrying about Lee I think.

by **Bakestar** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 21:14:53

Anyone else want Happ to win ROY because it just enhances his "sell high" status?

Flip side, it could render him untradeable for P.R. purposes... but even for Halladay?

by **Philly the Kid** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 21:20:16

Bakestar wrote:Anyone else want Happ to win ROY because it just enhances his "sell high" status?

Flip side, it could render him untradeable for P.R. purposes... but even for Halladay?

The question is, couild Happ get even better? Did we see the best he'll ever be? If so, then yeah, I hope we can "sell high", if not, given the more likely realities of this offseason I like his youth and confidence... and hope he can improve

by **TenuredVulture** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 21:21:09

Here's what I think--the Phils won't get Halladay. They'll make an offer, but another team (probably the Red Sox) will make a better one. I really think that to beat whatever the Red Sox offer will be more than most of us want to give up.

by **philliesphhan** » Sun Nov 15, 2009 21:35:50

Philly the Kid wrote:
Bakestar wrote:Anyone else want Happ to win ROY because it just enhances his "sell high" status?

Flip side, it could render him untradeable for P.R. purposes... but even for Halladay?

The question is, couild Happ get even better? Did we see the best he'll ever be? If so, then yeah, I hope we can "sell high", if not, given the more likely realities of this offseason I like his youth and confidence... and hope he can improve

He had a 2.93 ERA. I'm not sure even the biggest Happ supporter could spin it that he could get even better. I mean, that's a 145 ERA+. Even Carlton only did better than that in non-strike season 4 times.

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